The Derby Bubble Presented By Kentucky-Breds: A New Name Tops The List After Wild Prep Weekend

Pedigree: City of Light - Nonna Bella (by Stay Thirsty)
Owner: Repole Stable
Trainer: Todd Pletcher
Breeder: Repole Stable (KY)
Kentucky Derby points: 136

I understand handicappers being skeptical after Fierceness’s romp in the G1 Florida Derby. He had a picture-perfect trip with no adversity, and he didn’t show us anything we didn’t already know. 

Having said that…if Fierceness runs his “A race,” who beats him? Probably no 3-year-old in training, and that’s why I can’t be contrarian and put him lower than the top spot on this list. That doesn’t necessarily mean I’m betting him on the first Saturday in May (a borderline-reckless statement to make about ANY horse in early April), but he’s simply shown too much talent to be anywhere else on this list.

Kentucky-Bred Pedigree: Fierceness is a homebred for Repole Stable, and he is the first foal to race out of the winning Stay Thirsty mare Nonna Bella. The dam is a half-sister to Grade 1 winner Outwork, and Grade 2 winner Cairo Prince can also be found in the extended family.

#2: Sierra Leone

Pedigree: Gun Runner - Heavenly Love (by Malibu Moon)
Owners: Magnier, Tabor, Smith, Westerberg, Rocket Ship Racing, and Brant
Trainer: Chad Brown
Breeder: Debby L. Oxley (KY)
Kentucky Derby points: 55

Chad Brown might be the best trainer that has yet to win the roses, and 2024 could be the year he gets off the duck. Sierra Leone launched to the upper echelon of this list with a win in the G2 Risen Star. That race aged very well when the 2-3-4 finishers behind Sierra Leone all finished in the top four of the G2 Louisiana Derby. He didn’t get any favors at the draw for the G1 Blue Grass, where he’ll break from post 10 of 11. However, a win there firmly establishes him as one of the Kentucky Derby favorites.

Kentucky-Bred Pedigree: Sierra Leone was bred in Kentucky by Debby Oxley, out of the Grade 1-winning Malibu Moon mare Heavenly Love, who is the dam of one winner from two foals to race. Heavenly Love, who raced as a homebred for Oxley, has a page that includes Japanese champion Zenno Rob Roy, Grade 2 winner Forever Darling, and Grade 1-placed stakes winner Darling My Darling.

The Coolmore partnership secured Sierra Leone for $2.3 million at the 2022 Fasig-Tipton Saratoga Select Yearling Sale. Gainesway consigned the colt, as agent.

#3: Catching Freedom

Pedigree: Constitution - Catch My Drift (by Pioneerof the Nile)
Owner: Albaugh Family Stables
Trainer: Brad Cox
Breeder: WinStar Farm (KY)
Kentucky Derby points: 125

Catching Freedom finally had a clean trip (perhaps, not coincidentally, in his first start beneath jockey Flavien Prat) in the Louisiana Derby, and he responded by coming from well behind to get the money. He did have a respectable pace to chase, but he covered the last three-sixteenths of a mile (of a 1 3/16-mile race, no less) in well under 19 seconds. That’s an internal split that hints he won’t have a problem with an additional sixteenth in Kentucky.

Kentucky-Bred Pedigree: Catching Freedom was bred in Kentucky by WinStar Farm, out of the Grade 1-placed stakes-winning Pioneerof the Nile mare Catch My Drift. All three of Catch My Drift's foals to race are winners, also including Grade 3-placed Bishops Bay and stakes-placed Strava.

Catching Freedom sold for $575,000 at the 2022 Keeneland September Yearling Sale, consigned by Warrendale Sales, agent.

#4: Forever Young

Pedigree: Real Steel - Forever Darling (by Congrats)
Owner: Susumu Fujita
Trainer: Yoshito Yahagi
Breeder: Northern Farm (JPN)
Kentucky Derby points: 100

Forever Young enters this list at a high spot after capturing the G3 Saudi Derby and G2 UAE Derby. He’s won all five of his lifetime starts to this point, and his win Saturday at Meydan was very professional. He’s shown plenty of maturity and an ability to overcome trouble, which could come in handy in his first stateside start against 19 other young horses. No UAE Derby winner has ever won the roses, but the way Japan is breeding world-class horses, and using that race as a prep, says that’s a matter of “when,” not “if.”

#5: Honor Marie

Pedigree: Honor Code - Dame Marie (by Smart Strike)
Owners: Ribble Farms, Eiserman, Fishbein, and Fishbein
Trainer: D. Whitworth Beckman
Breeder: Royce Pullham (KY)
Kentucky Derby points: 65

Honor Marie bounced back from a season-opening dud with a strong second in the Louisiana Derby. Once again, he finished just a bit behind Catching Freedom, but unlike in the Risen Star, Honor Marie had a pace to rate behind (and it may have helped that this was his second start off a layoff). We know he likes Churchill Downs, given his win in last year’s G2 Kentucky Jockey Club, and the Derby will be the third start of his form cycle. Further improvement and a clean trip would certainly put him right there when it counts.

Kentucky-Bred Pedigree: Honor Marie was bred in Kentucky by Royce Pullham, out of the Grade 2-placed Smart Strike mare Dame Marie. He is a half-brother to Grade 2-placed Abarta. English St. Leger winner Rule of Law can be found further down the page, along with French Group 1 winner Feed the Flame and Grade 3 winner Sacred Life.

Honor Marie sold for $40,000 at the 2022 Keeneland September Yearling Sale. Taylor Made Sales Agency handled the colt, as agent.

#6: Dornoch

Pedigree: Good Magic - Puca (by Big Brown)
Owners: West Paces Racing, R.A. Hill Stable, Belmar Racing and Breeding, Two Eight Racing, and Pine Racing Stables
Trainer: Danny Gargan
Breeder: Grandview Equine (KY)
Kentucky Derby points: 60

Dornoch figured to have his biggest test to date in the G2 Fountain of Youth. After Locked, Victory Avenue, Merit, and Speak Easy scratched, such a test never materialized. Dornoch went off as the 1/5 favorite and won in professional fashion, likely securing his spot in the Kentucky Derby starting gate in the process. The “who did he beat?” question, however, is a valid one, and the full brother of last year’s Derby winner figures to get a much stiffer test in Saturday’s Blue Grass at Keeneland.

Kentucky-Bred Pedigree: Dornoch was bred in Kentucky by Grandview Equine, out of the Grade 2-placed stakes-winning Big Brown mare Puca. All three of her foals to race are winners, also including Kentucky Derby winner Mage and stakes-placed Gunning. Grade 1 winner Finnegans Wake can be found further down the page.

Dornoch sold for $325,000 at the 2022 Keeneland September Yearling Sale. Runnymede Farm consigned the colt, as agent.

#7: Domestic Product

Pedigree: Practical Joke - Goods And Services (by Paynter)
Owner: Klaravich Stables
Trainer: Chad Brown
Breeder: Klaravich Stables (KY)
Kentucky Derby points: 60

Domestic Product’s Tampa Bay Derby effort didn’t come back huge on speed figures, but it did impress me enough to make me think he could be a factor in Kentucky. For the second straight outing, he rallied into the teeth of a race shape that absolutely didn’t play kindly to his late-running style. This time, he overcame it to get the money. It wasn’t the highest-profile field we’ll see all season, sure, but he’s shown he can run well in the face of adversity, and that’s a valuable trait for any Derby hopeful.

Kentucky-Bred Pedigree: Domestic Product races as a Kentucky homebred for Klaravich Stables, out of the unraced Paynter mare Goods and Services, whose two foals to race are both winners. Grade 3 winner Cherokee Queen can be found in his extended family.

#8: Deterministic

Pedigree: Liam’s Map - Giulio’s Jewel (by Speightstown)
Owners: St. Elias Stable, Langone, Duncker, and Vicarage Stable
Trainer: Christophe Clement
Breeder: Hinkle Farms (KY)
Kentucky Derby points: 50

Deterministic has only run twice to date, and he’s never gone two turns. However, by way of defections and other horses running relative duds, he’s inched his way into the top 10 on this list. His win in the G3 Gotham was sharp, and it came off a long layoff over a demanding wet track at Aqueduct. The two-turn test comes in the G2 Wood Memorial on Saturday, in which he headlines a crowded field of 13 looking for Derby points. Deterministic doesn’t need any more points to clinch a spot in the field, but successfully navigating the two-turn route would give his connections and prospective Derby backers much more confidence.

Kentucky-Bred Pedigree: Deterministic was bred in Kentucky by Hinkle Farms, out of the winning Speightstown mare Giulio's Jewel, whose three foals to race are all winners. Grade/Group 2 winners Rabbit Run and Rainha Da Bateria, and Grade/Group 3 winners Asakusa Genki and Assateague are in his extended family, along with Breeders' Cup Juvenile runner-up He's Had Enough.

Deterministic sold to St. Elias Stables for $625,000 at the 2022 Keeneland September Yearling Sale, consigned by breeder Hinkle Farms.

#9: Endlessly

Pedigree: Oscar Performance - Dream Fuhrever (by Langfuhr)
Owner: Amerman Racing
Trainer: Michael McCarthy
Breeder: Mrs. Jerry Amerman (KY)
Kentucky Derby points: 100

New to this list, Endlessly was initially pointed to the G2 American Turf on the Kentucky Derby undercard. However, it appears the connections may have come down with a case of Derby Fever, as an audible has been called. 

It’s not without merit, as Endlessly has won five of six lifetime outings. Most recently, he won the G3 Jeff Ruby Steaks in impressive fashion. That race produced 2023 Kentucky Derby runner-up Two Phil’s, so horses can come from that race and run well in the big one.

Kentucky-Bred Pedigree: Endlessly was bred in Kentucky by Mrs. Jerry Amerman, out of the unraced Langfuhr mare Dream Fuhrever, who is the dam of two winners from five foals to race. His second dam is the French-bred Grade 3-placed stakes winner Society Dream, who is the pivot point for runners including Grade 1 winner Coffee Clique and Grade 3 winner Admission Office.

#10: Mystik Dan

Pedigree: Goldencents - Ma’am (by Colonel John)
Owners: Lance Gasaway, 4 G Racing, and Daniel Hamby
Trainer: Ken McPeek
Breeder: Lance Gasaway, Daniel Hamby & 4G Racing, LLC (KY)
Kentucky Derby points: 46

Mystik Dan romped to a win in the G3 Southwest two back and tried stiffer company in the G1 Arkansas Derby. He salvaged third in that race behind Muth, and he did so despite experiencing trouble that may have cost him second money. It wasn’t a bad effort, to be sure, and at least we know he’ll be moving the right direction when the real running starts next month at Churchill Downs. He may, however, be at his best over a wet track, so watch the weather forecast very carefully.

Kentucky-Bred Pedigree: Mystik Dan races as a Kentucky homebred for Gasaway, Hamby, and 4G Racing. He is the first foal to race out of the winning Colonel John mare Ma'am. He hails from the family of Grade 1 winner Siphonic.

#11: Just Steel

Pedigree: Justify - Irish Lights (by Fastnet Rock)
Owner: BC Stables
Trainer: D. Wayne Lukas
Breeder: Summerhill Farm (KY)
Kentucky Derby points: 65

Just Steel returns to this list after running second to Muth in the Arkansas Derby. The most battle-tested horse on this year’s Derby trail has already made 11 starts, banked more than $700,000, and given his legendary trainer another Kentucky Derby starter at 88 years of age. Toss his dud in the G2 Rebel, his only poor performance of this year to date, and his recent form looks considerably better.

Kentucky-Bred Pedigree: Just Steel was bred in Kentucky by Summerhill Farm, out of the Australian Thousand Guineas-winning Fastnet Rock mare Irish Lights. All five of her foals to race are winners, also including Australian Group 2 winner Omei Sword and English stakes winner Lipizzaner.

Just Steel sold for $500,000 at the 2022 Keeneland September Yearling Sale, consigned by Eaton Sales, agent.

#12: Track Phantom

Pedigree: Quality Road - Miss Sunset (by Into Mischief)
Owners: L and N Racing, Brewster, Caroom, and Breeze Easy
Trainer: Steve Asmussen
Breeder: Breeze Easy (KY)
Kentucky Derby points: 70

We have the first appearance of a distance question here. Track Phantom emerged as a player earlier this year at Fair Grounds, where he won the G3 Lecomte and ran a close-up second in the Risen Star. However, he stretched out in the Louisiana Derby, made the lead through solid but unspectacular fractions, and could manage no better than fourth. No, there aren’t many front-runners above him on this list, but it’s fair to wonder if the Derby trip is just a bit further than he truly wants to go.

Kentucky-Bred Pedigree: Track Phantom was bred in Kentucky by Breeze Easy, out of the Grade 2-winning Into Mischief mare Miss Sunset, whose two foals to race are both winners.

The colt sold for $500,000 at the 2022 Keeneland September Sale, consigned by Taylor Made Sales Agency, agent.

#13: Stronghold

Pedigree: Ghostzapper - Spectator (by Jimmy Creed)
Owners: Eric and Sharon Waller
Trainer: Phil D’Amato
Breeder: Eric Waller & Sharon Waller (KY)
Kentucky Derby points: 25

The G3 Sunland Park Derby isn’t one of the fancier Kentucky Derby preps, but Stronghold won it and, in doing so, added a graded stakes score to what’s becoming a pretty solid resume. He’s yet to finish worse than second in five career starts, and two of those runner-up finishes came in graded stakes races in California. He’s entered in Saturday’s G1 Santa Anita Derby, and all he needs to clinch a spot in the Kentucky Derby field is the handful of points that would come from a top-five finish.

Kentucky-Bred Pedigree: Stronghold races as a Kentucky homebred for Eric and Sharon Waller, and he is the first foal out of the Grade 2-winning Jimmy Creed mare Spectator. Spectator, second dam Diva's Tribute, and third dam Swiss Diva were all homebreds for the Waller program.

#14: Tuscan Gold

Pedigree: Medaglia d’Oro - Valadorna (by Curlin)
Owners: William Lawrence, Walmac Farm, and Stonestreet Stables
Trainer: Chad Brown
Breeder: Stonestreet Thoroughbred Holdings LLC (KY)
Kentucky Derby points: 25

Tuscan Gold ran against winners for the first time in the Louisiana Derby and acquitted himself pretty well. He was third that day behind Catching Freedom and Honor Marie despite stretching out to 1 3/16 miles in just his third lifetime start. Given the nature of this year’s 3-year-old group, that one effort may yield enough points to earn him a spot in the Derby field (we’ll likely know for sure after this weekend’s preps).

Kentucky-Bred Pedigree: Tuscan Gold was bred in Kentucky by Barbara Banke's Stonestreet Thoroughbred Holdings, and he is the first foal to race out of the Grade 3-winning Curlin mare Valadorna. The dam is a half-sister to Grade 1 winner and stallion Complexity.

Tuscan Gold sold to Jupiter Farm for $600,000 at the 2022 Keeneland September sale. Taylor Made Sales Agency consigned him, as agent.

#15: Catalytic

Pedigree: Catalina Cruiser - One Show Only (by Distorted Humor)
Owners: Bobo, Davies, and Isaacs
Trainer: Saffie Joseph, Jr.
Breeder: Fred W. Hertrich III
Kentucky Derby points: 40

Catalytic enters this list after running a distant second to Fierceness in the Florida Derby. Give him some credit, though, as he finished 2 1/2 lengths clear of the third and fourth-place finishers (and six lengths clear of the fifth-place finisher, G3 Holy Bull winner Hades). He’s run just three times to date, and the Florida Derby was his first two-turn start. He clearly needs to improve in order to compete with the best of his crop, but at least one can say another move forward isn’t totally out of the question.

Kentucky-Bred Pedigree: Catalytic was bred in Kentucky by Fred W. Hertrich III, out of the placed Distorted Humor mare One Show Only, who has had two winners from four foals to race. Grade 1 winner Bluegrass Cat can be found in his extended family, along with Grade 2 winners Lord of the Game and Dramedy.

Catalytic initially sold as a weanling to Machmer Hall for $70,000 at the 2021 Keeneland November Breeding Stock Sale, consigned by Warrendale Sales, agent. He then sold to FFF for $125,000 at the following year's Fasig-Tipton Saratoga Select Yearling Sale, consigned by Machmer Hall.

#16: Tuscan Sky

Pedigree: Vino Rosso - South Andros (by Sky Mesa)
Owner: Spendthrift Farm
Trainer: Todd Pletcher
Breeder: Sierra Farm (KY)
Kentucky Derby points: 0

Tuscan Sky entered the rankings after an optional claiming win on the Risen Star undercard. He beat just two others in that race, but one of them was Nash, a highly-touted 3-year-old that ran second in the Lecomte and went on to win the Hot Springs Stakes at Oaklawn. That was this gray’s second win in as many starts, coming a month after a five-length debut victory at Aqueduct. He’ll be back at the Big A for the Wood, where he likely needs a top-two finish to earn a spot in the Kentucky Derby field.

Kentucky-Bred Pedigree: Tuscan Sky was bred in Kentucky by Sierra Farm, out of the stakes-winning Sky Mesa mare South Andros, whose two winners from as many runners also includes Grade 2 winner Private Creed.

Spendthrift Farm purchased Tuscan Sky for $200,000 at the 2022 Fasig-Tipton July Yearling Sale. Greenfield Farms consigned the colt, as agent.

#17: Common Defense

Pedigree: Karakontie - Allusion (by Street Cry)
Owners: Bernsen, Holmes, Holmes, and Norevale Farm
Trainer: Ken McPeek
Breeder: Tony Holmes, Norevale Farm & Union Dale (KY)
Kentucky Derby points: 37

Common Defense made his first-ever start away from Oaklawn Park in the Louisiana Derby. He didn’t run terribly, but after chasing Track Phantom in the early going, he, too, had little left when the closers came calling. He finished fifth, though, and likely earned enough points to make the field should his connections want to go that route. If not, there are plenty of options for the horse that ran second to Timberlake in the Rebel.

Kentucky-Bred Pedigree: Common Defense was bred in Kentucky by the partnership of Tony Holmes, Norevale Farm and Union Dale. He is out of the unplaced Street Cry mare Allusion, who has produced two winners from four foals to race. Grade 2 winner Fearless and Grade 3 winner Far From Over can be found on his page.

#18: T O Password

Pedigree: Copano Rickey - To Rachel (by King Kamehameha)
Owner: Tomoya Ozasa
Trainer: Daisuke Takayanagi
Breeder: Yanagawa Bokujo (JPN)
Kentucky Derby points: 40

T O Password comes from Japan, and he’ll contest the Kentucky Derby after hanging on to take the Fukuryu Stakes. He needed the wire desperately in that race, but he got it, and he does have a right to improve in what will be just his third lifetime start. If you’re curious about the pedigree, a deeper dive reveals names like Sunday Silence, Timber Country, and Kingmambo, so there’s every right for him to have some staying power.

#19: No More Time

Pedigree: Not This Time - Baroness Juliette (by Speightstown)
Owner: Morplay Racing
Trainer: Jose D’Angelo
Breeder: MAMAS Thoroughbreds, LLC (IA)
Kentucky Derby points: 45

No More Time won the G3 Sam F. Davis and would have been one of the favorites in the Tampa Bay Derby (if, you know, we’d been able to bet on it…). Unlike the Davis, where he made the lead and led at every call, he stalked a slow pace behind a Tampa Bay Derby front-runner that had everything his own way. He didn’t hold on for the lion’s share of the purse, but a runner-up finish netted him 25 more Kentucky Derby points and likely assured the Iowa-bred of a spot in this year’s Derby field.

#20: West Saratoga

Pedigree: Exaggerator - Mo Wicked (by Uncle Mo)
Owner: Harry Veruchi
Trainer: Larry Demeritte
Breeder: Two Hearts Farm II LLC (KY)
Kentucky Derby points: 67

The battle-tested West Saratoga entered this list after what’s already the 10th start of his young career. That came in the Jeff Ruby Steaks, where he was second behind the recently-rerouted Endlessly. Prior to that, he was third behind No More Time in the Sam F. Davis, and he did win the G3 Iroquois over the Churchill Downs surface as a 2-year-old.

Kentucky-Bred Pedigree: West Saratoga was bred in Kentucky by Two Hearts Farm II LLC, out of the unraced Uncle Mo mare Mo Wicked, whose two foals to race are both winners. Grade 1 winner Wickedly Perfect can be found in his extended family.

West Saratoga sold to Harry Veruchi for $11,000 at the 2022 Keeneland September sale. Hidden Brook consigned the colt, as agent.