Why Herta will Succeed in F1

With Colton Herta, the hyped-up American is finally heading to Europe after years of speculation about him coming over. But while many are excited, others are doubtful of his ability to hang in the most competitive league in racing. Like me, but looking at the stats closely shows I was wrong.

His Lack of an IndyCar Title

The most glaring thing about Herta’s F1 attempt is that he couldn’t even get it done at the American level. Even drivers with titles in American open wheel, like Michael Andretti, da Matta, Zanardi, and Bourdais, came over to F1 and struggled, so if 1st place doesn’t always cut it, why would someone who’s finished a best of 2nd cut it? Well, that’s because looking at the surface on paper hides plenty of challenges that others didn’t deal with and flaws Herta won’t have to deal with in F1. The first being Andretti Global itself.

The 30+ year team has been highly revered since its inception, and with five American open-wheel titles and six Indy 500 victories, it’s easy to see why. So why blame them at all? Well, looking closer at Andretti during this time shows that they weren’t a team capable of winning an IndyCar title during this time period. During this time, Andretti had its pot in every pie.

V8 Supercars, electric scooters, Extreme E, and global and American rallycross, plus, of course, trying to become an F1 team, and it was all too much. They made the mistake that so many others, including Spire, have made: they attempted to build from top down. They looked at Penske and Hendrick, seeing where they were now and not the years of work it took to get there, which caused them to overexpand.

The IndyCar team suffered because it was the main operation that kept having to take from it. That’s how Herta went from finishing 3rd in points at 20 years old to finishing 10th in points in back-to-back years. From 2021 to 2023, there was only 1 Andretti car that finished 5th in points (the driver who accomplished that was Herta) and five total times of finishing in the top 10 in points. The only 2 drivers who finished top 10 in points those 3 years were Rossi and Herta.

In 1 of those years, every Andretti car was beaten in points by 1 of the Rahal cars, even. But after Michael Andretti was axed from the team for the cryptocurrency scandal, this no longer applies. Many of those teams were shut down, and in 2024, he finished 2nd in points, not 1st, so why should we believe he can be a good F1 driver?

Herta’s Oval Struggles

Well, he already has the skillset of a good F1 driver; after all, what’s been holding him back from winning that IndyCar title is that he sucks at ovals. This season, Herta has only earned 95 points at ovals in 2025 in total. Putting him 17th in the IndyCar oval standings. None of his nine career wins and only 1 of his 19 career podiums were at an oval. He’s never even finished top 5 at the Indy 500 and only has 2 top tens in 6 attempts, in fact. Now, if you’re going for an IndyCar title, that’s a terrible trait to have. But guess what series doesn’t have ovals for him to suck at? That’s right, F1!

Final Thoughts

Now, of course, Herta doesn’t have experience at most of these foreign tracks or has only small experience from his European junior formula days. But that’s what his time in F2 and as Cadillac’s reserve driver is looking to make up for. To deny that Herta has the raw speed is to deny reality.

His 16 poles on what was, for most of his career, an A-to-B+ tier equipment show that, and he has improved significantly in race management since his 2020 days. I don’t think he’ll be a world champion, but not everyone has to be. I think he can be competitive and be a solid young driver to build around. Thanks a bunch for reading!