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Worst Team Left in College Football Playoff is Obvious, per ESPN's FPI

Originally posted on Athlon Sports | By Andrew McCarty | Last updated Jan 5, 2025 10:59 AM ET

The semifinal round of the College Football Playoff sits just a few days away as the Notre Dame Fighting Irish square off against the Penn State Nittany Lions in the Orange Bowl followed by a bout between the Ohio State Buckeyes and Texas Longhorns in the Cotton Bowl.

Penn State kicked off the quarterfinal of the College Football Playoff with a win over the Boise State Broncos. Just a day later Texas escaped with a win over the Arizona State Sun Devils in a thrilling double-overtime showdown. Ohio State, meanwhile, showed why it's the betting favorite to win the national title following a blowout 41-21 victory over the previously undefeated Oregon Ducks.

Notre Dame wrapped up the quarterfinals with an impressive 23-10 win over the Georgia Bulldogs to set up a date with Penn State. Ahead of the semifinal round of the College Football Playoff, ESPN updated its Football Power Index, a computer model, which revealed a clear worst team.

Three of the four teams left in the playoff sit in the top three spots in the Football Power Index, but the fourth is all the way down in seventh place. Ohio State took the top spot followed by Texas and Notre Dame, with Penn State sitting at No. 7 behind Alabama, which lost an embarrassing game to Michigan last week, Ole Miss and Georgia.

The FPI gives Penn State the worst odds to win the title at just 15.6% while Notre Dame has the best odds at 29.1%. Ohio State is a close second at 28.4% while Texas has a 26.9% chance according to the ESPN computer model.

Notre Dame and Penn State will take the field on Thursday night at 7:30 p.m. ET while Ohio State and Texas follow 24 hours later on Friday night. Both games will be broadcast on ESPN.

This article first appeared on Athlon Sports and was syndicated with permission.

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