WVU's ESPN FPI Ranking, Projected Win Total, Chances to Win Big 12 + More

Originally posted on West Virginia Mountaineers on SI
By Josh Wolfe | Last updated Jun 18, 2025 7:15 AM ET

What can we expect from Rich Rodriguez's return season at West Virginia? Can he return the Mountaineers to their former glory, or will it be a repeat of last season? The ESPN FPI has full projections for every FBS team. Today, we take a look at each for WVU.

ESPN FPI Ranking: 66

While I personally think WVU will exceed expectations this season, I agree with this preseason ranking. The Mountaineers will have 75 new faces on the roster this season, including an entirely new staff. Maybe they dominate, but maybe that huge of a turnover proves to be too much of a test.

Projected Record: 5.2-6.9

West Virginia will finally open their season vs. a non-Power Four opponent. They hypothetically should be able to start 2-0 with games against Robert Morris and Ohio. After that, though, they will play arch rival Pittsburgh and a very tough Big 12 schedule. They will play six of the top seven teams from the 2024 standings, including two road trips out west to BYU and Arizona State. With the easier start, I think they will find their way to seven wins at least.

Chances of Becoming Bowl Eligible: 42.3%

Since 2000, West Virginia has failed to become bowl-eligible four times. The computers are fair in their projection, but given the school's history, I would bet against it.

Chances of Winning Big 12: 0.6%

Winning the Big 12 is certainly not a realistic goal for year one of the new staff, but I do think 0.6% is slightly disrespectful. With how random the conference is yearly, I would never count out any school.

Chances of Making CFP: 0.8%

Again, this is not a realistic goal for WVU, but I think they should have a slightly higher chance. There are good odds that if you can make the conference title game, you're in, although that is not how it played out in 2024 for Iowa State.