Golf best bets: Long shots to target at the Valero Texas Open

We cashed Joseph Bramlett to finish top 40 (+165) at the Texas Children's Houston Open last week, but it wasn't the lucrative long-shot week we've grown accustomed to this season. Let's bounce back with a pair of big-money long shots for this week's Valero Texas Open. 

Andrew Novak (+12000 FanDuel)

Novak has become a regular guest star on our long shot previews, and we see no reason to go away from him this week. The American has four top-20 finishes (three top-10s) in his last six starts, making him a great target for finishing position bets.

Novak's statistical profile matches up well with TPC San Antonio. He ranks 10th on the PGA Tour this season in approaches from 200-plus yards, 16th in strokes gained around the green and 40th in total driving. The 29-year-old is coming off his best week of the season with the driver, which will be an important club this week on a long golf course. His putting has been inconsistent all season, but Novak led the field in strokes gained from putting at TPC San Antonio last year en route to a T9 finish. That was the best putting week of his career in terms of strokes gained. 

If the driver stays hot and the putting cooperates, Novak could contend for a win this week. 

Top-20 finish: +360
Top-40 finish: +200

Sam Stevens (+22000 FanDuel)

If you like to bet golf based on recent form alone, Stevens won't be the target for you. The 27-year-old has just two top-25 finishes and three missed cuts in 10 starts this season, but we like his chances this week based on his finish at TPC San Antonio last season.

Stevens finished runner-up to Corey Conners at the 2023 Valero Texas Open, the best finish of his PGA Tour career. He ranked second in the field that week in strokes gained on approach and fourth in strokes gained from putting. The Fort Worth native is most comfortable on Texas soil, and it's a huge advantage to have familiarity with these strong winds and firm, dry conditions. 

Stevens is oddly a better iron player the farther he is from the green, and long irons are pivotal at TPC San Antonio. 

Top-20 finish: +550
Top-40 finish: +310