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Joel Klatt is once again shaking up early-season college football chatter. On Thursday’s episode of “The Joel Klatt Show,” the Fox Sports analyst predicted a ranked upset in Week 2, siding with Baylor to knock off No. 17 SMU. The Bears are 0-1 after falling to Auburn, while the Mustangs cruised past East Texas A&M in their opener.
Still, Klatt sees Baylor’s firepower and urgency as a recipe for an outright win. He even went as far as to call for a 38-34 shootout, highlighting Baylor’s passing attack under quarterback Sawyer Robertson as the difference.
Klatt pointed to Baylor’s close calls inside the 15-yard line against Auburn and the Bears’ ability to move the ball through the air as reasons to believe they are more dangerous than their record suggests.
“They can throw it everywhere. Robertson, their quarterback, has been sensational,” Klatt said. He also noted SMU’s roster turnover, particularly on defense, where just two starters return from last year’s playoff squad. “That is not the same team that made a playoff run last year and played for the ACC championship,” he added.
In his view, Baylor’s urgency to avoid an 0-2 start could fuel the program’s best effort of September.
Baylor’s Offensive Firepower Against SMU’s Defense
The story of this matchup may come down to Robertson’s ability to sustain Baylor’s offensive production against an SMU defense in transition. Against Auburn, Robertson threw for 419 yards and three touchdowns, thriving under pressure despite a minimal run game. Klatt emphasized that if Baylor can clean up its execution in the red zone, they have the tools to outscore nearly anyone.
On the other sideline, SMU is navigating a new defensive identity. With just two returning starters, head coach Rhett Lashlee is relying on younger players to step into significant roles. The Mustangs’ opening win was convincing, but their opponent offered little resistance.
Now, Baylor presents a test in tempo and skill that could expose cracks in a rebuilt unit. Injuries to linebacker Alexander Kilgore and wideout Jordan Hudson only complicate the situation, raising questions about SMU’s depth as conference play looms.
Baylor’s air-heavy offense sets up a contrast with SMU’s balanced attack. While quarterback Kevin Jennings posted an efficient opener and remains the centerpiece of the Mustangs’ offense, the matchup against Baylor’s secondary is more complicated.
The Bears held Auburn’s receivers to 104 yards, showing potential strength on the back end even in defeat. For Klatt, the difference lies in Baylor’s urgency after a missed opportunity, creating the perfect setup for an early-season upset.
Renewing A Rivalry With High Stakes
Saturday’s meeting at Gerald J. Ford Stadium in Dallas revives a historic rivalry between two former Southwest Conference programs. Baylor holds a 37-35-5 advantage in the series, with 12 straight wins against SMU, including a 40-13 victory in their last matchup in 2016. For the first time in nearly a decade, the Bears and Mustangs meet again with national ranking implications.
For Baylor, a win would provide validation after a frustrating opener and strengthen its nonconference resume ahead of a demanding Big 12 slate. For SMU, defending home turf as a ranked team is essential to building momentum in its ACC debut season.
Oddsmakers expect a close game, with the Mustangs a 2.5-point favorite and the total hovering around 65 points. Both teams push tempo at a top-10 national pace, meaning possessions will be plentiful and mistakes magnified.
The Bears’ desperation not to start 0-2 collides with the Mustangs’ ambition to protect a 15-1 home record under Lashlee. Add in Klatt’s public prediction and a midday national broadcast, and this rivalry chapter carries more weight than any in recent memory. A Baylor upset would reshape the Week 2 conversation, while an SMU win would quiet doubts about roster turnover and reinforce the Mustangs’ top-20 status.
The rivalry stage, the betting intrigue, and Klatt’s bold call make this Week 2 matchup one of the most compelling on the slate. Baylor’s response to adversity and SMU’s resilience in transition will determine whether the analyst’s upset pick comes true.
Baylor and SMU's matchup kicks off at noon ET.
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