Would future ACC expansion help Virginia?

Conference realignment was one of the defining developments of the last decade (and more) for the NCAA. The Power Five became a Power Four, the Big 12 lost its two biggest brands to the SEC and each of the major conferences expanded. 

There was once talk of Clemson, Florida State, and other ACC mainstays considering a departure — which would destroy the conference’s prestige — but now, an ACC school moving up to the Big Ten or SEC is more difficult.

Media contracts, conference investment and other financial commitments make it very costly for a school to move conferences. Buyout exit fees and limited financial help from a new conference can be a brutal formula.

But while it is difficult for any major-conference exits — especially if the Protect College Sports Act officially passes — there is still an opportunity for mid-major schools to move up a level.

So — would a limited ACC expansion help Virginia? In short, it could. However, there are also some noteworthy issues to consider.

Potential additions: USF, Memphis, Tulane or UConn

Any new additions would likely have to take the deal that SMU, Cal, and Stanford did. That deal prevents them from earning their full ACC television revenue until 2034.

The four most valuable schools rumored to be exploring a change are South Florida, Memphis, Tulane and UConn.

Each school has pros — UConn (men’s and women’s) and Memphis has a history of high-quality basketball, Tulane and South Florida have had success in football, and the latter would complete a new rivalry trio with Miami and Florida State. Additionally, UConn could restart its former Big East rivalries with Syracuse, Boston College, Pitt, Notre Dame, Virginia Tech, and Miami.

Considering media visibility, UConn, Memphis, and Tulane would mark ACC entry into new states (Connecticut, Tennessee, and Louisiana, respectively). This could benefit Virginia’s brand visibility. Playing in faraway markets such as California and Texas has brought Virginia Athletics to new media markets, which could possibly help both recruitment and admissions. 

If UConn joined the ACC, it would instantly become the unquestioned best basketball conference in the country — boasting the Huskies, Duke, North Carolina, Virginia, Louisville, Syracuse, Miami and more. UConn’s basketball royalty could make expansion an enticing possibility for the Cavaliers. 

Because Virginia is close to the Washington, D.C. metropolitan area — one of the largest in the country — visiting fans could come in droves. 

However, there are a few cons that come with adding some mid-major schools. 

Potential cons 

The travel costs (financially, mentally, and physically) of making more trips away from old-fashioned ACC territory are notable. If the ACC expands, there could be more road games added to schedules across various sports. 

The opportunity costs of missing out on revenue from a home game can be especially enormous for football and men’s basketball. With the addition of multiple new schools (likely not all four, though) the ACC might consider eliminating the home-and-away portion of a team’s schedule. Virginia might not be able to play Duke or North Carolina multiple times on the hardwood in one season — a scenario which would involve losing out on major money.

There is also no definitive guarantee that a school like USF, Memphis, Tulane or UConn would be competitive in most sports. 

So far, Cal, SMU, and Stanford have at least managed to tread water — with Olympic sports excelling at the California schools and SMU football emerging as a College Football Playoff contender. But what if new additions fail to keep up with the rest of the ACC? That could damage the conference’s reputation, as well as limit national TV coverage. 

In many sports, the difficulty of a schedule is paramount. CFP rankings, RPI rankings and other metrics consider the strength of opponents. This is already an issue for Virginia football, when it is playing several losing teams in the ACC. That makes earning an at-large bid essentially impossible unless it goes undefeated or 11-1 in a regular season.

So what?

More likely than not, the ACC is done expanding for the foreseeable future. It already features 18 schools, and unless it mutually parts ways with a floundering athletic department like Boston College, vacancy seems improbable. 

However, if the Cavaliers got to further benefit from revenue sharing when new additions got little or no money, there could be great value for Virginia. 

There is no such thing as a conference set in stone, either. Maryland, after more than half a century in the ACC, now resides in the Big Ten. The Pac-12 is a husk of its former self, and Oregon now plays in the Big Ten. Student-athletes are paid for their services — a situation that once seemed impossible. 

The only true fact in college sports is that nothing lasts forever. Anything can happen, even another round of expansion. Virginia could stand to benefit.

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