Adam Hadwin. Matt Krohn-USA TODAY Sports

Golf best bets: Picks for the Shriners Children's Open

By Jack Dougherty | Last updated Oct 11, 2023 2:30 PM ET

The PGA Tour rolls on to TPC Summerlin in Las Vegas for the Shriners Children's Open, and we're finally starting to see some more talented fields in the fall swing. World No. 16 and reigning champion Tom Kim is the favorite to repeat at +1100 odds, followed by up-and-coming star Ludvig Aberg (+1200), Si Woo Kim (+2200) and Cam Davis (+2500).

The tournament also features LPGA Tour star Lexi Thompson, who will become just the seventh woman ever to play in a PGA Tour event. She’s +500 to make the cut.

Let's dig through the field this week and try to find some winning bets in the bunch.

Adam Hadwin to win (+4000 BetMGM)

Adam Hadwin's lone PGA Tour came all the way back in 2017 at the Valspar Championship, but if he's going to pick up another trophy in his career, there's a good chance it comes on this golf course.

In seven starts at TPC Summerlin, Hadwin has four top-10 finishes and just one missed cut. The Canadian has gained 15.24 true strokes on the green and 13.64 true strokes on approach at TPC Summerlin over his last four starts here. As an expert at scoring on this golf course, Hadwin should be lower than 40/1 to win this week.

Matt Nesmith top-30 finish (+140 DraftKings)

TPC Summerlin has proven to be a golf course that can support repeated success. As a shorter course that rewards accuracy off the tee over length, we've seen shorter hitters play well here time and time again.

Almost no one has more sustained success at TPC Summerlin than Matthew Nesmith. In four starts at the Shriners Children's Open, Nesmith has finished T2, T14, T8 and T18, and he's gained strokes putting all four years. The 30-year-old clearly knows how to play this golf course, and these are his favorite greens (at least statistically) on the PGA Tour. Coming off a T25 finish at last week's Sanderson Farms Championship, Nesmith should be able to keep the momentum rolling at TPC Summerlin.

Tom Kim/Ludvig Aberg/Adam Schenk/Aaron Rai make-the-cut parlay (+158 FanDuel)

This is a first for me on golf best bets, but I see a ton of value in this make-the-cut parlay.

Kim won this event last year, and TPC Summerlin perfectly fits his game as a short, positional player. I had my doubts that Aberg would play well at last week's Sanderson Farms Championship after an emotional Ryder Cup, but he proved me wrong with a second-place finish in a playoff. He might be the most talented player in this field.

Adam Schenk has four top-10 finishes in his last seven starts, and he's finished T27 or better in four straight trips to TPC Summerlin. Aaron Rai, like Kim, fits this course perfectly as a precise ball-striker and strong birdie-maker on shorter tracks.

Check out Yardbarker's betting hub for odds, picks, predictions and analysis — and start winning TODAY!

Jack Dougherty

Jack Dougherty has been writing professionally since 2015, contributing to publications such as GoPSUSports. com, Centre Daily Times, Associated Press, and Sportscasting. com

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