Picks & Plays: Stay away from Derby winner Mystik Dan in turf debut in Arlington Million

Since 2022 the Arlington Million just hasn’t quite felt like the Arlington Million. That’s partially because it’s no longer held at the now-shuttered Arlington Park. Instead, it’s being run Saturday at Colonial Downs in New Kent, Va., more than 800 miles away from Chicago. The entries for the Grade 1 race at 1 1/4 miles also drew a peculiar entrant. Mystik Dan, the 2024 Kentucky Derby winner, will make his turf debut Saturday as part of an intriguing field of eight.

While his Derby alumni Sierra Leone and Fierceness are knocking heads in the older dirt division, Mystik Dan has fallen a cut below that group - though he did win the Grade 3 Blame two starts back - prompting trainer Kenny McPeek to try his Derby winner on the turf.

Mystik Dan’s sire, Goldencents, did produce a couple of stakes winners on turf, but his dam produced one other foal, who didn’t run on the turf. McPeek worked Mystik Dan on Saratoga’s training turf on Aug. 1, going five furlongs in 1:02, the fifth-fastest of 10 works on the day. 

Mystik Dan, with regular rider Brian Hernandez Jr. aboard, will break from the rail, forcing Hernandez to go somewhat close to the lead. That may be his downfall, as there’s plenty of other speed in the race. 

Integration is the clear choice based on his last-out second in the Grade 1 Manhattan. Deterministic won that race and came back to win the Grade 1 Fourstardave at Saratoga last weekend. 

Integration is still searching for his first Grade 1 win but did run second in this race last year, and has placed in several other Grade 1 races. In his second career start, Integration won the Grade 3 Virginia Derby at Colonial. Furthermore, he’s won three races at Colonial in four starts. 

John Velazquez will ride as the morning-line 8-5 favorite from post 8 for trainer Shug McGaughey. The outside post will allow Velazquez to get good position and will likely allow Integration to land his first victory since November of last year. 

McCaughey’s other entrant, Fort Washington, is worth a look as well, especially if the pace gets hot. Fort Washington won back-to-back Grade 3 races in March and May but like his stablemate, has yet to land a Grade 1. The deep closer should appreciate the added distance under Junior Alvarado. 

Cairo, shipping in from Europe, is another to stay away from. While Cairo has been knocking heads with some tough customers in Europe, he still doesn’t fit in this race. Last out, Cairo was third in the Group 1 Queen Anne at Royal Ascot. Closing from last, Cairo was narrowly up for third in a blanket finish at odds of 100-1. While he does have some decent form, he’s been big prices for most of his career and if he’s near the 7-2 morning line, he’s hard to take at a short price.

The Pick
#8 Integration

While not the best value, Integration looks hard to deny. His price may float up with the presence of Mystik Dan but still, he’s the most likely winner. Stay away from Mystik Dan, at least let him prove he actually wants the turf.

The Play
Exacta box: #6 Fort Washington, #8 Integration

Secretariat Stakes

In a somewhat wide-open field for the Grade 2 Secretariat Stakes at a mile on turf for 3-year-olds, Maui Strong looks like the lone speed. At 7-2 on the morning line, the Dale Romans trainee has just a maiden win on his record but seems to be finding himself as a front runner. He’ll be forced to the front without much speed in a field that lacks a standout. 

Giocoso has been knocking at the door all spring and the cutback in distance should suit him. Without much pace to close into, getting up for a piece may be his best. Same goes for End of Romance, though he’s stepping up in class.

Dream On is the most logical choice but his best runs have come over softer turf. Unless rain softens the turf, he may be susceptible, and the outside draw probably doesn’t help.

The Pick
#2 Maui Strong

If he can break away running and get the lead, this looks like the spot for his breakthrough win.

The Play
Exacta: #2 Maui Strong over #1 Giocoso and #3 End of Romance 

Beverly D. Stakes

Everyone is pretty logical in this Grade 2 for older fillies and mares going 1 3/16 miles on turf. Be Your Best is confirmed for this race and if she can run back to her best races, she probably wins. However, Beach Bomb is more appealing off a bit of a freshening. She’s been forward in her last couple races but with other speed in this race, she’ll likely settle in behind it.

The Pick 
#3 Beach Bomb

Rarely misses the board and should work out a perfect stalking trip.

The Play 
Win: #3 Beach Bomb

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