How Do Virginia Tech's FPI Odds Currently Look vs. NC State?

Virginia Tech football has an upcoming clash with NC State this Saturday that will open its ACC slate.

Before I get into how Virginia Tech (1-3) fares against the Wolfpack (3-1, 1-1 ACC) for this upcoming Saturday on ESPN's Football Power Index (FPI), I'll first go through what the FPI actually is:

"FPI is a predictive rating system designed to measure team strength and project performance going forward. The ultimate goal of FPI is not to rank teams 1 through [136]; rather, it is to correctly predict games and season outcomes. If Vegas ever published the power rankings it uses to set its lines, they would likely look quite a lot like FPI. Correctly predicting game outcomes can’t be done by evaluating teams’ records because some teams are stronger than their records indicate (lots of close losses), and others have favorable schedules. Both of these situations are reflected in the game- and season-level projections...

Each team’s FPI rating is composed of a predicted offensive, defensive and special teams component. These ratings represent the number of points each unit is expected to contribute to the team's net scoring margin on a neutral field against an average FBS opponent...

[Preseason] information allows FPI to make predictions (and make determinations on the strength of a team’s opponents) beginning in Week 1, and then it declines in weight as the season progresses. It is important to note that prior seasons’ information never completely disappears, because it has been proved to help with prediction accuracy even at the end of a season. Vegas similarly includes priors when setting its lines.

Once the season is underway, the main piece of information powering these offensive, defensive and special teams predictions is past performance from that season’s games, in terms of expected points added per game. Expected points added, or EPA, is a measure of success/failure that takes into account yards, turnovers, red zone efficiency and more to determine how many points each unit is contributing to the team's scoring margin. For example, if a team wins by an average of 10 points per game, it could be that plus-seven of that is offense, plus-four is defense and minus-one is special teams. Because expected points added is built on play-by-play data, it’s fair to say that FPI looks at every play of every game in the season.

Expected points added on offense, defense and special teams are individually adjusted for each game based on the strength of the opposing unit faced and where the game is played. Additionally, FPI applies a capping of sorts to each of these components to minimize effects of blowout games and improve prediction accuracy. As we learn more about the true ability of each team, FPI retroactively readjusts each game within the season using the team's latest predicted components."

The FPI gives Virginia Tech 36.2% odds of claiming the victory on Saturday; the Hokies are also listed at 10.5-point underdogs on ESPN Bet. Virginia Tech's odds on FPI have decreased 24.6%, from a 60.8% likelihood after Week 2.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.