Who’s Favored? ESPN FPI Makes Call on Notre Dame vs. USC

Notre Dame cruised past NC State 36-7 Saturday to move to 4-2 at the season's halfway point. The Fighting Irish have been building since an 0-2 start that saw back-to-back heartbreaking losses at Miami and to Texas A&M.

Now Notre Dame gets ready to host old rival USC, for what could be the final time at Notre Dame Stadium. The old rivals don't have any games officially on the books beyond this season's, and the rivalry that dates back neatly 100 years is in jeopardy.

Notre Dame vs USC to Serve as Makeshift Playoff Game

This week's game will serve as essentially a playoff game for both Notre Dame and USC. With two losses, Notre Dame has been playing for its playoff lives since losing a heartbreaker to Texas A&M in the second game of the season. So far, so good on that front for the Irish, who have allowed just 34 points in their last 14 quarters of football.

For the one-loss Trojans, another loss might not eliminate them from College Football Playoff contention, but a remaining trip to Oregon in November also remains. If USC is to make its first CFP in Lincoln Riley's fourth year at the helm, a win at either Notre Dame or Oregon will be a must.

So who has the advantage as the old rivals get set to dance for perhaps the final time?

ESPN FPI Projects Notre Dame vs USC Outcome

Notre Dame and USC might not be in the AP Poll top 10, but both check into the top 10 in FPI this week. In its latest update Sunday morning (October 12), ESPN FPI ranks Notre Dame as the nation's fourth-best team while USC checks in at No. 9. The formula gives Notre Dame a 68.8% chance of victory over the Trojans on Saturday, as USC is given a 31.2% shot.

USC has not won a game at Notre Dame Stadium since 2011 when Lane Kiffin was coaching the Trojans, and Brian Kelly was in just his second season in South Bend.

Notre Dame's Updated CFP Odds According to ESPN FPI

The updated ESPN FPI numbers call for Notre Dame to finish the season 9.4-2.6, with the upcoming USC game being the most difficult left on the schedule. The formula gives Notre Dame a 24.3% chance of making the College Football Playoff, and a 48.7% chance of winning each of its six remaining games.

USC checks in with slightly better odds to make the CFP, getting a 29.7% chance, but just a 3.5% chance of winning out.

Could Notre Dame and USC Both Make the CFP?

Notre Dame clearly has to win out to make the College Football Playoff, while USC has a little bit more wiggle room. This would require both teams to manage their ways through what could be a slew of two-loss teams at the end of the year, but if Notre Dame wins Saturday, then USC wins out after that, there is certainly a world where both Notre Dame and USC could make the CFP with two losses.