Latest ESPN FPI rankings should give Tennessee Vols fans a shot of optimism ahead of the 2024 season

The Tennessee Vols could end up being one of the teams that benefit greatly from the college football playoff expansion from 4 teams to 12 in the upcoming season.  That's especially the case if you believe what ESPN has to say about it. 

The "Worldwide Leader" put out their latest FPI rankings, and the Vols checked in at #9 in the nation. The Vols are one spot behind Oklahoma and one ahead of Missouri.

So, what are FPI rankings?  According to ESPN, it is" a power rating that tracks each team's strength relative to an average FBS squad. Teams are rated on offense, defense and special teams, with the values representing points per game."

The FPI rankings also list the chances of the Volunteers to reach a number of different milestones.  The have the Vols with a 0.9% chance of going undefeated, a 95.4% chance to reach 6 wins, a 5.5% chance to win the SEC, a 36.9% chance to make the playoff, a 6% chance to make the national championship game, and a 2.7% chance to win it all. 

Yes, they are - to a substantial degree - arbitrary.  How they calculate a team's chances of making the national championship game, with so many other factors in play including what other teams are going to do, is a bit of hogwash in my opinion.  

However, it appears that ESPN is high on the new faces taking the field for the Vols this fall.  Per ESPN, the Vols are 108th in the country in returning production with 48% of their production from 2023 coming back this year.  That's not much for a team they project as a top ten team and playoff contender.  It certainly speaks to what they see from new starter Nico Iamaleava, transfer Chris Brazzell II, Lance Heard, and others who will have starring roles in 2024.  

If the Vols indeed manage to make the 36.9% chance of making the playoff pay off, then it will be a very memorable season indeed for the Vols on Rocky Top.