Will North Carolina make the NCAA Tournament?

Originally posted on College Football News
By Pete Fiutak | Last updated Mar 6, 2025 3:29 AM ET

It’s North Carolina basketball.

The world doesn’t make sense if the Tar Heels aren’t incredible at college basketball. The world makes even less sense that the greatest coach to ever work at the hoops-mad school is in charge of the football team.

North Carolina was the preseason No. 9 team in the AP Poll, No. 10 in the Coaches Poll, and then it all went bye-bye after a 4-4 start that turned into a 6-5 start before the ACC season kicked in.

But again, it’s North Carolina. It’s supposed to be in the NCAA Tournament, and yet it’s barely in everyone’s First Four Out category. So can it really happen? Can the Tar Heels be left out?

Why North Carolina should make the NCAA Tournament?
Yeah, that 6-5 start to the season that sunk the Tar Heels before the fun really got going?

The losses were all away from Chapel Hill against preseason No. 1 Kansas, Auburn, Michigan State, Alabama, and Florida. Just about everyone else in America would be 6-5 - at best - against UNC’s early slate.

After the wheels totally came off in a blowout loss to Clemson - a very, very good Clemson team on the road - everything kicked in win six straight wins.

For whatever you think it's worth, at the moment, the Tar Heels are 38th in both the KenPom and NET rankings. It’s not crazy to think they belong.

However …

Why North Carolina shouldn’t make the NCAA Tournament?
Those losses early in the season are totally acceptable. The midseason 1-4 stretch losing to Stanford, Wake Forest, and Pitt weren’t.

It has one more Quad 1 win than you do - UCLA - and no one cares about the Quad 2s and 3s. It had a mediocre year in a mediocre basketball conference.

Will North Carolina make the NCAA Tournament?
No, but it really will might be the first team out after an inevitable magical run in some other conference tournament screws things up.

A win over Duke on Saturday wouldn’t take it off the bubble, but pull that off, win at least one game in the ACC Tournament - it’s in Charlotte, by the way - and that could be enough.

A loss to Duke wouldn’t be a death blow, but it would mean the Tar Heels must pull off a win over Clemson, Louisville, and/or Duke to be close.

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