2024 Scottish Open best bets, expert PGA picks

2024 Scottish Open Best Bets, Expert PGA Picks

Alexander Bjork Top 40 +240 (BetMGM – Ties Paid in Full)

By Spencer Aguiar

In yesterday's Scottish Open Outright Picks article, I discussed different bets to consider for Björk that might be safer than backing him at 600-1.

I don't want any of those answers to make people believe that this is some can't-miss option since there are issues in Björk's profile that pushed him down to this 600-1 range when everything opened, but I am going to spread 1.75 units on his outright (0.05), top-20 and top-40 placement bets (0.50 total) and a matchup against Billy Horschel (1.20).

If my model is correct, it could be a big week. If it isn't, we have marginal risk on his profile.

Thomas Detry Top 10 +700 (bet365)

By Tony Sartori

Thomas Detry spent years on the European Tour before joining the PGA Tour in 2023. Consequently, Detry enters this week with a ton of professional experience at The Renaissance Club.

He finished in a tie for second following a three-man playoff here in 2021 and followed that up with a tie for 10th in 2022 when this tournament became co-sanctioned alongside the PGA Tour. Detry is also in great form, posting three top-10 finishes over his past nine tournaments.

One of those finishes includes his tie for fourth at the PGA Championship at Valhalla against a tougher field than the one he will face in Scotland this week.

2024 Scottish Open Expert Picks, Fades

Favorites We’re Backing

• Aguiar: Ludvig Åberg +1700
• Gannon: Ludvig Åberg +1700
• Sartori: Hideki Matsuyama +3000

Mid-Tier Golfer to Back

• Aguiar: Matt Fitzpatrick +3500
• Gannon: Sahith Theegala +5000
• Sartori: Corey Conners +4500

Best Long Shot

• Aguiar: Tom Hoge 90-1
• Gannon: Erik Van Rooyen 100-1
• Sartori: Matthieu Pavon 110-1

Biggest Bust

• Aguiar: Corey Conners +6000
• Gannon: Min Woo Lee +3200
• Sartori: Viktor Hovland +2200

Contrarian Player To Target

• Aguiar: Sam Stevens 225-1
• Gannon: Max Homa 60-1
• Sartori: Max Homa 60-1

Your Betting Strategy for the Scottish Open

Aguiar: Tom Doak designed The Renaissance Club in 2008, and the golf course features tricky and undulating green complexes on most of these massively oversized locations. Doak implements this quirk quite frequently, but these slower Fescue putting greens are much more challenging because of the stagnant feel players will experience on their putts.

My model picked up on that trend by trying to pinpoint a three-step process for how a player combined Driving Distance, Putting on Slower Greens and Proximity from 150+ Yards, since just under 70% of approach shots will occur from that range.

Gannon: Both here at The Renaissance Club and on most links courses, I'm looking to back golfers who excel with both the driver and putter. Recent Scottish Open winners and contenders include Rory McIlroy, Robert MacIntyre, Thomas Detry, Min Woo Lee and Matt Fitzpatrick — who all generally make their hay around elite driving and putting.

Of course, other aspects of their golf games have to be working in a given week to win, but those two clubs are the baseline for their success.

This week, I also want to take a look at approach play more than normal at links designs. The Renaissance Club has some raised greens, which is not normal for the links in Scotland. This will require golfers to play the ball in the air more often than they would at most links courses.

Nonetheless, a complete bag and a well rounded player are needed to get the job done this weekend.

Sartori: The Renaissance Club in Scotland hosts once again, which it has done annually since 2019. This course is a par-70, 7.237-yard track designed by Tom Doak in 2008.

This links style venue rewards heavy hitters because the golf course has a lesser penalty for missed fairways. Last season, three of the top-five finishers ranked among the top seven in the field in both Driving Distance and Strokes Gained: Off the Tee, the only two statistics or metrics in which such a trend occurred.