Arizona State head coach Kenny Dillingham during a practice inside the Verde Dickey Dome in Tempe on August 12, 2025. Patrick Breen/The Republic / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Metrics Believe Arizona State's 2025 Outlook Worsens

Originally posted on Arizona State Sun Devils on SI
By Kevin Hicks | Last updated Aug 15, 2025 6:00 AM ET

The Arizona State Sun Devils are heading into the 2025 season with new life after making a shocking turn to a Big 12 title a season ago.

Kenny Dillingham's team was predicted to finish last in the conference in their debut season as members and went on an incredible run over the final month of the season - a stretch that completely changed the perception of the program.

Not everyone is bought into the potential to repeat - or expand - on what was accomplished just mere months ago.

Bill Connelly of ESPN released the final updated SP+ rankings - a predictive metrics system that utilized a wide range of factors to rank every team in the FBS.

The metric dropped Arizona State from 22nd in the May release to 30th now - Connelly pointed to the SP+ system being lower on Big 12 teams in general due to an adjustment that was made to account for close victories.

More on the rationale below:

Patrick Breen/The Republic / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

"The Big 12's best in 2024. Arizona State (No. 11 in the polls, No. 30 in SP+), Iowa State (No. 21 in the polls, No. 31 in SP+) and BYU (No. 25 in the polls, No. 36 in SP+) went a combined 33-8 last season, 21-6 in conference play. But they were also a combined 15-5 in one-score games, and that's awfully hard to replicate. All three are projected near the top of the nutty Big 12 again this season, but so are a lot of other teams that didn't get the same bounces."

The train of thought when it comes to variation of results is a typically solid foundation logically - but the Arizona State product that was in front of everyone over the last six weeks of the season couldn't have been more different compared to the first several weeks of the season.

The Sun Devils dominated Kansas State and Iowa State along with handling Brigham Young for the most part - before coming within a play of beating Texas.

Arizona State should be receiving more respect from the metrics - especially being a roster that returns nearly 80% of production from the 11-win team.

Read ASU on SI's exclusive interview with Tyson here, and on where Sam Leavitt lands on the NIL merchandise sales leaderboard here.

This article first appeared on Arizona State Sun Devils on SI and was syndicated with permission.

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