Del Mar Late Pick 5 Strategy for Friday, July 18

This Friday marks the start of another summer meet “where the turf meets the surf” at the iconic Del Mar Thoroughbred Club. The opening day card features the Oceanside Stakes, along with several other competitive races. Here’s how I’ll be playing the Late Pick 5 sequence:

Race 6: Allowance Optional Claimer, 1 1/16 Miles, Turf

The first leg is an optional claimer for non-winners of two. There are some interesting runners in here, but my top pick is #4 Genius Jimmy. He comes in off a very close second-place finish in an allowance optional claimer at Santa Anita in June, where he battled down the lane with eventual winner Final Boss. Prior to that, he won an N2X allowance by a head. He’s posted 90+ Beyers in both of those efforts, has the highest early speed rating in the field, and retains Kazushi Kimura in the irons. I expect him to go to the front and try to wire the field.

Next up is #2 Sarwar for trainer Leonard Powell. He finished fourth in that same Santa Anita race behind Genius Jimmy and should get a good stalking trip here. He’s 3-for-4 over the Del Mar turf and could get first run on the closers at a juicy morning line price of 10-1.

Last on in this one is the #5 Dandy Man Shines for Jeff Mullins and Hector Berrios. He returns from a nearly three-month layoff, having last run in a N2X allowance optional claimer on April 25. Mullins wins at a solid 19% clip with runners off 60+ day layoffs, and this one has a nice closing kick. He’s 2-for-2 over the Del Mar turf, and getting Berrios aboard in a turf route certainly doesn’t hurt.

Top Choice: #4 Genius Jimmy
Use: #2 Sarwar, #5 Dandy Man Shines

Race 7: Maiden Special Weight, 5 Furlongs, Dirt

My top pick here is #8 Cara Rose. This 2-year-old Caravaggio filly makes her third start after finishing second on debut and third last time out. I really liked her debut, where she was brushed at the start, was over seven lengths back at the top of the stretch, went four wide, and still got up for second by only a length. She gets a rider upgrade from Antongeorgi to Fresu and returns to dirt after trying turf against open company last time. Dropping back into a Cal-bred field, if she runs back to her debut, she’s the one to beat.

Second choice is #5 Druliner. She had a tough trip on debut a few weeks ago at Santa Anita, breaking slowly and spotting the field several lengths. I’m encouraged by Craig Lewis’s 28% strike rate with second-time starters. If she breaks cleaner and gets involved early, she could improve drastically.

Last pick in this one will be the #4 Mustang Knicky. This unraced Knicks Go filly comes in off some sharp works. I’m a bit biased here—Knicks Go was one of my favorite horses to watch—but if she can flash that natural early speed like her Breeders' Cup-winning father, this 5-furlong dash could be the perfect debut spot.

Top Choice: #8 Cara Rose
Use: #5 Druliner, #4 Mustang Knicky

Race 8: Oceanside Stakes (1 Mile, Turf)

This restricted stakes for 3-year-olds goes a mile on turf, and the horse to beat is clearly #3 Iron Man Cal. He’s my single in the sequence. The son of Collected exits a solid sixth-place finish in the G1 American Turf on Derby Day and makes his second start off a six-month layoff. With potential pace from recent sprinters #4 Lyle the Crocodile and #6 Kale’s Angel, Iron Man Cal should get a perfect ground-saving trip and roll late. The class relief and second start off the bench make this an ideal spot.

Top Choice: #3 Iron Man Cal

Race 9: Allowance Optional Claimer, 6 Furlongs, Dirt

My top pick is #8 Letmein for trainer Mark Glatt and jockey Kazushi Kimura. He was second last out under the same conditions and possesses enough tactical speed to sit just off the leaders. This race looks pace-heavy on paper, and I’m hoping he can stalk and pounce. Glatt and Kimura are winning at 21% with a $1.93 ROI and $9.13 average payout.

Next is #4 The G M, who finished second last out in a Cal-bred N1X. He returns to similar conditions and appears to be rounding into form in his second start off a long layoff. Like Letmein, he should be able to sit just off the pace and make his move late.

Top Choice: #8 Letmein
Use: #4 The G M

Race 10: Maiden Special Weight, 1 Mile, Turf

The sequence closes with a mile turf MSW for fillies. Like in Race 6, I’m siding with speed. My top pick is #6 Lady Chic, a Tapit filly who looks like the clear speed on paper. She stretches out from a 6 furlong sprint last out and should go right to the front. If Rispoli can control the tempo and carve out easy fractions, she may prove tough to catch.

Next is #2 Nafisa, the 5-2 morning-line favorite. The concern is she’s winless in 9 starts, finishing second five times. That said, she has tactical speed and could sit right off Lady Chic, then go by late. She may finally break her maiden in this one.

Third is #4 Church Lady, who’ll look to close from the back. The D’Amato-Fresu combo is always dangerous on turf, and if the pace heats up, she could be flying late.

Last on the ticket is #5 For Arrogate for Jonathan Thomas and Vince Cheminaud. She boasts the highest late pace rating (107) and is another who will need a hot pace to close into. She’ll need a career-best effort, but at 15-1, she’s an intriguing price and worth including on the ticket.

Top Choice: #6 Lady Chic
Use: #2 Nafisa, #4 Church Lady, #5 For Arrogate

The Ticket

$0.50 Late Pick 5 (Races 6–10):
2,4,5 / 4,5,8 / 3 / 4,8 / 2,4,5,6 = $36

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