How to wager and find value in the Travers

With all the attention on the short field topped by Kentucky Derby and Belmont Stakes winner Sovereignty, Saturday’s Grade 1, $1 million Travers has left bettors with a sour taste in their mouth. Many trainers and owners have decided not to challenge Sovereignty, who’s coming off a victory in the Grade 2 Jim Dandy, and send their horses to other races like the Grade 1 Pennsylvania Derby. Now, the question remains if there’s any value to be had in the Travers or if it’s simply un-betable.

Just four other rivals will line up against Sovereignty, none with anywhere close to the top 3-year-old’s credentials. In fact, the four other horses have combined for just four non-maiden victories. Even if bettors think Sovereignty is a lock, there still may be some ways to add value. Here are the horses and some different betting options to try to find some value:

Straight Exacta

This option concedes Sovereignty as the winner and tries to find some value in the second-place finisher. Using Magnitude in second won’t yield a noteworthy payout but he’s probably the most likely second-place finish. Bracket Buster and McAfee are longshots for a reason but Strategic Focus could run a big race despite his last-out loss in the Curlin. Strategic Focus is sure to be the third betting choice and has enough tactical speed to be right off the pace and in front of Sovereignty. Exacta payouts have been weird at Saratoga this meet but this one should pay out between $15 and $20 for a $2 bet.

Exacta: #4 Sovereignty / #3 Strategic Focus

Trifecta

There’s a couple ways to play this but they all center around Sovereignty on top. Again, Magnitude running second won’t make it worth it and him missing the board is the key here. For this wager to work, Magnitude needs to burn out after setting fast fractions, most likely pressed by Bracket Buster. That would also have a high chance of Bracket Buster missing the board. Boxing Strategic Focus, Bracket Buster, and McAfee allows some room for error. Placing Magnitude in the third spot also hedges a little. Payouts are hard to calculate for trifectas but either two longshots running second helps. At a 50-cent minimum, this wager only costs $4.50 so it can be played a few times and won’t break the bank.

Trifecta: #4 Sovereignty / #2 Bracket Buster, #3 Strategic Focus, #5 McAfee / #1 Magnitude, 2,3,5

The Upset

For those hoping that Saratoga continues as the “Graveyard of Favorites” and claims Sovereignty as another victim, the win bet is the way to go. Magnitude is the quickest early horse in the race but he likely won’t be alone. Bracket Buster will press him and it’s doubtful those two, and McAfee, want to go 1 1/4 miles. Even so, Magnitude’s 2-1 morning-line odds don’t look very appetizing. Bracket Buster and McAfee are once again, longshots for a reason. That leaves Strategic Focus once again. He should get a very similar stalking trip that Nitrogen got in her Alabama win last week. His third in the Curlin Stakes last out really wasn’t as bad as it seems. It was an oddly run race where they went slow early, then quickened and jockey Flavien Prat was forced to move too early. Trainer Chad Brown also adds blinkers, a move where he hits at 30 percent. At 6-1 on the morning line, Strategic Focus is a solid win candidate and will likely be close to 8-1.

Win: #3 Strategic Focus

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