Feb 10, 2025; Oklahoma City, Oklahoma, USA; Oklahoma City Thunder guard Isaiah Joe (11), center Isaiah Hartenstein (55), forward Chet Holmgren (7), guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (2), forward Jalen Williams (8) and guard Luguentz Dort (5) watch the end of a game against the New Orleans Pelicans at Paycom Center. Mandatory Credit: Alonzo Adams-Imagn Images Alonzo Adams-Imagn Images

ESPN Pundits Hammer Over on OKC Thunder Win Total

Originally posted on Oklahoma City Thunder on SI
By Rylan Stiles | Last updated Aug 1, 2025 3:00 PM ET

The Oklahoma City Thunder are embarking on another season of loud expectations. After rattling off back to back No. 1 seeds in the Western Conference, crescendoing in a 68-win campaign a year ago en route to the team's first NBA championship.

On the latest edition of the Hoop Collective Podcast, the ESPN panel of basketball experts went through the entire Western Conference and gave their prediction on whether teams would hit the over or the under. In the end, the trio all hammered the over on the Thunder.

"It ain't like they went all in to get 68 last year. Chet [Holmgren] missed half the year, [Isaiah Hartenstein] missed a ton of time, they managed [Alex] Caruso's minutes very carefully...I think they win 60 some odd games and if it is going to be some odd, I will say more than 63," ESPN analyst Tim McMahon said.

With the over/under, ESPN was working on coming in at 62.5 wins; it only makes sense to take the over. Oklahoma City blew past that mark a year ago despite only being healthy for 8.5% of the season.

"I am taking the over. For all the reasons you said. They didn't go all in last year and they won 68. I don't think they are six wins worse," co-host Tim Bontemps chimed in. "They should be better than last year! They are a young team that all got more experience and will probably have better health."

This almost feels too low, as though a suckers bet. However, it is the largest number in the league and anything more than 62.3 wins couldn't fetch a single over bet, as wise gamblers wouldn't have much upside or protection from potential disaster.

"I can't go under on the Thunder. The number is too reasonable to go under. I think [the odd makers] are begging you to take the over," Brian Windhorst concluded.

Oklahoma City is vying for its third straight No. 1 seed in the Western Conference during the 2025-26 campaign as the Thunder attempt to defend its title.