What Does ESPN's FPI Say About Georgia Tech's Chances In The Matchup Against Gardner-Webb?

ESPN Analytics gives the Yellow Jackets a 98.5% chance to win at home and Gardner Webb just a 1.5% chance. The Yellow Jackets have continued to see a rise in the poll and have taken full advantage of their opportunities in the national spotlight. The AP Poll rewarded them by giving Georgia Tech a nice bump, and they also received some recognition in the ESPN FPI rankings this past weekend.

Coming into the season, Georgia Tech was ranked as the No. 39 team. The Yellow Jackets moved up nine spots to No. 30. After a Clemson loss to LSU and their win, Georgia Tech's chances to win the ACC also rose significantly. Coming into the game against Colorado, Georgia Tech had just a 5.4% chance to win the conference; now that number is 28.5%. The analytics also bumped up the Yellow Jackets' chances of making the playoffs in 2025. The number increased from 6.5% to 34.5% for Georgia Tech after Week 1.

It is nice to see the Yellow Jackets get the respect they’ve continued to go out and earn, and to see the FPI model reward Georgia Tech after a good performance on the road. The Yellow Jackets will play Gardner-Webb at home on Saturday before a big matchup in two weeks against the Clemson Tigers. One thing that is apparent with this Georgia Tech team is that their identity has remained the same in the Brent Key era, no matter who they put out there at the offensive line. It is going to be a physical smash-mouth football team that will impose its will on you and wear you out by the end of the game.

The rankings have changed slightly since then ranking the Yellow Jackets as the No.31 team just behind Indiana and Kansas State as the week has gone on. Their playoff chances also received a hit, going down from 34.5% to 12.8%. Nonetheless, Georgia Tech should handle business at home, which sets up for a pivotal early-season matchup against rival Clemson at home next weekend.

"ESPN uses its FPI (Football Power Index) as an advanced analytical model to help look at matchups and predict outcomes. In ESPN's own words: "FPI is a predictive rating system designed to measure team strength and project performance going forward. The ultimate goal of FPI is not to rank teams 1 through 128; rather, it is to correctly predict games and season outcomes. If Vegas ever published the power rankings it uses to set its lines, they would likely look quite a lot like FPI."