What Our Newly Created Advanced Analytics Say About HBCU Football In Week 6

HOW THE HBCU+ MODEL WORKS

Like Connelly’s SP+, the HBCU+ model blends strength of schedule with résumé scoring to forecast outcomes:

1. Strength of Schedule (SOS)

• Each HBCU team's schedule is rated using opponent power rankings (Sagarin, Massey, or custom ratings).
• A win probability model (Log5 or Elo) estimates how a “Top-5 FCS team” would perform versus that schedule.
• The result: A difficulty rating for every schedule.

2. Résumé Score

• Each team's scoring margin, capped at 50 points, is compared to the expected performance of a Top-5 FCS team.
• Losses include an extra 7-point deduction.
• Team résumé = (Sum of adjusted margins) ÷ Number of games.

SWAC Predictions – Week 6 (HBCU+ Model)

Eight SWAC football teams take the field this week. Here are the power ratings and projections:

SWAC Power Ratings – Week 6

1. Jackson State – 1800
2. Alabama State – 1780
3. Prairie View A&M – 1750
4. Alcorn State – 1720
5. Alabama A&M – 1700
6. Bethune-Cookman – 1680
7. Texas Southern – 1650
8. Arkansas-Pine Bluff – 1640

Takeaway: The HBCU+ model favors Alabama State, Prairie View A&M, Jackson State, and Texas Southern, with the Hornets and Tigers holding the strongest advantages.

MEAC Predictions – Week 6 (HBCU+ Model)

Four MEAC football teams are in action this week.

MEAC Power Ratings – Week 6

1. South Carolina State – 1750
2. Delaware State – 1740
3. Morgan State – 1720
4. Norfolk State – 1680

Takeaway: Morgan State and SC State are heavy favorites, while Norfolk State vs. Hampton looks like a toss-up. Delaware State will need discipline and a strong run game to upset Monmouth. Surprisingly, the formula believes Savannah State-SC State matchup in close at 65%, I believe the "Chennis Berry Bowl" should be well over 80% in favor of the Bulldogs.

CONCLUSION

The HBCU+ model isn’t perfect — it’s still evolving — but it gives us a data-driven way to preview HBCU football matchups each week. Fans of the SWAC and MEAC can now look forward to weekly breakdowns that go beyond gut feelings and highlight the numbers behind the rivalries. We may extend the model for the CIAA and SIAC as the season progresses.

What do you think about the HBCU+ model predictions? Drop your thoughts on social media and tag @HBCULegends and @KTMOZE with fellow HBCU football fans.

Also, a special thanks to Urban Edge Network for allowing us to use the HBCU+ brand for our first models. If yo have a name idea, send it to me at kmosley@hbcusi.com.