2025 MLB Wild Card Betting Preview

The Tigers have been the superior offense this year, as the Guardians posted the lowest batting average ever for a playoff team. The edge against righties isn’t much, as the Tigers have posted a 98 wRC+ against righties compared to the Guardians at 90. Both are in the bottom half of the league. The Guardians have struggled against lefties (81 wRC+) while the Tigers have been the second-best team in baseball (114 wRC+), but the Guardians don’t have any left-handed starters.

The Tigers have the best left-handed starter in baseball, Tarik Skubal, going in game one. Skubal has pitched to a 0.64 ERA over 28 innings against Cleveland this season; utter dominance. However, Cleveland has won two of his four starts, including the last two of the season. That’s where the edge ends in the rotation, as Tanner Bibee, Joey Cantillo, Slade Cecconi, and Parker Messick are all throwing better right now than Jack Flaherty and Casey Mize. Even if the Guardians lose game one (+145 underdogs), they will be favorites in games two and three.

The bullpen edge is heavily in favor of Cleveland after posting the best FIP of any bullpen in baseball this season. The Tigers rank 24th; chaos no longer. When Skubal isn’t pitching, Cleveland will own all the advantages on the mound.

The Guardians have a slightly above-average defense this season by OAA, while the Tigers are slightly below average. Defense, especially in the playoffs, is crucial, as one mistake can cost a team the season. Neither team makes a statement in this category, but the edge does go to Cleveland.

Both the Tigers and Guardians are great base-running teams, but Detroit ranks sixth in Baserunning Runs while the Guardians rank 11th. The Tigers have generated nine runs this season by taking the extra base, the second most in Major League Baseball.

The Guardians are 8-5 against the Tigers this season; however, the Tigers are 4-2 in Cleveland, highlighted by a three-game sweep in early July. Since that sweep, the Guardians have won five of the last six games against Detroit.

Overall Outlook

Tarik Skubal is a difference maker. Although he suffered an injury scare at the end of the season, his performance looked phenomenal once he returned. He was his usual self in the playoffs last year, pitching to a 2.37 ERA over 19 innings. It’s so hard to beat him three times in a row, no matter the ballpark. I think Cleveland will win the series in the end, but I wouldn’t want to bet on this series at the current price.

Lean: Cleveland to Win Series (-110), Over 2.5 Games (-110) 

Boston Red Sox vs New York Yankees

Odds to Win Series: Red Sox (+145), Yankees (-175)

The Yankees have the best offense in baseball this season. They have a 121 wRC+ against left-handed pitchers this season, the best mark of any team. They have a 118 wRC+ against righties, tied for the best in baseball. The Red Sox are above average against both righties and lefties, but since losing Roman Anthony, they’ve taken a tumble. It’s still an above-average offense, but it’s not nearly as strong as New York’s.

The Red Sox have the best starting pitcher in this series: Garrett Crochet. He led MLB in strikeouts (cash +1100, let’s go) and will likely finish second to Tarik Skubal in AL Cy Young voting. He’s made four starts against the Yankees, and the Red Sox have won all four, pitching to a 3.29 ERA in 27.1 innings with 39 strikeouts. Fried has been even better against the Red Sox, even though the Yankees have only won one of his three starts—a 1.96 ERA over 18.1 innings.

Lucas Giolito and Luis Gil won’t be on the wild card roster, as both starters are dealing with elbow injuries. The Yankees are better set up in this scenario, as Gil would have been the likely fourth starter while Giolito was projected to throw game two. If the series goes the distance, the Red Sox will either go with a bullpen game or give the ball to Kyle Harrison or Connelly Early, two young lefties.

The bullpen advantage heavily leans towards the Red Sox after Boston posted the fourth-best FIP of any team. The Yankees sat in 18th, and it’s the most evident weakness on the team. The Red Sox have the best closer in MLB this year, Aroldis Chapman, to distance themselves even further. Once the starters exit, the Red Sox hold the advantage on the mound in the later innings.

The Red Sox also have a clear edge on defense. The Red Sox were a top ten defensive team this year, while the Yankees just escaped the bottom ten, ranking 19th in OAA. Don’t remind Yankee fans of what happened last year.

The Red Sox are an excellent base-running team, while the Yankees are below average. The Red Sox rank seventh while the Yankees rank 19th. In terms of runs scored by taking the extra base, the Yankees rank 28th while the Red Sox rank fifth. On the bases, the Red Sox run circles around them.

The Red Sox went 9-4 against the Yankees this season, including a 5-2 record in New York, highlighted by winning three of four games against the Yankees at the end of August. The Yankees have had issues playing against the Red Sox in October, losing in both 2004, 2018, and 2021.

Overall Outlook

The Yankees are the better team, especially with the Red Sox losing Roman Anthony and Lucas Giolito. However, the better team doesn’t always win, and the Red Sox have had the Yankees’ number all season long. I have a hard time believing that Garrett Crochet wins all five of his starts against the Yankees this season, and Max Fried has been the better pitcher. I think the Yankees sweep this series or the Red Sox win in three. Value lies with the Red Sox, but I ultimately think the Yankees will come out on top.

Leans: Red Sox (+145) for the value, but not worth a wager. 

San Diego Padres vs Chicago Cubs

Odds to Win Series: Padres (+105), Cubs (-125)

The Cubs’ offense has been a rollercoaster this year, as they were the third-best offense in baseball for the first half of the season, and an average offense in the second half. Kyle Tucker is back and healthy, but his .685 OPS in 64 career playoff games is a concern. Pete Crow Armstrong was an MVP candidate in the first half and a liability at the plate in the second half. Those two are so important if the Cubs want to make a run here, and it’s impossible to know what they will do.

Fernando Tatis Jr has posted an OPS over 1.300 in his 13 playoff games, but it’s not a huge sample. The Padres are the sixth-best offense by wRC+ in the second half, but the numbers aren’t awe-inspiring. The Cubs’ strong edge against lefties is nullified by the fact that San Diego doesn’t have any left-handed starters and only two lefties in the bullpen.

The starting pitching edge tips towards the Padres only because of Cade Horton’s injury, which will keep him out of the Wild Card round. Matthew Boyd has faded a bit in the second half, and Shota Imanaga has a home run issue. However, the Padres haven’t been consistent either, as Michael King has posted a 5.74 ERA in September, and Dylan Cease has been inconsistent all season. Nick Pivetta has been their saving grace this season and is probably the best starter right now on either side.

The most significant edge is in the bullpen, where AJ Preller assembled the Avengers. The Cubs have a mediocre bullpen, while the Padres have the best in baseball, even without Jason Adam.

Baserunning and defense heavily lean towards the Cubs. The Padres are mediocre on the bases and on defense, while the Cubs are elite on both sides.

The Cubs beat the Padres in a three-game set in Chicago, and the Padres did the same in San Diego. The Padres have struggled as a road team this year, with a 38-43 record.

Overall Outlook

I think this line should be closer to what we see between Cleveland and Detroit. I believe the Padres are better suited for a short playoff series, given their strong bullpen and the improvement of their offense since the addition of Ramon Laureano, Ryan O’Hearn, and Freddy Fermin at the trade deadline. Losing Cade Horton really hurts, and considering the bullpen issues for Chicago, it’ll be tough to overcome those. My eyes are squarely on PCA and Kyle Tucker; if they come out hot, the Cubs can overwhelm San Diego on offense. Ultimately, I have no reason to believe they will break out here, so the Padres are my strongest recommendation from a series price perspective, but not quite enough value to jump on it.

Lean: Padres to win Series (+105)

Cincinnati Reds vs Los Angeles Dodgers

Odds to Win Series: Reds (+200), Dodgers (-250)

When I first posted the odds on X, the most feedback I got was that the Reds are undervalued. I disagree; the Dodgers should be larger favorites.

While the Dodgers have not had the season we thought when BetMGM posted a 103.5 win total, the roster is still phenomenal. They are the far superior offense against both righties and lefties, and the lineups that Terry Francona continues to push out don’t even tap into what the Reds offense could be. While Will Smith may not be available, I doubt it will appear in this series. The Reds don’t have anyone who can compete with Shohei Ohtani, Mookie Betts, or Freddie Freeman.

The starting pitching is why people like the Reds to upset the Dodgers, potentially. I get it; Hunter Greene, Nick Lodolo, and Andrew Abbott are an excellent trio, but they aren’t as strong as Blake Snell, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, and Shohei Ohtani. We are accustomed to the Dodgers babying their pitchers in the regular season, but in the playoffs, we’ll see them pitch longer. That will quiet bullpen concerns, especially against the Reds’ bottom-half offense.

The Dodgers’ bullpen has been a hot-button issue of late, but the numbers still tilt in favor of LA over Cincinnati. The Reds’ bullpen has a 4.35 FIP this season, ranking 25th. The Dodgers’ biggest weakness is the bullpen, and they rank 17th in FIP. Treinen and Scott have been issues for LA, but if they can just be serviceable, LA will hold a clear advantage late.

The Dodgers have 9 OAA this year, compared to the Reds’ 2, but the Reds did add Ke’Bryan Hayes at the deadline, arguably the best defensive player in the big leagues. We will call this one a wash, even though the Dodgers’ numbers are better this season.

Both the Reds and Dodgers are top ten base-running teams, ranking right next to each other in Baserunning runs. The Reds have scored more runs this year by taking the extra base, putting up six compared to the Dodgers with one. The Reds hold a slight advantage here; the only one they have.

The Dodgers are 5-1 against the Reds this season, including a three-game sweep at home at the end of August. It will be tough sledding for the Reds to even grab one win in this short series.

Overall Outlook

The Dodgers will likely sweep this series. They own substantial advantages on offense, and while the Reds have a very strong rotation, the Dodgers are still better in that area. The Reds are 38-43 on the road while the Dodgers are 52-29 and know what it takes to win in October. The Reds are inexperienced and walking into a hostile environment.

Hunter Greene grew up in Los Angeles, so I wouldn’t be surprised if he comes out looking as good as any pitcher alive. However, Snell is a proven postseason performer, and the Reds are the fourth-worst offense against lefties this season. The Dodgers likely win game one, and then good luck with Yamamoto in game two.

In terms of value, I have the Dodgers winning this series 75% of the time, which is -300. In terms of value, I think the Dodgers have the most, but I’m not interested in laying that price. I would recommend looking into the Dodgers’ sweep lines if you want to bet this series price.

I added the Dodgers to win the World Series. The Bat X projects them as a winner 23.3% of the time (implied line of +330). I think we are witnessing a dynasty, and when it’s all said and done, the Dodgers come out on top.

Leans: Dodgers to win Series (-250)

BET: Dodgers to Win World Series (+550) Risk 1 Unit