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Golf best bets: Does Rory McIlroy's approach to The Masters make him a good bet after all?
Rory McIlroy hits balls on the driving range during a practice round for the Masters golf tournament at Augusta National Golf Club. Adam Cairns-USA TODAY Network

Golf best bets: Does Rory McIlroy's approach to The Masters make him a good bet after all?

There's a lot of hullabaloo surrounding Rory McIlroy ahead of The Masters, and his noticeably short press conference on Tuesday might not have changed betting experts' minds about fading him this weekend at Augusta National. But should you be thinking differently?

Despite the Irishman's early-season woes, DraftKings still lists him at 10-1 odds to win his first green jacket — behind only world No. 1 Scottie Scheffler at 4-1 — and reasonably priced at +230 to finish in the top five at this year's Masters and +110 to finish in the top 10. However, many betting experts  are shying away from backing him at the 88th Masters. His Tuesday presser, which was uncharacteristically short by McIlroy standards, has left some outlets deeming him mentally frazzled and not worth his short odds.


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But was there a message in that limited media availability hinting that McIlroy is in better shape than betting experts are giving him credit for? It looks like other golf fans are already placing their wagers on McIlroy anyway.

Here are some things to consider before placing your bets.

In McIlroy's brief press conference, he did reveal his effort to not make any extra special preparations ahead of the first major of the season, which is different from what he has done in previous seasons.

"I play 25 weeks a year, and there’s no point in doing anything different this week compared to other weeks," he told the media, via NBC Sports. "I feel like I’ve already got most of my prep work done. So it’s just about going out there and being relaxed and being in the right frame of mind. And the more I can do that, the more I’ll be able to execute on the golf course."

If you've watched McIlroy in past Masters, his efforts to make special tweaks ahead of the event haven't really paid off. (More on that a little later.) So his commitment to sticking with what works makes him a more appealing bet.

McIlroy is also coming off his first top-10 finish of the season, so sticking with what earned him a third-place finish at the Valero Texas Open last weekend is a plus. He entered the event in the Lone Star State ranked 119th on the Tour in Strokes Gained: Approach To Tee and 94th in SG: Putting — not a good sign when putting is pivotal at Augusta National. 

However, as the PGA Tour site summarized, McIlroy's third-place finish came courtesy of a final-round 66 with six birdies and no bogeys to finish 11-under. He capped off the event at TPC San Antonio — which he normally skips ahead of the Masters — inside the top five in SG: Tee To Green and Approach To Green. He was also second in Scrambling and converted 20 of 24 opportunities. If McIlroy is sticking to what made him successful in Texas, he could be a better bet at The Masters than experts are suggesting.

As previously mentioned, McIlroy has tried to make small adjustments ahead of the Masters in previous years and it hasn't paid off. While he has three top-five finishes at Augusta since 2018 and was the runner-up in 2022, he also missed the cut in 2021 and 2023. 

Those misses could also contribute to experts not being high on him heading into the first major of the year. With a different approach to this year's event, however, McIlroy could be bucking that trend.

Rory McIlroy has taken a lot of flak ahead of the 2024 Masters, but there is reason to believe he is a good bet to get a good shot at the title. Given his new approach to competing at Augusta National, his odds of winning or finishing high on the leaderboard seem even more reasonable. 

You don't have to listen to everything the betting experts say. Consider McIlroy when you place your Masters bets.

The 88th Masters tees off on April 11.

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