2025 MLB Rule 5 Draft Recap

The Rule 5 Draft is one of baseball’s most unique and compelling events, serving as the closing act of the Winter Meetings, evidenced by the suitcases sitting right outside the room.

It is a calculated gamble where teams, eager to unearth a hidden gem, comb through the unprotected minor league rosters of their competitors, looking for that player who is ready to make the leap to the Major Leagues.

Generally speaking, only about 50% of players stick, but last year, only four of the 15 selections remained with their new team for the entirety of the season. That said, two of which were quite impactful players on rebuilding teams, with Liam Hicks appearing in 119 games for the Marlins at catcher, first base, and DH, while Shane Smith was the White Sox’s most reliable starter in 2025.

For each selection below, we will first list the player’s new team, followed at the end by the team that they were selected from.

You’ll notice a confidence percentage atop each of the reports on the 13 selections of this year’s Rule 5 Draft. While admittedly somewhat of an arbitrary number, I thought it would be a fun thought exercise to illustrate how well I think their arsenal or skill set on display last season would translate to MLB.

Rockies: RJ Petit, RHP, Tigers

Confidence: 75%

A mountain of a man, Petit stands at 6-foot-8, 300 pounds, but has a pretty good feel for his arsenal, especially the plus slider that sits in the mid-80s. He went to the slurvy slider more than 30% of the time, generating a chase rate north of 40% while holding opponents to a .530 OPS.

His four-seam fastball averaged 96 MPH in 2025, with a sinker about two ticks below that, which he likes to run in on the hands of righties. Petit finished the year with Triple-A success, racking up more ground balls and filling up the zone at a respectable clip.

Petit’s arsenal is one that makes sense for the Rockies to covet, as his shorter, harder slider is less affected by altitude than other bigger breakers, along with two different fastball shapes he can utilize.

White Sox: Jedixson Paez, RHP, Red Sox

Confidence: 30%

Paez is a strike thrower, evidenced by his 3.9% walk rate in his professional career. An injury cut his 2025 season to just 19 1/3 innings, so the soon-to-be 22-year-old has yet to pitch above High-A.

His ability to fill up the zone with a five-pitch mix raises the floor, but his fastball has only been sitting in the low 90s since the start of the 2024 season, and his moderate workload in 2025 creates two obstacles.

It will be interesting to see how the White Sox plan to utilize Paez as his arsenal is that of a starter, but even in his healthy 2025 season, he was rarely eclipsing 75 pitches and did not surpass 50 pitches in his seven starts last year.

Paez’s changeup is an above-average pitch that plays up with his ability to execute, and the curveball shape looked improved in his limited action last season.

His stuff does not afford him a huge margin for error, but if the White Sox ease him into action in a mop-up role, his strike-throwing would fit the part, with the goal of developing the right-hander into a potential back-end arm or swing man.

How much patience the White Sox have with the young right-hander will surely impact his chances of sticking as well as the role they deploy him in, but whether it’s in mop-up duty, a piggyback role, or middle relief, he will need to prove that he can miss big league bats.

Nationals: Griff McGarry, RHP, Phillies

Confidence: 30%

It looks like the new Nationals front office does care how hard you throw ball four now, but the good news is, McGarry did that at the lowest rate of his career last year (13.9%) while moving back into a starter’s role.

While still too high a figure to succeed in the big leagues, the Nationals are hoping the positive trend can continue as he entered the 2025 season with a career walk rate of 18.7%.

McGarry may have the best stuff of any arm that was available in the Rule 5 Draft. Opponents hit .180 against him in 2025 with a 35% strikeout rate.

His sweeping curveball is a wipeout pitch, averaging 17.5 inches of horizontal in the low 80s. The fastball sits in the mid-90s with good ride that plays up from a low release. His mid-80s slider is an effective third pitch as well.

Only four MLB pitchers eclipsed 50 innings with a walk rate higher than what McGarry did, so the odds are of course stacked against him, but the Nationals can afford to be more patient than most other teams, adding a Rule 5 arm to their bullpen.

Twins (traded to Giants): Daniel Susac, C, Athletics

Confidence: 40%

Initially selected by the Twins, Susac was then traded to the Giants, where he will have a chance to be Patrick Bailey’s backup. A first-round pick in 2022, Susac has produced decent offensive numbers as a pro and is coming off a career-best 18 homers in a hitter-friendly PCL. Given how productive hitters are in the launch pad of a league, Susac’s .832 OPS was only good for a 94 wRC+.

Susac has progressed into an average defender behind the dish and could offer average power, but the hit tool is closer to 40-grade, and he has consistently run a high chase rate in the minor leagues.

The backup catcher role is one that can accommodate patience, helping Susac’s chances of sticking, though he does not have a ton of margin for error, as most of his tools are average at best.

Pirates (traded to Rangers): Carter Baumler, RHP, Orioles

Confidence: 60%

Baumler has battled plenty of injuries in his professional career, only tossing 88 2/3 innings since being selected in the fifth round of the 2020 draft, 39 2/3 of which came last season.

His history of shoulder issues is particularly concerning, which is why the Orioles were particularly careful with him in 2025, almost never throwing him on less than two days’ rest between relief appearances.

In his 26 appearances between High-A and Double-A, Baumler was fantastic, pitching to a 1.95 ERA while striking out 30% of batters. His fastball has flashed as a 70-grade offering, generating elite ride while averaging 96 MPH. Over his final 20 appearances of the season, Baumbler held opponents to a .168 batting average overall and .133 batting average against his fastball.

His downer curveball tunnels well off of it, averaging 33 inches of vertical separation from his fastball at 83-85 MPH. There’s no doubt that Baumler has big league stuff, and he threw more strikes as the season progressed, with a 67% overall strike rate on the season. It’s really just all about health for Baumler to stick with the Rangers.

Athletics (traded to Red Sox): Ryan Watson, RHP, Giants

Confidence: 50%

Signed by the Orioles as a non-drafted free agent in 2020, Watson worked as both a starter and reliever in his first three pro seasons before fully making the move to the bullpen in 2024.

Watson proved to be more effective out of the bullpen, pitching to a sub-3 ERA between Double-A and Triple-A, catching the attention of the Giants, who acquired him at the end of the year.

Watson’s nine saves in 2025 tied for the Sacramento River Cats lead, and his 28% strikeout rate was the highest of his career.

When you look beneath the hood, it’s easy to understand how. Watson’s fastball jumped by a tick, and he cut his walk rate by more than 4% from the previous two seasons combined.

The stuff points more towards middle relief, with Watson’s superb command of his above-average slider in particular helping his case.

Cardinals: Matt Pushard, RHP, Marlins

Confidence: 40%

Pushard pitched at the University of Maine for parts of six seasons, redshirting after an injury limited him to just one appearance in his sophomore season, and the shortened 2020 COVID season bought him another year of eligibility.

He signed with the Marlins as a non-drafted free agent in 2022, making his pro debut at 24 years old. He quickly pitched his way to the upper levels and continued to succeed. In 174 professional innings, Pushard has pitched to a 3.21 ERA with a 27.6% strikeout rate.

The fastball leads the way for Pushard, ticking up to average 95.5 MPH in 2025 with sneaky run and ride that plays up from a slight cross-fire delivery. Nothing stands out shape-wise, but it’s clearly a tough fastball for hitters to get to, evidenced by his results last season, which were spectacular at Triple-A, boasting a 74% strike rate, 30% zone whiff, 35% chase, and .162 opponent batting average.

It will be interesting to see if the fastball plays as well at the big league level, and it probably will need to perform at a plus clip for him to stick.

Pushard’s sweeper looks like an average or better pitch, but with inconsistent execution, and he will mix in a cutter as well.

It’s likely middle-relief stuff, and his chances of sticking with the Cardinals are largely dependent on whether the fastball will continue to outperform as the pitch data may imply at the highest level.

Astros: Roddery Munoz, RHP, Reds

Confidence: 50%

A rare instance of a Rule 5 Draft pick with nearly 100 MLB innings under his belt, Munoz signed a Minor League deal with the Reds earlier in the offseason, making him eligible to be selected by another team in the Rule 5.

17 of Muñoz’s 27 MLB appearances were as a starter, where he battled both issues with the long ball and throwing strikes. Muñoz transitioned into a full-time relief role with the Cardinals last season, where his command continued to be spotty, but he missed a lot more bats.

Muñoz struggles to miss bats with his four-seamer and sinker, something the move to the bullpen has helped him mask.

His upper 80s slurve is a clear plus pitch that overwhelmed Triple-A hitters to the tune of a .360 OPS and 45% chase rate in 2025, and his low 90s cutter performed well from an underlying whiff and chase perspective, but yielded more loud contact than desired due to sporadic command and execution.

There can be a tendency to lean on his curveball too heavily with more disciplined hitters challenging Muñoz to beat them with any other pitch.

It is dominant against both righties and lefties, helping justify the roughly 50% usage, but the Astros may have some optimism that they can unlock more out of Muñoz as he creates a unique look with how hard he can throw his breaking balls from an angle that can be difficult for hitters to pick up.

Guardians: Peyton Pallette, RHP, White Sox

Confidence: 60%

It was a head-scratcher that the White Sox did not protect Pallette, given their open 40-man spots, and the Guardians capitalized.

The former second-rounder moved to the bullpen in 2025, and it proved plenty beneficial last season, as he turned in a 4.06 ERA with a 3.43 FIP and 32.5% strikeout rate. Over his final 30 appearances at the Triple-A level, Pallette pitched to a 2.78 ERA with an impressive 23.2% K-BB rate.

The fastball sat in the mid-90s, generating more whiff than his pitch data would suggest thanks to his whippy arm action and a low angle, allowing it to play well in the top half of the zone. He has a trio of intriguing secondaries with the slider and changeup really coming along to potentially leapfrog his curveball, which used to be his preferred secondary.

Opponents hit a combined .188 with a chase rate north of 30% and a swinging strike rate of 24% against his slider and changeup. Pallette at least looks the part of a middle reliever who is capable of going multiple innings.

Blue Jays: Spencer Miles, RHP, Giants

Confidence: 20%

Miles may be one of the more unique Rule 5 stories we have seen in a while. He was a fourth-round pick by the Giants out of Missouri in 2022, but has pitched just 14 2/3 innings since, after undergoing back surgery followed by Tommy John surgery.

Miles made six appearances in the Arizona Fall League, where he showcased an interesting pitch mix that included a four-seamer and sinker that sat in the mid-90s, a hard cutter, and a two-plane curveball. He has the stuff to be a big league arm, but it’s a heck of a leap considering the fact that Miles has never pitched above Low-A.

Yankees: Cade Winquest, RHP, Cardinals

Confidence: 55%

An eighth-rounder in the 2022 draft out of UT-Arlington, Winquest eased into pro ball in a swingman role with Low-A Palm Beach in 2023 before only throwing 29 innings in 2024 due to injury. He was fully unleashed as a starter in 2025 and enjoyed his best year as a pro, pitching to a 3.99 ERA in 106 innings between High-A and Double-A.

His fastball averaged 95.5 MPH with his two-plane curveball in the upper 70s, flashing plus and a low 80s slider that looks like a quality third pitch. What makes Winquest even more interesting as the Yankees have had plenty of success maximizing bullpen arms, and he is a guy who has yet to make the move to full time reliever.

It wouldn’t be far-fetched for his fastball velocity to bump closer to the upper 90s with the rest of his arsenal ticking up as well to potentially generate more whiffs than his respectable 24% strikeout rate as a starter in 2025.

Phillies: Zach McCambley, RHP, Marlins

Confidence: 60%

A third-round pick by the Marlins in 2020, McCambley has always turned heads with his ability to spin a wipeout slider, but was mostly just a two-pitch guy until 2025… and the breakout followed.

McCambley tweaked his bigger sweeper to have more horizontal and a bit less vert, upping the strike rate to the highest of his career while holding opponents to a .120 batting average against it with a 40% usage rate.

The addition of a gyro slider was a game-changer. At 89-91 MPH with late bite, the slider became his go-to pitch against lefties and a good bridge between the sweeper and fastball, giving him a distinct third velocity band.

The new offering also allowed McCambley to cut down on his fastball usage some. His tendency to cut his fastball could cause it to flatten out at times and get hit hard, but now, just mixing it in around 25% of the time with a release that is hard to differentiate from his other two breaking balls and much-improved command, McCambley’s fastball was the most effective it has been in his career.

The cumulative results of these gains were a 2.90 ERA between Double-A and Triple-A with a career best 33% strikeout rate and 23% K-BB rate.

White Sox: Alexander Alberto, RHP, Rays

Confidence: 30%

Neither White Sox selection has pitched above High-A, but they are not alike at all. Alberto throws one pitch nearly 80% of the time, but that pitch happens to be a cutter that averaged 98 MPH in 2025.

He is tall and lanky at 6-foot-8, 210 pounds and turned in an impressive season, mostly working in the 8th and 9th innings, pitching to a 2.59 ERA and 30.6% strikeout rate. The cutter tends to miss under barrels, helping Alberto register a 55% ground ball rate in 2025.

His slurvy breaking ball flashes as a decent complementary pitch, but his low usage and inconsistent command of it make it difficult to project. The White Sox are hoping that Alberto’s upper-90s cutter will continue to perform at the highest level the way that it did at High-A, but if it doesn’t, there’s not much of a parachute for the 24-year-old.