x
Tale of the Tape, Predictions: Louisville vs. Toledo
Louisville Cardinals defensive lineman Clev Lubin (50) celebrates his tackle of Clemson Tigers quarterback Cade Klubnik (2) in the first half at L&N Stadium Friday, Nov. 14, 2025. Matt Stone/Courier Journal / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Louisville (8-4, 4-4 ACC) is set to face Toledo (8-4, 6-2 MAC) in the Boca Raton Bowl on Tuesday, Dec. 23 at 2:00 p.m. EST at Flagler Credit Union Stadium in Boca Raton, Fla. Here's how the Cardinals stack up against the Rockets:

*Mobile users can scroll left and right on the tables below*

Rankings

Toledo Louisville
AP/USAT NR/NR RV/RV
CFP NR NR
SOS 128th 53rd
SOR 76th 36th
SP+ 38th 29th
FPI 52nd 29th
Sagarin 54th 27th
Kelley Ford 56th 31st
CFB Graphs 50th 38th

Offensive Statistics

Toledo Louisville
Total Offense 31st (421.8) 69th (388.8)
Yards Per Play 28th (6.30) 38th (5.99)
Scoring Offense 38th (31.6) 45th (30.2)
Passing Yards 51st (244.0) 65th (226.3)
Yards Per Completion 46th (12.25) 101st (10.77)
Rushing Yards 44th (177.8) 65th (162.6)
Yards Per Rush Attempt 29th (4.94) 23rd (5.07)
First Downs Gained 52nd (255) 86th (235)
3rd Down Con. % 55th (41.0) 94th (36.9)
4th Down Con. % 133rd (18.8) 69th (54.4)
Red Zone Con. % 119th (75.5) 13th (92.1)
Turnovers Lost 49th (14) 75th (16)
Interceptions Thrown 71st (10) 60th (9)
Fumbles Lost 16th (4) 77th (7)
Tackles For Loss Allowed 37th (4.75) 68th (5.33)
Sacks Allowed 13th (1.08) 75th (1.92)
Avg. Time of Possession 62nd (30:08) 54th (30:22)

Key: National Rank out of 136 FBS Teams (Value)

Defensive Statistics

Toledo Louisville
Total Defense 3rd (247.8) 16th (300.3)
Yards Allowed Per Play 1st (3.91) 15th (4.69)
Scoring Defense 4th (12.2) 35th (21.1)
Passing Yards Allowed 8th (158.4) 27th (190.6)
Rushing Yards Allowed 8th (89.3) 22nd (109.8)
First Downs Allowed 3rd (168) 15th (200)
3rd Down Def. % 5th (29.9) 20th (33.3)
4th Down Def. % 11th (37.0) 14th (37.5)
Red Zone Def. % 3rd (68.0) 67th (83.9)
Turnovers Gained 25th (20) 36th (19)
Interceptions Caught 23rd (13) 16th (14)
Fumbles Recovered 44th (7) 79th (5)
TFL Per Game 5th (7.4) 60th (5.6)
Sacks Per Game 13th (2.92) 50th (2.25)

Key: National Rank out of 136 FBS Teams (Value)

Special Teams Statistics

Toledo Louisville
Net Punting 108th (37.37) 113th (37.09)
Avg. Kickoff Return 42nd (22.29) 33rd (22.69)
Avg. Kickoff Return Def. 103rd (22.78) 33rd (18.12)
Avg. Punt Return 32nd (11.48) 5th (18.08)
Avg. Punt Return Def. 20th (4.22) 18th (4.11)
Field Goal Attempts 8-11 23-28
PAT 49-49 37-39

Key: National Rank out of 136 FBS Teams (Value)

Predictions:

- FPI Prediction: Per ESPN's Football Power Index, the Cardinals have a 67.6 percent chance to win against the Rockets. Louisville has an FPI rating of 9.9 (29th overall), whereas Toledo has an FPI rating of 4.2 (52nd overall)

- SP+ Prediction: Per Bill Connelly's SP+ model, the Cardinals have a 58.0 percent chance to take down the Rockets. Louisville has an SP+ rating of 11.7 (29th overall), whereas Toledo has an SP+ rating of 8.4 (38th overall).

- Sagarin Prediction: Per Jeff Sagarin's ratings, the Cardinals have an 70 percent chance to defeat the Rockets. Louisville has a Sagarin rating of 80.43 (27th overall), whereas Toledo has a Sagarin rating of 72.41 (54th overall)

- College Football Graphs Prediction: Per College Football Graph's EPA Margin metric, the Cardinals have a 57.6 percent chance to take down the Rockets. Louisville has an EPA Margin of 0.128 (38th overall), whereas Toledo has an EPA Margin rating of 0.071 (50th overall).

- Personal Prediction: Louisville 28, Toledo 21.

This article first appeared on Louisville Cardinals on SI and was syndicated with permission.

More must-reads:

Customize Your Newsletter

Yardbarker +

Get the latest news and rumors, customized to your favorite sports and teams. Emailed daily. Always free!