Mairon Santos vs. Francis Marshall Prediction, Pick, Odds for UFC 313

Mairon Santos vs. Francis Marshall will face off in the UFC 313 early prelims on Saturday, March 8.

Here’s my Santos vs. Marshall prediction.

Mairon Santos vs. Francis Marshall Odds, Prediction

Projection: Mairon Santos (68.6%)

Mairon Santos won the past season of The Ultimate Fighter (TUF) — defeating Kaan Ofli in the finals. He’s a powerful athlete and a high-potential prospect with a dynamic striking style, but — aside from Bryan Battle — recent TUF winners have struggled against UFC caliber competition, as better talents have typically earned their contract through contender series in recent years.

Francis Marshall isn’t as explosive of an athlete as Santos, but he’s only a year older, has faced better competition, should still be improving after moving his camp to American Top Team, and is likely to cover his pricetag unless he gets knocked out on the feet.

However, this fight is lined to reach a decision at around -160 (61.5%), which is higher than the divisional average (near 48%), which benefits the underdog in this style clash.

I show value both on Marshall’s moneyline (projected +218) and his odds to win by decision (projected +382, listed +470); I’ll use the latter on round-robin tickets.

Bets

• Francis Marshall (+245, 0.5u) at Fanduel; bet to +225