2025 MLB Farm Review: Houston Astros

The Woodpeckers’ pitching staff featured an awful lot of swing-and-miss, thanks to several pitchers scooped up by Houston in the 2024 MLB Draft.

Fifth-round pick Cole Hertzler (39.8% Whiff%) did very well when he was healthy. However, Hertzler missed four months on the injured list. The same could be said for 16th-round pick Bryce Mayer (39.4% Whiff%), who was not long for the Low-A level. Mayer struck out 30 over 17.2 IP before he was moved to Asheville.

Alonzo Tredwell (34.1% Whiff%), the Astros’ second-round pick from 2023, started in Low-A again after pitching with the Woodpeckers in 2024. This time around, despite allowing six home runs in 48 innings, it went better. Tredwell struck out 52 over 48 innings for Fayetteville.

The Astros also saw Joan Ogando (113 K, 35.8% Whiff% over 95 IP) and Abel Mercedes (66 K, 46.9% Whiff% over 41.1 IP) have big strikeout years. However, Mercedes, taken by the Athletics in the Minor League phase of the Rule 5 Draft, had a lot of walk problems. He surrendered 48 and hit nine batters.

As for the offense, there was power. Caden Powell and Cam Fisher each hit 10 home runs to tie for the team lead. However, both, along with 2024 draft pick Jason Schiavone, had their swing-and-miss problems. Fisher, a fourth-round pick from 2023, was released in July.

Arguably, the big standout for Fayetteville was Ethan Frey, the Astros’ third-round pick this past July from LSU. Frey handled Low-A very well, as the 21-year-old picked up eight extra-base hits and walked 20 times over 26 games. He netted himself a 19.8% Whiff% with the Woodpeckers.

Asheville Tourists

The Asheville Tourists’ roster included two interesting power-hitting catchers: Will Bush and Walker Janek.

Janek would be the name that most have heard of. The 23-year-old was the 28th-overall pick out of Sam Houston State in 2024 after a strong collegiate career, one that saw Janek become one of the best hitters in Division I.

His first pro season went fine, despite a 7.5% BB% that ranked 39th out of 45 hitters in the South Atlantic League that qualified for that statistic. Janek slashed .263/.333/.433 with 12 home runs and 35 extra-base hits across 92 games. However, he posted a Whiff% north of 32%.

Bush, who posted a Whiff% just a shade above 28%, hit very well. The 21-year-old from Tyler JC cracked 24 extra-base hits across 73 contests with the Tourists. Bush, a 2023 draft pick, was promoted to Double-A in August.

Chase Jaworsky, a fifth-rounder out of high school in 2023, held his own in High-A. Jaworsky picked up 15 extra-base hits, walked 14.4% of the time, stole 24 bases, and posted one of the lowest Whiff% (21.5%) in the organization. Houston traded him in July, along with Ryan Gusto and Esmil Valencia, to acquire Jesus Sanchez.

Lastly, Joseph Sullivan, a seventh-rounder from 2024 out of South Alabama, had a big year with the Tourists. Sullivan hit a team-high 15 home runs, 28 extra-base hits, a sub-30% Whiff%, and also tallied 34 stolen bases.

Moving on, reliever Colby Langford struck out a team-high 87 over 60.2 IP. The 23-year-old’s 33% Whiff% ranked among the best in the Sally League.

Juan Bello, whom the Astros acquired for Ryan Pressly last January, struck out 66 over 65.2 IP. Bello posted a 28.6% in the SAL.

Bryce Mayer (26% Whiff%) didn’t miss many bats in High-A. However, Mayer struck out 45 over 41 innings with Asheville, while opposing batters hit just .192 off him. Mayer pitched in three levels this season, capping out at Double-A.

However, the star of the Tourists — when he was healthy — was Anderson Brito.

Brito, a hard-throwing righty who can flirt with triple-digits, struck out 65 over 49.1 IP during what was an injury-shortened year. His 30.3% Whiff% ranked above the league median.

Corpus Christi Hooks

The Hooks’ group of hitters included a lot of draft picks (i.e., Colin Barber, Austin Deming) who haven’t panned out. In both of their cases, both are now free agents, as Deming was released while Barber became a Minor League free agent in November.

Zach Cole, a 10th-round pick from 2022, wound up being the star of the show in Corpus Christi. Cole hit 14 home runs and 39 extra-base hits across 82 games, numbers that helped him push to Triple-A. He also wound up being a major factor for the big club down the stretch.

Cole posted some of the bat speed in the Majors once he arrived in Houston. However, that sometimes comes with a cost — and it does with Cole. His 38.7% Whiff% ranked among the ten worst in the Texas League.

Joseph Sullivan slashed .191/.357/.264 with 42 strikeouts over 31 games.

As for the pitching staff, it was a big rebound year for left-hander Trey Dombroski. Dombroski, who possesses an 89-91 MPH, coupled with a curveball and changeup, ranked just inside the top-40 in terms of Whiff% (29.9%) in the Texas League this past year among pitchers.

It was a significant improvement for the former Monmouth pitcher, who conceded 21 home runs over 97.2 IP. Dombroski wasn’t protected from the Rule 5 Draft but went undrafted.

Alonzo Tredwell ended 2025 on a dominant note, as he struck out 40 over 22.2 IP and walked 12 for the Hooks. Tredwell posted a 32.7% Whiff% in the short sample size.

Alex Santos, who was the Astros’ top pick in 2020, struck out 38 over 29.1 IP but continued his familiar command problems. Santos walked 23 batters.

However, perhaps the best story to come out of the Hooks was James Hicks. Hicks, who was arguably the biggest standout in the AFL this past fall, didn’t miss a ton of bats, only recording a Whiff% just above 21%. On the other hand, he still struck out 46 over 46.2 IP and posted a tidy GB% of 46.9%.

Sugar Land Space Cowboys

Anytime a pitcher posts a sub-4.00 ERA across significant innings in the Pacific Coast League, you have to pay attention.

Miguel Ullola, a 23-year-old with a strong track record, accomplished that feat with Sugar Land. Ullola struck out 131 batters over 113.2 IP. The right-hander did concede a fair number of walks, as he allowed 78 with the Space Cowboys. Additionally, his 5.4% Barrel% ranked very well; it sat 22nd among the 114 pitchers who conceded at least 225 batted balls.

Ullola’s fastball is one that plays up and out of the zone. The right-hander ranked very high in terms of extension, as he often reached seven inches to make that mid-90s fastball even harder to catch up to. And, he induced plenty of swing-and-miss in the zone.

The 23-year-old was one of several positive stories to come out of Sugar Land. Colton Gordon, Brandon Walter, and Jason Alexander all pitched well, and all three also received significant time in the Astros’ injury-depleted rotation last year.

Moving on to the offense, Shay Whitcomb hit 25 home runs in the PCL this past season. That gave Whitcomb, who bounced around between Sugar Land and Houston in 2024 and 2025, 50 over the last two seasons. Catcher Collin Price (32.1% Whiff%) showed power and swing-and-miss. Price belted 18 home runs and 39 extra-base hits.

Jacob Melton (.945 OPS) belted 22 extra-base hits over 35 contests in what was an injury-shortened year for him. He had several stints on the IL between Triple-A and the MLB.

Zach Cole made a large impact across only 15 games. Cole hit five home runs and nine extra-base hits in 15 games.

Lastly, Brice Matthews had a good overall year. Matthews slashed .260/.371/.458 with 17 home runs, 41 stolen bases, and 42 extra-base hits over 112 games. He made his MLB debut this past July.

However, there are cracks in Matthews’ game.

For one, Matthews sported one of the highest in-zone Whiff% (25.9%) in Triple-A last season. As we noted in July when Matthews was initially promoted to the Majors, he had immense difficulties getting to velocity up in the zone.

Early Projected Top 5 for 2026

1. Brice Matthews
2. Miguel Ullola
3. Xavier Neyens
4. Walker Janek
5. Ethan Frey

Thanks to the Mike Burrows trade, Anderson Brito — who would have likely been the #1 prospect — is now a member of the Rays‘ organization. Thus, we’ll keep Matthews at the top prospect, with Ullola right behind him.

There’s not a lot of separation between the top four. After that, things do get interesting.

Kevin Alvarez posted a .874 OPS with 17 extra-base hits as a 17-year-old in the DSL. Alvarez was a big bonus baby, as the Astros gave him $2MM last year. However, we’ll go with Frey, who hit very well in Low-A after coming over from LSU, to fill out the five.