Penn State vs. Oregon score prediction for Big Ten Championship Game by expert football model

Here’s the latest prediction for the 2024 Big Ten Championship Game as Penn State and Oregon square off this weekend from an expert analytical football model that projects scores and picks winners.

Given both these teams appear to have locked in a place in the College Football Playoff, the winner of this game will be looking for a better seeding position in the final dozen.

For the Ducks, a win secures the No. 1 overall seed and first-round bye they’ve had ever since the selection committee has been ranking teams and projecting brackets.

Penn State should get a first-round bye with a win, but maybe not the No. 1 seed as the committee may prefer to give that to the SEC champion, while a loss should result in the Nittany Lions hosting a first-round game on campus.

What do the analytics predict for the matchup? For that, let’s turn to the SP+ prediction model to get a preview for how Oregon and Penn State compare in the Big Ten Championship Game.

Penn State vs. Oregon score prediction

As expected, the models are favoring the Ducks over the Nittany Lions to win the Big Ten championship, but by a very narrow margin.

SP+ predicts that Oregon will defeat Penn State by a projected score of 27 to 24 and will win the game by an expected margin of 3.2 points.

The model gives the Ducks a narrow 58 percent chance of outright victory over the Nittany Lions.

SP+ is a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football.”

How good is it this season? So far, the SP+ model is 384-352-9 against the spread with a 52.1 win percentage after going 35-35-1 (53%) last weekend.

Big Ten Championship odds, how to pick the game

Oregon is a 3.5 point favorite against Penn State, according to the updated lines posted to FanDuel Sportsbook for the Big Ten title game.

FanDuel set the total at 50.5 points for the matchup (Over -106, Under -114).

And it lists the moneyline odds for Oregon at -160 and for Penn State at +132 to win outright.

If you’re using this prediction to bet on the game, you should take ...

• Penn State +3.5
• Oregon to win -160
• Bet over 50.5 points

The big majority of bettors expect the Ducks will win the Big Ten championship against Penn State, according to the latest spread consensus picks for the game.

Oregon is getting 72 percent of bets to win the game and cover the narrow point spread.

The other 28 percent of wagers project that Penn State will either win the game in an upset or keep the final margin to a field goal or less in a loss.

Computer prediction

Other football analytical models take a different view, and are projecting a big upset in picking the Nittany Lions to take down the Ducks and win the Big Ten championship.

That includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times to pick winners.

Penn State emerged as the narrow favorite in the game, coming out on top in a majority 53.7 percent of the computer’s most recent simulations for the matchup.

That leaves Oregon as the presumptive winner in the remaining 46.3 percent of sims.

How does that translate into an expected margin of victory in the game? Expect a close one.

Penn State is projected to be just 1.3 points better than Oregon on the same field in both teams’ current composition, according to the model’s latest forecast.

More ... Big Ten Championship Game prediction: What the analytics say

College Football Playoff rankings for Championship Week

1. Oregon
2. Texas
3. Penn State
4. Notre Dame
5. Georgia
6. Ohio State
7. Tennessee
8. SMU
9. Indiana
10. Boise State
11. Alabama
12. Miami
13. Ole Miss
14. South Carolina
15. Arizona State
16. Iowa State
17. Clemson
18. BYU
19. Missouri
20. UNLV
21. Illinois
22. Syracuse
23. Colorado
24. Army
25. Memphis

What the College Football Playoff looks like today

Playoff seeding is not necessarily the same as the CFP top 25 rankings position, given some teams will be given higher seeds as conference champions

First-Round Byes

No. 1 Oregon
Projected Big Ten champion

No. 2 Texas
Projected SEC champion

No. 3 SMU
Projected ACC champion

No. 4 Boise State
Projected Mountain West champion

First Round Games

No. 12 Arizona State at
No. 5 Penn State
Winner plays No. 4 Boise State

No. 9 Tennessee at
No. 8 Ohio State
Winner plays No. 1 Oregon

No. 11 Alabama at
No. 6 Notre Dame
Winner plays No. 3 SMU

No. 10 Indiana at
No. 7 Georgia
Winner plays No. 2 Texas

First two out: Miami, Ole Miss

How to watch Penn State vs. Oregon

When: Sat., Dec. 7
Where: Indianapolis, Ind.

Time: 8 p.m. ET | 5 p.m. PT
TV: CBS network

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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