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ESPN's Computer Predicts Winner Of Every First Round Playoff Game

Originally posted on The Spun | By Matt Hladik | Last updated Dec 18, 2024 5:38 PM ET

The first-ever 12-team College Football Playoff begins this weekend with four first-round games at on-campus sites.

Things get underway Friday night when seventh-seeded Notre Dame hosts No. 10 Indiana (8 p.m. ET, ABC/ESPN). On Saturday, No. 6 Penn State and No. 11 SMU (noon ET, TNT/Max) kick off a tripleheader, followed by No. 5 Texas vs. No. 12 Clemson (4 p.m. ET, TNT/Max) and No. 8 Ohio State against No. 9 Tennessee (8 p.m. et, ABC/ESPN) in the nightcap.

ESPN Analytics has unveiled its Matchup Predictor for each game, and the computer favors the four higher seeds, all of whom are playing at home.

Notre Dame has a 70.4% chance of beating Indiana.
Penn State has 67.2% chance of beating SMU.
Texas has an 80.4% chance of beating Clemson.
Ohio State has a 65.4% chance of beating Tennessee.

Those are four chalky results, but keep in mind this is just how the computer is forecasting things. Wild stuff tends to happen when the games actually start.

ATLANTA, GA - DECEMBER 31: A general view of the CFP logo before the college football Playoff Semifinal game at the Chick-fil-a Peach Bowl between the Georgia Bulldogs and the Ohio State Buckeyes on December 31, 2022 at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, Georgia. (Photo by Michael Wade/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)Icon Sportswire/Getty Images

The Penn State-SMU winner will advance to take on third-seeded Boise State in one CFP quarterfinal at the Fiesta Bowl on Dec. 31. The other three teams that advance will all play on New Year's Day.

No. 4 Arizona State will square off with Texas or Clemson in the Peach Bowl, while top-ranked Oregon awaits the Ohio State-Tennessee winner in the Rose Bowl. Finally, No. 2 Georgia will take on either Notre Dame or Indiana in the Sugar Bowl.

The first College Football Playoff semifinal is set for Friday, Jan. 9 at the Orange Bowl, with the second taking place on Saturday, Jan. 10 at the Cotton Bowl. Finally, the national champion will be crowned on Monday, Jan. 20.

Fans have been waiting for years to see what an expanded playoff will look like, and we're expecting a month of exciting twists and turns. This is truly the most wonderful time of the year for college football fans.

This article first appeared on The Spun and was syndicated with permission.

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