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Indiana is the Biggest Winner in ESPN FPI's Update Following Week 4
Sep 20, 2025; Bloomington, Indiana, USA; Indiana Hoosiers head coach Curt Cignetti celebrates after defeating the Illinois Fighting Illini at Memorial Stadium. Robert Goddin-Imagn Images

There wasn't a whole lot not to like from Indiana's total destruction of previously No. 9 Illinois on Saturday, as the Hoosiers rolled the Illini 63-10. The win marked the highest point total by a Big Ten team ever against a team ranked in the top 10.

It's impossible to have watched Saturday night's blowout and not walk away entirely impressed by the Indiana operation. You can expect to see the Hoosiers soar up the AP and Coaches Polls on Sunday, but some computer rankings are freshly updated and also giving the Hoosiers a load of love.

ESPN's Football Power Index was updated on Sunday morning and saw Indiana move up 10 spots to No. 6. The outlet also now gives Indiana a 14.8% chance to win the Big Ten, up significantly from a week ago.

What's also interesting is how much Indiana's dominating victory over Illinois shifted how the Hoosiers are seen in their remaining game, as their chances at victory have soared in all according to the formula, and they're now seen as a favorite over one of the nation's top-ranked teams.

Indiana at Iowa - September 27, 3:30 p.m. ET, Peacock

Indiana is now viewed by the formula as having a 78.4% chance of victory this week at Kinnick Stadium. That's up siginificantly from the 63.1% chance it was given a week ago.

Indiana at Oregon - October 11, time and channel TBD

ESPN FPI Chances of Victory: Indiana 31.8%, Oregon 68.2%.

Indiana's chance of victory increased 18.4% since last week

Indiana Hoosiers vs. Michigan State Spartans - Oct. 18, time and channel TBD

ESPN FPI Chances of Victory: Indiana 93.4%, Michigan State 6.6%

Indiana's chance increased 8.6% since last week

Indiana Hoosiers vs. UCLA Bruins - Oct. 25, time and channel TBD

ESPN FPI Chances of Victory: Indiana 98.4%, UCLA 1.6%

Indiana's chance increased 6.5% since last week

Indiana Hoosiers at Maryland Terrapins - Nov. 1, time and channel TBD

ESPN FPI Chances of Victory: Indiana 82.8%, Maryland 17.2%

Indiana's chance increased 12.4% since last week

Indiana Hoosiers at Penn State Nittany Lions - Nov. 8, time and channel TBD

ESPN FPI Chances of Victory: Indiana 51.7%, Penn State 48.3%

Indiana's chances increased 25.9% since last week

Indiana Hoosiers vs. Wisconsin Badgers - Nov. 15, time and channel TBD

ESPN FPI Chances of Victory: Indiana 92.5%, Wisconsin 7.5%

Indiana's chances increased 18.4% since last week

Indiana Hoosiers at Purdue Boilermakers - Nov. 29, 7:30 p.m. ET, NBC

ESPN FPI Chances of Victory: Indiana 93.8%, Purdue 6.2%

Indiana's chances increased 7.7% since last week

ESPN FPI on Indiana's Big Ten, College Football Playoff Chances:

Indiana current FPI ranking: 6, up 10 spots from last week

FPI projected final regular season record for Indiana: 10.4-1.9, up from 8.7-3.3 last week

Indiana's chances to win 6 or more games: 100%, up from 99.4% last week

Indiana's chances to win Big Ten: 14.8%, from 1.8% last week

Make College Football Playoff: 57.4%, up from 22.8% last week

Make National Championship Game: 14.1%, up from 2.2% last week

Win National Championship: 7.5%, up from 0.8% last week

Nick Shepkowski's Quick Takeaway:

The numbers to win the Big Ten are eye-opening, and being more than a 50% pick to make the College Football Playoff is great, but the most surprising thing to me is that Indiana is now seen as a favorite over Penn State in Happy Valley.

You want the arrival of a program to be made official? Penn State was a popular preseason pick as the nation's No. 1, it hasn't lost a game yet (although it hasn't played anyone, either), and the computer now picks the Hoosiers to win that road game.

Obviously, the blowouts increase Indiana's stats that go into building this, but caliber of opponent is also included. It's also worth noting that this system had Indiana as a fairly large favorite against Illinois this past weekend, despite a lot of national experts leaning the way of the Illini.


This article first appeared on Indiana Hoosiers on SI and was syndicated with permission.

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