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On July 9th, 2023, the baseball world focused its eyes on the MLB Draft. With a pair of generational prospects coming out of LSU in Paul Skenes and Dylan Crews, nobody was sure which route the Pirates were going to take with the first pick.
Even though they weren’t picking first, the Washington Nationals were in a win-win position. Either Pittsburgh would select one of the former National Champions, and the Nationals could scoop up the other, or they go off the board, leaving both up for grabs.
The Pirates opted to take Paul Skenes, allowing the Nationals to select outfielder Dylan Crews with ease. With Crews being one of the best college draft prospects ever, this couldn’t have worked out better for the Nationals.
Fast forward a year later, and Crews is now on the cusp of breaking out, after reaching the Major Leagues just over a year after being drafted.
Crews’ Promising Minor League Numbers
Before he’d make his Major League debut, Crews started the season in the Minor Leagues. First with the Double-A Harrisburg Senators, followed by a stint with the Rochester Red Wings in Triple-A.
Crews played in 100 games between both levels, and he looked very good in the process.
The 22-year-old phenom hit 13 homers, an 8% walk rate, and a 20.5% strikeout rate, while slashing .270/.342/.451 with a .354 wOBA, and a 115 wRC+.
The most important takeaway from Crews’ time in the minors, came during his stint in Triple-A with the Red Wings.
Crews’ batted ball numbers were very impressive all across the board. Most notably, his hard-hit rate of 43.9% sat towards the top of the Triple-A leaderboard. In addition to this, Crews also put up an encouraging 6.4% barrel rate, something that will work to his benefit in the Major Leagues.
These batted ball metrics also led to Crews registering some solid exit velocity numbers. He averaged a 90.2 MPH exit velocity, which is impressive for a Triple-A hitter.
Along with this, his 90th percentile exit velocity of 106.3 MPH, and his max exit velocity of 112.6 MPH were both encouraging as well.
With Crews posting such eye-popping exit velocity numbers, attention shifted to his plate discipline. Crews also showed some success in this area as well.
His zone contact percentage of 86.5% highlighted his abilities, even though he didn’t swing often within the strike zone.
Crews wouldn’t do as well against pitches outside of the strike zone though, as both his out-of-zone swing and out-of-zone contact rates sit below the league average.
The Nationals saw enough solid play from Crews to decide he was ready for the jump to the Major Leagues, and they’d promote him on August 26th.
Crews’ Time in the Majors: Promising, with Room to Grow
After making his Major League debut on August 26th, Crews played 31 games for the Nationals to close out the season. While he didn’t match his Minor League production, he showed glimpses of his potential.
In this 31-game stretch, he’d hit three homers, an 8.3% walk rate, a 19.7% strikeout rate, slash .218/.288/.353 with a .325 xwOBA, alongside an 80 wRC+ and a 0.5 fWAR.
On the surface, this may not be the most impressive stat line, but when you take a deeper look at the numbers, there’s reason to be excited for Crews’ 2025 season.
For starters, Crews continued his trend of hitting the ball very hard, posting a 44.7% hard-hit rate. While he didn’t play enough games to qualify for most of the Major League leaderboards, this would’ve likely put Crews in the top 25% or better of all MLB hitters.
In addition to this, Crews posted a 30.5% squared up rate, which would’ve ranked near the top 15% of all MLB hitters. This is a very impressive indication of the type of hitter Crews can be with some more fine tuning.
Crews also demonstrated above-average plate discipline metrics. He’d chase just 26.6% of the time, alongside a whiff rate of 22.8%. Once again, these metrics aren’t incredibly impressive, but they indicate room for growth in 2025.
Crews also faired pretty well against 4-seam fastballs, which is a great sign. He saw them the most out of any pitch, putting up an xwOBA of .454, and a hard-hit rate of 45.2%. He also whiffed just 7.8% of the time against them.
Aside from how Crews performed at the plate, he also looked very good in other areas of his game as well.
As a fielder, Crews also showed a lot of promise. He posted an OAA of 3, alongside a solid arm. His arm posted a run value of 1, with his arm strength sitting around 90 MPH.
Crews has always been a promising defender, and it’s large in part to his speed. His sprint speed of 29.3 MPH put him within the top 7% of all Major Leaguers, which could give him even more range in center field, although Jacob Young‘s stellar defense will likely keep him in right.
This speed gave him the ability to swipe 12 bags in just 31 games. Across a full season at this pace, Crews would steal over 60 bags!
While Crews’ overall production during his first taste of the Majors was around league average, his pedigree as one of the game’s top prospects leaves room for optimism.
With additional reps in 2025, Crews should continue to grow as a hitter. Many of the metrics he recorded in the Majors point toward a significant upside, which he could reach very soon.
Why I Believe Crews Will Break Out
Taking Crews’ strengths into consideration, I firmly believe he’s on track to break out in 2025.
The most encouraging area of his game that he showcased in the Majors, would be his plate discipline. As I previously mentioned, his low chase rates, whiff rates, and lower strikeout rate all give me a lot of hope for his discipline.
I’m also encouraged by his hard-hit rates and solid exit velocities he posted at both Triple-A and the Major Leagues, giving him a solid foundation for growth as he gets more reps. At his peak, Crews could be consistently hitting the ball hard, maintaining a hard-hit rate near 45% or higher.
Crews has the potential to be a 30-30 player in a full Major League season, with his raw power and raw speed both being key pieces of his game. If he reaches this ceiling, Crews may become one of the better players in all of baseball by the end of the year, having a good shot to take home the NL Rookie of the Year Award.
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