2025 MLB First-Half Recap: Toronto Blue Jays

The Pitching

The Good

Toronto put to bed arguably the biggest question heading into 2025 early: Would Vladimir Guerrero Jr. re-sign? He did, as Toronto signed Guerrero Jr. to a 15-year, $500MM deal that will keep him under contract until 2039, his age-40 season.

While the power numbers have not been elite for Guerrero Jr. this season, he cracked 31 extra-base hits and posted a strong .384 OBP this season. That on-base percentage is good for seventh in the Majors.

Additionally, the 2025 season is a contract year for Bo Bichette. After an injury-riddled 2024 season, Bichette’s been as advertised, as he currently ranks fifth in the Majors in total hits (111).

However, the real story among the Jays’ offense has been the support pieces. Alejandro Kirk and Ernie Clement both entered the break with 85+ hits, and their ability to put the ball in play is a key reason why the team ranks first in Whiff% and second in batting average (.258).

Addison Barger‘s rise has given the Jays a much-needed left-handed bat with power. And, George Springer‘s bat speed has returned, and so have his power numbers. Springer, with 16 home runs as of the break, is on pace for his first 20-home run season in two years.

Those names are a key reason why the Jays, a team that was in the bottom half of the league in several major offensive categories, have flipped the script in 2025.

As for the pitching staff, the Jays have received quality innings from Jose Berrios, Chris Bassitt, and Kevin Gausman, all of whom have made 19+ starts this season. Eric Lauer, who started 2025 in Triple-A, struck out 58 over 55 this season and has provided value in the back half of the rotation.

Toronto ranked top-five in the Majors in strikeouts heading into the break. However, that’s largely a function of their bullpen, led by Jeff Hoffman, Brendon Little, as well as middle relievers Paxton Schultz and Braydon Fisher. All of those pitchers have K/9 rates north of 10.0 this season.

The Bad

What’s interesting about the Jays’ offensive production jump is that the key contributors over the last week have not been the individuals picked up as notable additions this past winter.

Andres Gimenez, a former All-Star who’s more known for his defense but can get on base and punch hits, was acquired in December and got off to a strong start. In fact, he actually slotted in as the team’s cleanup hitter early. But from April 10 through July 4, Gimenez — now on the IL — batted .210/.279/.275 (.554 OPS) across 48 games.

However, the big addition this winter was Anthony Santander, the former 40-home run hitter from Baltimore. Toronto gave Santander a five-year deal in January, a move that appeared to solidify their 2025 lineup. Unfortunately, Santander got off to an extremely tough start.

Santander posted a .577 OPS across his first 50 games, which can be somewhat attributed to the fact that he was playing through a shoulder dislocation suffered in early May. His power numbers took a massive hit, as he suffered the lowest slugging percentage drop year-to-year between 2024 and 2025.

(For reference, Guerrero Jr.’s SLG dropped -.109 year-to-year, 10th-worst among players qualified for this list. However, Guerrero Jr. has still maintained good production.)

As for the team’s pitching staff, the one true blemish was Bowden Francis, who surrendered 19 home runs over his first 64 innings. Like Santander, Francis is currently on the IL.

What to Expect in the Second Half

If the season ended today, the Blue Jays would be in first place in the AL East but not in a top-two spot. Instead, Toronto would match up with the Mariners in the AL Wild Card Round, which would be a repeat of the 2022 season.

But before the Jays can get there, the team will have to take care of a few things.

One, the Jays could use another starter to provide additional depth. Toronto is without Bowden Francis, who, as mentioned earlier, did not repeat his 2024 results this season. Spencer Turnbull and Easton Lucas were among the options tried earlier his season.

Second, can the Jays get a healthy Santander back soon?