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Feb 5, 2025; Oklahoma City, Oklahoma, USA; Oklahoma City Thunder guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (2) and guard Isaiah Joe (11) high-five after a first-half play against the Phoenix Suns at Paycom Center. Mandatory Credit: Alonzo Adams-Imagn Images Alonzo Adams-Imagn Images

Using Four Factors to Explain 2024-25 OKC Thunder Dominance, Part One: Shooting

Originally posted on Oklahoma City Thunder on SI
By Ethan Baca | Last updated Sep 23, 2025 8:16 PM ET

The Oklahoma City Thunder was an extremely good basketball team last season. It won 68 regular-season games, tied for the fifth-most in NBA history. It posted a +12.9 average point differential, the highest in NBA history. It then earned more double-digit wins (10) than total losses (7) during the 2025 playoffs, which culminated in a championship.

Record and point differential separate good teams from title contenders, and mediocre teams from tank commanders. Both metrics went the 2024-25 Thunder's way, but they are not enough to understand its strengths and weaknesses.

In 2004, sports analytics pioneer Dean Oliver identified the "Four Factors of Basketball Success" that help teams win. These factors are effective field goal percentage, which measures points per field goal attempt; turnover percentage, or turnovers per 100 possessions; rebound percentage, the percentage of available rebounds grabbed; and free throw rate, which shows the ratio of free throw attempts to field goal attempts. All four factors must be applied to a team's offense and defense.

Oliver assigned values to the factors based on their perceived importance, with the weights representing an allocated proportion of 100%. Statistician Justin Jacobs found more precise values 13 years later using the least squares method, which determines the line of best fit for an existing data set. Jacobs' linear regression model with an intercept shows the estimated coefficients for the four factors based on 2016-17 team wins. He averaged each factor's team and opponent coefficients to assign weights.

Their exact weights differ, but the order remains identical: Two-way field-goal efficiency is more important than two-way turnovers, which are more important than two-way rebounding, which is more important than two-way free-throw generation.

Effective field goal percentage is a more accurate efficiency metric than traditional field goal percentage, because 3-point shots are worth more than 2-point shots. The formula: (field goals made + (0.5 * 3-pointers made)) / field goals attempted.

Team Performance, 2024-25 Regular Season

A 50% effective field goal percentage translates to 1.0 points per field goal attempt, and a 60% effective field goal percentage translates to 1.2 points per field goal attempt. All 30 NBA teams landed between these two barriers on both sides of the ball during the 2024-25 regular season.

Oklahoma City registered a 56.0% effective field goal percentage (No. 7 in NBA) and allowed a 51.3% effective field goal percentage (No. 1 in NBA) through 82 games. This was the second-best differential (+4.7%) behind the 64-win Cleveland Cavaliers (+5.0%), which scored as well as the Thunder defended.

The Boston Celtics tallied the third-most wins (61) and third-highest differential (+3.9%), further showing how two-way scoring matters greatly for team success.

The five worst differentials — New Orleans Pelicans (-4.5%), Charlotte Hornets (-4.4%), Philadelphia 76ers (-4.3%), Brooklyn Nets (-4.1%) and Washington Wizards (-3.6%) — all finished with bottom-six records.

Team Performance, 2025 Playoffs

The Thunder's field-goal defense remained stifling throughout the 2025 postseason, but its own scoring took a major step back.

The No. 1 overall seed recorded a 52.2% playoff effective field goal percentage (No. 9 in NBA) and allowed a 50.7% playoff effective field goal percentage (No. 2 in NBA). Oklahoma City's +1.5% differential, tying the Los Angeles Lakers, landed behind the high-octane Indiana Pacers (+4.7%) and unsurprising Celtics (+3.7%).

The Pacers led all 16 teams with a 56.2% effective field goal percentage and improved their regular-season differential by 3.1%, while the Thunder's fell by 3.2%.

The four worst differentials — Miami Heat (-10.1%), Orlando Magic (-7.5%), Memphis Grizzlies (-4.9%) and Milwaukee Bucks (-4.6%) — each lost in the first round.

OKC Player Performance, 2024-25 Regular Season

Last regular season, the league-average 2-point percentage was 54.7% and the league-average 3-point percentage was 36.0%. In other words, 2-pointers resulted in about 1.09 points per shot and 3-pointers resulted in about 1.08 points per shot.

Eleven of 14 returning Thunder players reached the average 2-point percentage. Nine of them shot above-average from beyond the arc.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, who averaged 32.7 points (No. 1 in NBA), experienced very slight 2-point regression but an impressive 3-point improvement from his 2023-24 campaign.

However, Jalen Williams dropped drastically in both categories, and Chet Holmgren's 2-point efficiency slipped after missing 39 straight games with a right hip fracture. Oklahoma City's No. 2 and No. 3 scoring options being less efficient led to a 1.3% lower effective field goal percentage than its previous regular season.

Both Thunder outliers functioned well in their scoring roles. Luguentz Dort, the only rotation player below 50% on twos, took 413 of his 593 shot attempts (69.6%) from downtown. Isaiah Hartenstein, the only rotation player below 30% on threes, took 461 of his 480 shot attempts (96.0%) from inside the arc.

Only Williams (53.7%) and Ousmane Dieng (52.4%) registered below-average effective field goal percentages among Oklahoma City's returners during the regular season.

OKC Player Performance, 2025 Playoffs

Throughout the 2025 playoffs, the league-average 2-point percentage was 52.6% and the league-average 3-point percentage was 35.4%. Triples took back the advantage, resulting in 1.06 points per shot compared to 2-pointers' 1.05 points per shot.

Eleven Thunder players, who are all returning this season, played at least 100 total minutes across the 23 playoff games. Six reached the average percentage on twos, and six reached the average percentage on threes.

Oklahoma City's three highest scorers were remarkably inefficient for a championship trio. Holmgren's 2-point percentage cleared the average by 2.3%, while Gilgeous-Alexander and Williams fell short despite the former excelling in the mid-range. All three recorded dreadful 3-point percentages, combining for 29.5% on 319 attempts.

Holmgren (51.3%), Gilgeous-Alexander (49.4%) and Williams (49.4%) each tallied below-average effective field goal percentages. They combined for 0.996 points per field goal attempt.

Ten of the Thunder's playoff rotation players posted above-average effective field goal percentages during the regular season, but just four did so in the postseason: Isaiah Joe (65.1%), Isaiah Hartenstein (61.9%), Alex Caruso (56.6%) and Jaylin Williams (55.7%).

Two-way effective field goal percentage has always been paramount for NBA success. Oklahoma City must maintain a commanding differential to repeat its dominant regular season and improve its playoff differential to maximize next June's championship odds.

This article first appeared on Oklahoma City Thunder on SI and was syndicated with permission.

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