SP+ Predicts BYU Football at Wyoming

Originally posted on BYU Cougars on SI
By Casey Lundquist | Last updated Sep 9, 2024 11:27 AM ET

Kalani Sitake and the BYU football program are 2-0 as they prepare for the non-conference finale at Wyoming. The Cowboys, who are led by first-year head coach Jay Sawvel, are 0-2 with losses to Arizona State and Idaho.

SP+, a predictive algorithm created by ESPN's Bill Connelly, predicted BYU at Wyoming. SP+ gives BYU an 84% chance to win with an expected final score of 34-17 in favor of the Cougars. SP+ is higher on BYU's chances against Wyoming than oddsmakers. As of Sunday afternoon, BYU was favored by just 8.5 points.

WEEK 3 SP+ PICKS

K-State 35, Zona 25
Bama 33, Wisconsin 15
LSU 31, SC 27
Mizzou 39, BC 16
Ducks 36, Beavers 23
UW 35, Wazzu 25
Irish 31, Boilers 20
UGA 38, Kentucky 26

Half the lines are within 3 points of SP+, so uh, good luck.https://t.co/w7ALlZmjBl pic.twitter.com/z21QqcKFwb
— Bill Connelly (@ESPN_BillC) September 9, 2024

The opening betting line for this game was, frankly, surprising. BYU has overperformed compared to Vegas expectations by a full 14 points in both games this season. In the season opener, BYU was a 14-point favorite over Southern Illinois. BYU won by 28. Against SMU, BYU was an 11-point underdog and the Cougars won by 3.

Wyoming, on the other hand, has underperformed. The Cowboys got blown out by Arizona State in their season opener 48-7. They returned home in week two and lost to FCS foe Idaho.

Despite all that, the oddsmakers expected this game to be within a touchdown. The line opened with BYU as a 6.5-point favorite before moving to 8.5 shortly after.

The SP+ prediction is more in line with the results we've seen through two weeks this season. It's also in line with the ESPN FPI prediction. FPI gives BYU an 86.4% chance to leave Laramie with a win.

BYU currently holds a nine-game winning streak over Wyoming dating back to 2004. The last time BYU lost to Wyoming, Gary Crowton was BYU's head coach in a 13-10 loss in Laramie.

This article first appeared on BYU Cougars on SI and was syndicated with permission.

More must-reads: