1 disappointing player Rays must trade in offseason

The Rays have always operated on a tight budget, so they want to find advantages that few other teams could. Through the years, their MO has been to find players who can play across the diamond, play solid to incredible defense, and get on base at a reasonable clip. They are also looking at sabermetrics to find hidden gems; this was how they found Yandy Diaz, who has done nothing but produce since the Rays acquired him in 2018.

In Diaz, they saw an undervalued hitter who had incredible on-base skills, and the Rays developmental team helped him unlock his full potential. He has a career .815 OPS with the Rays, and for him to be a relatively unheralded acquisition back then speaks volumes to the front office’s ability to identify undervalued talents.

But it seems as though the Rays have strayed from their typical roster-building ways when they acquired Christopher Morel from the Chicago Cubs in a trade for infielder Isaac Paredes. Paredes was doing well for the Rays; in fact, before he was traded by Tampa Bay in July 2024, he was boasting a slash line of .245/.357/.435 — with his on-base skills making him a gem that not too many people knew about.

So for the Rays to trade an All-Star player for Morel, who, at 26 years of age, showed a ton of potential for the Cubs, speaks volumes to how much they believe in his underlying metrics. And perhaps there is indeed strong reason to believe in Morel’s potential.

Baseball Savant shows that Morel rates quite well in average exit velocity (91.4 miles per hour), barrel percentage (18.3 percent), hard-hit percentage (48.7), and bat speed (76.0). That shows that when Morel makes contact, he hits the ball hard. But Morel doesn’t make contact often, and he usually hits balls at suboptimal launch angles. His chase rate of 31.7 percent is far from the worst, but he whiffs and strikes out far too often, with his whiff rate being at 39.3 percent and his strikeout rate at 36.1 percent.

But Morel is not making up for his huge strikeout numbers with above-average on-base skills. In modern baseball, outs are weighted the same, so teams don’t mind that much if one strikes out often or if most of his outs come on fly or ground balls. What’s important is that they get on base and generate run value. Morel is not doing much of that; his walk rate is at a career-worst 7.4 percent, and his wRC+ stands at 92 — which is a major improvement over his first half-season with the Rays, but is still below league-average.

Perhaps more time is what Morel needs to get it together. But he’s done nothing but struggle with the Rays. The first two seasons of his career showed that he can back up his impressive underlying metrics with good production, but the past two seasons have been dismal for the 26-year-old. A change of scenery may be what’s required to get the best out of him.

Considering how much the Rays gave up to bring Morel in via trade, it will sting to sell low on him. But that would simply mean that they will fall prey to the sunk cost fallacy. Perhaps they could sucker in another team that believes they can get the best out of Morel and find value for him in the trade market that way.

Assessing the rest of the Rays roster

Josh Lowe is someone the Rays might consider trading this offseason; his underlying metrics have gone down this season, and he’s one year closer to exhausting all years of team control. It might be best for Tampa Bay to get value for him while they could. But Lowe can play all three outfield positions, and the Rays do love themselves positional flexibility, so Lowe might yet have a long leash from the organization.

Other potential trade candidates for the Rays aren’t struggling this year, but Tampa Bay may end up shopping them anyway to get value for them before they hit free agency. One of those players is Brandon Lowe; Lowe has one year left on his deal, as he’s set to enter free agency following the 2026 season.

He’s been solid in 2025 yet again, having tallied 28 home runs and 74 runs batted in on an OPS of .805, but Tampa Bay has shown in the past that they’re more than willing to cycle through their big-leaguers if it means that they get extra years of team control in the process.

Closer Pete Fairbanks is in a similar situation; the Rays could shop him before he enters the final year of his deal in 2026. But there shouldn’t be any shortage of suitors for him anyway considering how in demand bullpen arms are come July. However, if the Rays want to insure themselves in the event that Fairbanks struggles in 2026, then they could trade him away this offseason.