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Here's How Virginia Tech Football Can Make the 2026 College Football Playoff
A College Football Playoff logo helmet at a press conference at The Westin Peachtree Plaza, Savannah Ballroom. Kirby Lee-Imagn Images

One thing to get out of the way: any hope of reaching the College Football Playoff (CFP) relies on Virginia Tech exceeding expectations. After falling below them last year, the Hokies simply cannot afford a major misstep if they want to play beyond a routine bowl game.

The margin for error is razor-thin. Clemson, SMU and Miami should all remain near the top of the ACC standings, meaning that realistically, Tech can only afford two in-conference losses at most if it wants to secure a spot in the ACC Championship game. That game is the primary gateway to the CFP — win it, and the door swings wide open.

There are essentially two clear paths to success for the Hokies this season: either make the ACC title game and win it, earning an automatic bid into the CFP, or build a resume strong enough to warrant serious consideration for an at-large selection. Given the ACC's weaker strength-of-schedule compared to the Big 10 and the SEC, as well as the CFP committee’s tendency to reward quality wins, both options require Tech to be at its absolute best week in and week out.

The minimum expectation for CFP hopes is for the Hokies to finish with at least nine wins. Anything less almost assuredly eliminates them from playoff contention. That means avoiding slip-ups in winnable games and taking care of business early in the year. Looking at the schedule, escaping the first half of the season with a 5-1 record is a realistic, if ambitious, target, provided Tech handles NC State on the road and avenges last season’s frustrating loss to Vanderbilt.

Even if the Hokies hit a few bumps in the latter half of the season, finishing the final six games at 4-2, that could still position them at 9-3 overall. That's a record that, depending on how the chips fall across the conference and the country, might be enough to sneak into the ACC Championship game or remain in the CFP conversation.

But it also means that tiebreakers could come into play. That’s where the schedule poses a challenge. Of last year's three primary contenders — Clemson, SMU and Miami — Virginia Tech only faces Miami this season. That matchup becomes doubly important; a head-to-head win over the Hurricanes not only bolsters the Hokies’ record but could be decisive if the standings tighten up in November.

Georgia Tech is also an interesting sleeper team that could warrant CFP conversation, so beating the Yellow Jackets should be high on the Hokies' priority. Louisville is another team that could be one to watch out for; the Cardinals trounced the Hokies 34-3 in 2023 and went on to the ACC title game that year. Athlon Sports has Louisville slotted at No. 4 in the conference this year in their season preview, so the Cardinals are undoubtedly an important team for Hokies fans to track and a squad that Tech must beat to better its odds of playing in Charlotte on December 6 for the ACC title.

Of course, there's still the unsettling possibility that the Hokies could finish tied with Clemson or SMU without a direct head-to-head tiebreaker advantage, forcing them to sweat out secondary criteria like overall CFP rankings. It underscores why every game matters and why the Hokies must keep their foot on the gas from start to finish.

In short, Virginia Tech’s playoff dreams hinge on threading a very fine needle. They need to pile up wins, avoid compromising stumbles, take down Miami and hope that the ACC doesn't diminish its own reputation through too many internal upsets. It’s a tall task, but for a program eager to reassert itself on the national stage, it’s the exact kind of challenge that could reignite the spark in Blacksburg.

This article first appeared on Virginia Tech on SI and was syndicated with permission.

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