Can Collin Morikawa Break Out & Challenge For The Open Title?

Collin Morikawa won The Open Championship in his first try in 2021, but the golf experts aren’t convinced the 28-year-old Cal grad is going to do it again this week at Royal Portrush in Northern Ireland.

Ranked No. 6 in the world but without a victory since October 2023, Morikawa is not viewed as the favorite by any of the four sources we surveyed, although all four have him in their top 10.

Here are tee times for the four ex-Golden Bears will play the 153rd renewal of this event, which runs Thursday through Sunday and offers a total purse of $17 million. (Keep in mind, Northern Ireland is nine hours ahead of West Coast time):

— Byeong Hun An: 11:30 p.m. PT on Wednesday

— Collin Morikawa: 2:09 a.m. PT on Thursday

— Sampson Zheng: 3:15 a.m. PT Thursday 

— Michael Kim: 5:04 a.m. PT Thursday 

Morikawa will play in a featured threesome alongside world No. 1 Scottie Scheffler and Shane Lowry, the 38-year-old native of Ireland, who has four top-10 finishes this season.

Here is how the experts rate the chances of Cal’s four entries: 

Keith Stewart, Golf Digest

Stewart’s top-5: 1. Scottie Scheffler; 2. Jon Rahm; 3. Xander Schauffele; 4. Rory McIlroy; 5. Viktor Hovland

7: Collin Morikawa

Morikawa’s Open record is a perfect microcosm for the last couple of years of his career. In four trips across the Atlantic, he has a win, a T-16 and two missed cuts. Oh, and he has posted 22 top-20s in the last two years! Morikawa hasn’t missed a cut in a major since 2023 (The Open) and has been on the leaderboard in six of his last seven major starts. This past weekend in Scotland gave him some time to get acquainted with veteran caddie Billy Foster. The goal is to put together a game plan for Royal Portrush and use that elite iron play to contend again, building on his major championship record this year. The problem? Hope is not a strategy, and unless Morikawa moves past the media nonsense, another top 20 miss might be in store.

40: Michael Kim

62: Byeong Hun An

126 and beyond: Sampson Zheng

Bentley Romine, NBC Sports

Romine’s top-5: 1. Scottie Scheffler; 2. Jon Rahm; 3. Viktor Hovland; 4. Sepp Straka; 5. Collin Morikawa

5. Collin Morikawa: Has gone MC, MC, T-16 since winning at St. George’s. Ball-striking wise, he’s one of the best – top 3 in proximity on Tour and recent strokes gained approach worldwide. Hopefully Week 2 with Billy Foster on the bag will be better than the first (MC at Scottish).

58. Michael Kim

78. Byeong Hun An

147. Sampson Zheng 

Paolo Uggetti, ESPN

Uggetti provided his rankings of the top 25 players in the field.

Uggetti’s top-5: 1. Scottie Scheffler; 2. Jon Rahm; 3. Rory McIlroy; 4. 4. Bryson DeChambeau; 5. Xander Schauffele

8. Collin Morikawa: There aren't too many people in the world who are hitting the ball as well as Morikawa has this season. His ballstriking is as elite as ever and yet, despite having four top-10s this season, he can't seem to get over the line and win his first tournament since the 2023 Zozo Championship.

Morikawa knows how to win this tournament -- he did it in 2021 at Royal St. George's -- and though his game has objectively improved since then, there seems to be something missing in his ability to put four quality rounds together at the sport's top tournaments. This year, he finished 14th at the Masters but has gone backward, finishing tied for 50th at the PGA Championship and tied for 23rd at the U.S. Open. Theoretically, at a course like Portrush, Morikawa's iron play and accuracy off the tee should put him in contention. How his putting fares (currently 99th on tour this season) will determine how far up the leaderboard he can go.

Brody Miller & Gabby Herzig, The Athletic

The Athletic ranks the top 30 entries at the Open.

Miller and Herzig's top-5: 1. Scottie Scheffler; 2. Rory McIlroy; 3. Jon Rahm; 4. Bryson DeChambeau; 5. Xander Schauffele

No. 7 Collin Morikawa

It’s safe to say this has been the strangest year of Morikawa’s career. As recently as April, you could argue he was playing better than anyone not named Rory McIlroy. But painfully close calls at Kapalua and Bay Hill cemented a new Sunday struggles storyline. He has had constant sassy back-and-forths with media members. He broke up with longtime caddie JJ Jakovac and has been shuffling multiple caddies since. And the golf? It’s dipped these last two months. But Morikawa is still an unbelievably accurate driver with elite iron play. Those traits go well with links golf at an event he won in 2021. Morikawa can struggle when conditions get unpredictable. Let’s see if he can change the storyline of his year.