Equibase Analysis: Dornach-Sierra Leone Highlights Blue Grass

Another horse entering off a strong effort is Encino, who won the John Battaglia Memorial Stakes five weeks ago. Epic Ride finished second in that race and is another who may have a say in the outcome. Just a Touch finished second in the G3 Gotham Stakes last month and hopes to add the necessary points to join the field in the starting gate at Churchill Downs next month with a top effort. Similarly, Good Money will be trying to improve off his fourth-place finish in the G3 Tampa Bay Derby on March 9. Seize the Grey will be attempting to improve off a third-place finish in the G3 Jeff Ruby Steaks two weeks ago. If he does he may give Hall of Fame trainer D. Wayne Lukas another Derby entrant to go along with Just Steel, who finished second in the G1 Arkansas Derby last weekend. Lat Long, who finished third in the G3 Lecomte Stakes when last seen in January, is another colt needing first- or second-place points to run in the Derby. Be You and Top Conor both take a significant jump in class after earning their first career wins in their most recent starts. Mugatu has won once in 11 career starts and was most recently eighth in the Rushaway Stakes two weeks ago.

Analysis and top contenders:

There is little doubt this year’s Blue Grass Stakes goes through Dornoch and Sierra Leone, both who have demonstrated exceptional talent in eight combined career starts to date, finishing first or second in all of them. Sierra Leone will get top billing based on the authoritative way he won the Risen Star in his most recent start, and because the effort came at the same 1 1/8-mile distance of the Blue Grass.

In the Risen Star, Sierra Leone lagged back in ninth in the early stages in a field of 12 and was still seventh with a quarter mile to run. Showing an incredible burst of sustained speed when asked to run by jockey Tyler Gaffalione, Sierra Leone was fourth after another 220 yards had been run, then was first after another 100 yards or so. That effort earned the colt a 98 Equibase Speed Figure which is highly likely to be improved upon in his second race after coming back from 2 ½ months off. Prior to the Risen Star, Sierra Leone rallied from 10th to the lead in the blink of an eye, or so it seemed, in the Remsen Stakes in December only to beaten in the final yards by Dornoch, who had run three times prior to that compared to once for Sierra Leone. Not only did his inexperience cost him the win that day, it might have been the case Sierra Leone suffered from a lack of focus after making the lead. This was remedied by the addition of blinkers for the Risen Star and is the reason I believe Dornoch will not finish in front of Sierra Leone in the Blue Grass, as well as in the Kentucky Derby next month.

Dornoch is a very talented horse whose sire Good Magic won the 2018 Blue Grass Stakes before a runner-up finish in the Kentucky Derby. Additionally, although it has been bandied about quite a bit this Derby season, some of you may not know Dornoch is also a full brother to 2023 Derby winner Mage, who was also sired by Good Magic out of the dam Puca. Dornoch has certainly lived up to the expectation of his brother, as he finished second in his first two races and has won all three since then including the Remsen Stakes in December and the Fountain of Youth in March following three months away from the races. Since his win in the Remsen came at the distance of the Blue Grass, the fact the Fountain of Youth victory came at a shorter distance isn’t a concern, particularly noting Dornoch earned a career-best 102 figure in the Fountain of Youth which can be expected to be improved upon in his second start as a 3-year-old. Since the race, Dornoch put in a very strong half-mile drill which was the best of 35 at the distance on the day, setting the stage for what could be an epic battle with Sierra Leone in the race.

Honorable mention goes to two other colts in Encino and Just a Touch. Encino won the John Battaglia Stakes on March 2 with a 100 figure that matches up with the top two contenders. That race, as well as his other two to date, were all run on the all-weather surface at Turfway Park. Nevertheless, as a son of Nyquist who won the Kentucky Derby in 2016, Encino could make the transition to dirt and punch his ticket to Louisville next month. Just a Touch is a bit behind the others in terms of experience, having run just twice. However, he did show a lot of talent in the Gotham Stakes on March 2 when finishing second with a 95 figure, so with improvement expected in his third lifetime start he could have something to say in this race.

The rest of the field, with their best Equibase Speed Figures, is Be You (94), Epic Ride (98), Good Money (82), Lat Long (88), Mugatu (92), Seize the Grey (93) and Top Conor (79).

Win Contenders:
Sierra Leone
Dornoch

Other contenders:
Encino
Just a Touch

$1 Million Toyota Blue Grass Stakes – Grade 1
Keeneland, Saturday, April 6
Race 10 – Post Time 5:52 PM E.T.
3-Year-Olds, 1 1/8 Miles