The Michigan Wolverines earned a big win on the road against the Nebraska Cornhuskers to kick off Big 10 play this past weekend. With the win, the Wolverines moved to 3-1 on the season and jumped to No. 19 in the AP Top 25.
With the win, the Wolverines not only started Big 10 play with a 1-0 record, but they also took control of their own destiny. The Nebraska game was one of their toughest conference games of the season, and with it out of the way, Michigan has multiple paths to the College Football Playoff.
The first, and most obvious, way for the Wolverines to make the CFP this year is to win the Big 10 and earn the automatic bid that comes with the conference title. Obviously, this would be the most difficult and unlikely way to do it, but when you look at the Wolverines' schedule, they have a fighting chance in every single game the rest of the way.
Michigan will likely be favored in every game for the rest of the season outside of USC and Ohio State. If they can take care of business in the rest of their conference games and win one of USC and Ohio State, they'll be 8-1 in Big 10 play, which would give them a decent chance of making the Big 10 Championship.
However, the Big 10 did a good job with their scheduling. Most of the top team - Ohio State, Oregon, Penn State, Michigan, Indiana - only play one or two of the top schools in the conference, so there's a real possibility multiple teams are 9-0 or 8-1 by the end of the season, which would make the tie breakers interesting.
If Michigan can go 6-1 heading into their matchup with Ohio State, and then can knock off the Buckeyes for the fifth straight year, they'll have the head-to-head over the Buckeyes and should make the Big 10 Championship game and have a chance to earn the automatic bid. If they're undefeated in conference play heading into The Game and lose to Ohio State, then the tiebreakers might not go their way.
The easier route for Michigan would be to make it as an at-large, and I believe there are several ways in which they could do that.
The clearest and most obvious way is to finish 10-2 with losses to Oklahoma and USC. They'd have a win over Ohio State, who will likely be a top-five team by the time these two play, and would have an 8-1 Big 10 record. In this scenario, they'd likely make the Big 10 Championship, but if they were to miss out, they'd still have a good enough resume to make it as an at-large.
Another way is if the Wolverines go 10-2, make the Big 10 Championship and lose. Last year, SMU wasn't punished for losing in the ACC Championship and still made the CFP, so if Michigan were to go 10-2 with losses to Oklahoma and USC, and then lost to Oregon, Penn State or Ohio State in the Big 10 Championship, they should be a lock to earn a 10, 11 or 12-seed.
Where things get a bit more questionable is if the Wolverines go 10-2 with losses to Oklahoma and Ohio State. Obviously, they could still make the Big 10 Championship in this scenario, but if they were to miss out and had to rely on their resume to get them in, it would be tight. It'd be hard to turn down a 10-2 Big 10 team, but their biggest win would be at USC, and there's a chance they wouldn't have a single other ranked victory. They'd have to rely on other teams losing big games, but again, it would be hard to turn down a 10-2 Michigan team in favor of an 11-1 or 11-2 Group of Five school that didn't win their conference.
If Michigan can finish the season strong and lose just one more game, which is very possible when you look at their remaining schedule, they should have a very strong case to make the CFP. Winning the Big 10 would be the easiest path, but there are still quite a few ways they could make it as an at-large.
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