South Alabama vs Georgia State Prediction: Which Team Will Win A Sun Belt Game?

Originally posted on College Football News
By Pete Fiutak | Last updated Oct 23, 2025 5:00 AM ET

It's been a rough run for two programs that had plenty of promise coming into the season.

Georgia State was supposed to be okay under head coach Dell McGee, but there hasn't been any luck. Its only win was against an FCS team, it's 0-3 in Sun Belt games, and three of the last four games are on the road.

South Alabama isn't having any fun, either.

It opened up the season with a win over Morgan State from the FCS, and then dropped six straight. Unlike Georgia State, though, it's been in a slew of close games, but it can't buy a break. Two of its next three games are at home.

South Alabama Jaguars vs Georgia State Panthers Preview, Prediction, and Betting Lines

How To Watch South Alabama vs Georgia State

Thursday, October 23, 2025
Game Time: 7:30 PM ET
TV: ESPN+
Location: Center Park Stadium, Atlanta, GA
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Why South Alabama Will Win

Again, the Jaguars have been close. They need more of a tweak than an overhaul.

They were brutally close to beating Tulane, gave Auburn a game, and lost in overtime to Troy before dropping the Arkansas State game by one.

They're good on the ground, and they're strong at forcing the action by handing it off over and over again.

Georgia State has no pass rush and less of a run defense, giving up over 200 yards per game. It's more of a steady drip against this bunch than an avalanche, but keep feeding the ground game, and it'll burst.

So, like what South Alabama likes to do. But ...

Why Georgia State Will Win

There's a fundamental unclutch gene with this South Alabama team.

It has a penalty problem, but it doesn't turn the ball over lately. It runs well, and the passing game is accurate, but long, sustainable drives are difficult.

Georgia State doesn't force taeaways, but it also doesn't have a massive turnover issue. It's good at winging the ball all around the yard, and it'll press a South Alabama defense that doesn't bring any sort of a pass rush to be a bother.

South Alabama vs Georgia State Prediction, Betting Lines

Both teams are crazy due for something right to go their way.

Georgia State came up with a stunning defensive performance against James Madison, but wasn't even close defensively against anyone else from the FBS level.

Again, though, South Alabama is just one of those teams that does enough right, but doesn't win. Against Georgia State, though, it'll catch a break because no one seems to like getting flagged more than the Panthers.

They're getting destroyed by penalties in game after game. As long as South Alabama doesn't get hit with 13 flags like it did against Arkansas State, it'll be helped by too many Panther mistakes.

South Alabama 31, Georgia State 24
Line: South Alabama -6.5, o/u: 55.5
ATS Confidence out of 5: 2
Must See Rating: 2

Consensus Line from BetMGM, Caesars, DraftKings, and FanDuel. Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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This article first appeared on College Football News and was syndicated with permission.

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