2026-27 Player Option/Opt-Out Preview: September Edition

At the end of each season, certain players will have to decide whether to stick with their current contracts or become free agents. These contract provisions are sometimes referred to as opt-outs and sometimes as player options. Despite the different terminology, they are effectively the same, with the player being the one making the call.

Back in April and in June, MLBTR looked at the 13 players who have a decision to make at the end of the campaign. That number is now down to 11, as explained below. At this point, each player only has a handful of games to sway their decision, unless their club makes the playoffs. Let’s take a look at the individuals who will have to make those choices.

Players are listed in alphabetical order. Ages in parentheses are for the 2027 season.

• José Berríos (33): can opt out of remaining two years, $48MM

This one’s easy. Berríos required Tommy John surgery in May. He’ll be rehabbing into the middle of the 2027 season, at least. Even before that, his performance had declined a bit. He posted a 4.17 earned run average with a 19.8% strikeout rate in 2025 and the Blue Jays moved him to the bullpen late in that season. There’s no way he’s walking away from this money.

• Bo Bichette (29): can opt out of remaining two years, $84MM, taking a $5MM buyout

This is the most interesting decision on this list. The case against opting out is straightforward enough. Bichette is not having a good season overall. He has a .265/.317/.399 batting line, which translates to a wRC+ of 99, or 1% worse than league average. Why walk away from a $42MM salary next year? He can also opt out in the 2027-28 offseason, so he could just wait another year and think about it again, avoiding the hassle of the lockout.

There are counterarguments, however. Bichette’s struggles are mostly due to a nightmare start, as he hit .219/.275/.308 through the end of May. From the start of June to the present, he has a .298/.346/.464 line and 124 wRC+. Those numbers are pretty close to his career stats, as he has a .290/.333/.458 line and 118 wRC+ on the whole. In other words, he has been the same old Bichette for months now.

What could work in Bichette’s favor is a really weak class of free agent hitters. It was soft to begin with, but Jazz Chisholm Jr., Ian Happ, Trent Grisham, Gleyber Torres, Daulton Varsho and Taylor Ward are having down years. Randy Arozarena, Seiya Suzuki, Brandon Lowe and Ty France are having good years but each will be 32 years old next season, three years older than Bichette. Ryan Jeffers only fits on teams needing catching help. Luis Arraez is a good but limited player. Jake Bauers is having a great season but a spotty overall track record.

If Bichette were out there, he would arguably be the most attractive free agent position player available. The Phillies reportedly made him a seven-year offer worth $190MM to $200MM last offseason. Perhaps Bichette’s down year would prevent him from getting a similar offer this time but his strong finish and the weak market could conspire to get him back into that range. The Mets are going to miss the playoffs so Bichette can spend October weighing his options.

• Corbin Burnes (32): can opt out of remaining four years and $140MM ($44MM deferred)

At this point, it’s really hard to see Burnes opting out. Even though he has been an ace, $140MM is a lot to walk away from, especially since Tommy John surgery wiped out most of his 2025 and 2026 seasons. Even guys with spotty health histories can get paid. Jacob deGrom, Blake Snell and Carlos Rodón certainly had injury issues but they still signed deals with guarantees of $185MM, $182MM and $162MM, respectively.

But no one in that trio was this close to an extended absence. Burnes just got back a few days ago and isn’t even fully stretched out yet. He logged three innings in his first appearances of the season on Tuesday. Unless the Diamondbacks make a deep postseason run, he won’t be able to pitch much before the offseason arrives. Even if the Snakes do go all the way to the World Series, Burnes won’t throw more than a few dozen innings this year.

On top of that, there are the off-field considerations. Burnes has a house in Arizona and spends a lot of time there with his family. That seemingly led to him turning down larger offers to play elsewhere. Even if he felt there was a path to getting slightly more than his remaining guarantee, he would probably prefer to stay.

• Kyle Freeland (34): $17MM player option for 2027 if 170 innings pitched in 2026

This one is now off the table. Freeland is currently on the injured list, his third IL stint of the year. He has started a rehab assignment and could rejoin the Rockies before the season is over. However, his innings tally is at 124 1/3, so he won’t be able to get to 170 this year. He will head to free agency for the first time in his career. He is a local boy and franchise favorite, so perhaps he will be back, but surely on a deal well south of $17MM. He has a 4.71 ERA in his career and a 6.37 ERA in 2026.

• Ryan Helsley (32): $14MM player option

Helsley is almost certainly going to pick up this player option. He signed a two-year, $28MM deal with the Orioles, with both sides hoping for a bounceback campaign. He had once been a dominant closer but had a down year in 2025. If he returned to form, he would have gone back to the open market with more earning power. In that scenario, the O’s would get a great stopgap for Félix Bautista’s expected absence and then the money would be off the books for 2027.

It hasn’t played out that way. Helsley has spent a decent chunk of the season on the injured list due to elbow issues. His last appearance was in June. He has only given Baltimore 15 1/3 innings with a 4.11 ERA. His strikeout and ground ball numbers were good in that time but he also gave out a huge number of walks. He could still return before the end of the season but won’t be able to move those numbers too much. Maybe a dominant postseason run could tip the scales for him but the Orioles are three games back of a playoff spot with barely two weeks to go.

• Clay Holmes (34): $12MM player option

Barring a late-season injury, Holmes is a lock for free agency. The Mets signed him to a three-year, $38MM deal going into 2025. At that point, Holmes had years of experience as a reliever but close to none as a starter. The Mets figured his ground-ball profile could help make the move to the rotation.

It has worked. Since the start of last year, Holmes has logged 251 2/3 innings over 48 appearances with a 3.29 ERA. His 18.4% strikeout rate is a bit below average but he has continued to induce grounders, with a really strong 57.2% clip over the course of this deal. He suffered a fractured fibula on a comebacker this year and missed almost three months, but that didn’t stop the Cubs from acquiring him at the deadline. He has returned from the IL and made six starts since that trade with a 3.51 ERA.

These days, $12MM is back-end, innings eater money. Kyle Gibson signed a $13MM deal with the Cardinals going into 2024 on the heels of a 4.73 ERA season. Charlie Morton got $15MM going into 2025 after putting up a 4.19 ERA. In the most recent offseason, Zach Eflin got $10MM after posting a 5.93 ERA in 2025. Holmes should be able to get a strong multi-year deal even though he’ll be 34 next year. Seth Lugo, another bullpen-to-rotation convert, got $45MM on a three-year deal going into his age-34 campaign.

• Tatsuya Imai (29): can opt out of remaining two years, $36MM* (*2027 salary would increase by $2MM each for 80, 90, 100 innings pitched this year. Imai is currently at 72 2/3.)

Imai’s deal reflected the uncertainty of his profile. In his time in Japan, he had mostly had huge control issues. He reined in the walks in 2024 and 2025 but with important context. Nippon Professional Baseball was playing with a dead ball in those years, with offense down across the league. Per Yakyu Cosmopolitan, Imai felt that the ball had become so deadened that hitters started trying to run up his pitch count by fouling pitches off rather than actually attempting to do damage — so much so that Imai decided to make the move to North America.

Once upon a time, it was felt Imai had strong enough numbers to earn a nine-figure deal. But due to the control concerns, he settled for a three-year, $54MM deal with incentives and multiple opt-outs. That gave him a solid base while also preserving some upside for if he was able to silence the doubters. Instead, the haters have been proven correct (at least so far). Imai has a 5.20 ERA on the year. His 28% strikeout rate is quite good but he has walked 15.4% of batters faced. That’s easily the highest walk rate among pitchers with at least 70 innings pitched this year. Luinder Avila is second on the list at 13.6%.

The shaky results have pushed Imai to the bullpen since the start of August. He has a decent 2.57 ERA since then but with a 16.7% walk rate. Even if he does find sustained success as a reliever for another few weeks and through the playoffs, only well-established relievers have topped $36MM in free agency. Imai surely doesn’t have enough time to erase the concerns in his profile, even if the Astros go on a lengthy playoff run.

• Michael King (32): can opt out of remaining two years, $58MM for a $5MM buyout

King has one of the few borderline calls of this group. Not so long ago, he seemed to be trending to a healthy nine-figure deal. But last year, he was slowed by some injuries. A pinched nerve in his shoulder cost him about three months. He returned from the IL in August but was then put right back on the shelf due to a left knee issue. He was reinstated in September but wasn’t in top form.

The Padres nonetheless gave him a three-year, $75MM deal with a pair of opt-outs. They were hoping that King could put the injuries behind him and get back to his previous level of performance. There was a stretch of August of 2023 through May of 2025 where King was one of the best pitchers in the league, a span that went from the Yankees giving him a rotation audition to his aforementioned injuries. In that span, he pitched 267 2/3 innings with a 2.72 ERA, 28.4% strikeout rate and 8.1% walk rate.

This year, King has been healthy but not quite as dominant. He has avoided the IL and made 29 starts so far, racking up 168 innings. His 3.00 ERA looks good but he’s getting a lot of help from a .251 batting average on balls in play and 82.1% strand rate. His 21% strikeout rate is a big drop from his previous work. King’s 4.17 FIP and 4.43 SIERA are skeptical of his run prevention on the year.

That might still be enough to test the open market. Since he can collect a $5MM buyout, King would be leaving $53MM on the table. Even if teams view him as more of a mid-rotation guy than a borderline ace, that’s an attainable number. In recent years, Sean Manaea, Taijuan Walker, Marcus Stroman, Jameson Taillon, Luis Severino, Chris Bassitt, Jon Gray and Nick Pivetta have earned multi-year deals with guarantees in the $54-75MM range.

Getting to nine figures might be off the table, as that tier has usually been for guys at a higher level than King has shown this year. Kevin Gausman got to $110MM after posting a 2.81 ERA with a 29.3% strikeout rate. Robbie Ray got $115MM on the heels of a Cy Young win, as he had a 2.84 ERA and 32.1% strikeout rate in his walk year. King has been at that level before but not this season. He at least has some theoretical upside and his velocity is in line with recent seasons, so an opt-out feels likely, but he might not have too much to gain. A stumble down the stretch could perhaps tip the scales.

• Yuki Matsui (31): can opt out of remaining two years, $13.5MM

Matsui signed a five-year, $28MM deal with the Padres going into 2024. That pact gave him the chance to opt out after 2026 if he didn’t have Tommy John surgery or another major injury which caused him to spend 130 consecutive days on the IL. There have been no major injury issues, so that opt-out is still on the table.

In terms of the results, they’ve been more good than great. Matsui tossed just over 60 innings in both 2024 and 2025, with an ERA a bit under 4.00 in both seasons. He had decent strikeout rates but also walked more batters than average.

Matsui’s ERA in 2026 is way down at 2.05, but that’s mostly a mirage. His 26.7% strikeout rate is a few ticks better than par but he’s giving out walks at an awful 13.8% clip. The run prevention is mostly due to a .202 batting average on balls in play and 92.7% strand rate, both very fluky figures. His 4.31 FIP and 4.13 SIERA both suggest he’s due for significant regression.

Perhaps he will be tempted to return to the open market to try to capitalize on the low ERA, but teams will be skeptical. What also might impact things is that he will have the ability to opt out again next year. He could return to the Padres for 2027, avoid the lockout winter and get a look at the new CBA before deciding about whether or not to trigger his 2028 player option.

• Emilio Pagán (36): $10MM player option

Pagán’s career has been up-and-down lately. Most of the time, he has racked up strikeouts but also been susceptible to the long ball. His ERA was between 4.43 and 4.83 from 2020 to 2022, with about 15% of his fly balls clearing the fence. In 2023, his home-run-to-fly-ball ratio dropped to a career low of 5.3%, helping him post a 2.99 ERA.

It was then that the Reds signed him to a two-year deal with an opt-out. It wasn’t a shock that the homer-prone pitcher moving to a homer-happy stadium led to a regression in the home run department. Pagan’s ERA climbed to 4.50 in 2024 and he declined to opt out of the second year of his deal. In 2025, he was great. The homers ticked down slightly and he posted a 2.88 ERA. He took over the closer’s job in the process and racked up 32 saves.

The Reds gave him another two-year deal with an opt-out, this one paying him $10MM in each season. Pagán’s 2026 season has been inconsistent. He struggled out the gate and missed almost two months due to a hamstring strain. He’s been great since he came back. On the whole, he has a 3.93 ERA, but that breaks down as a 6.43 ERA before the IL stint and a 2.38 ERA after. Since coming back, he has a 28.9% strikeout rate and 4.4% walk rate in 22 2/3 innings.

This one feels like a coin flip. It’s hard for a reliever to get a multi-year deal at this age, so there’s not a ton of upside in returning to free agency. But there’s also not much downside, as he would surely be able to get something in range of $10MM, even if it’s just a one-year deal. Pagán does have momentum on his side with his strong results in recent weeks.

• Wandy Peralta (35): $4.45MM player option

It was a bit of a surprise when the Padres gave Peralta four years and $16.5MM going into the 2024 season. It wasn’t a massive amount of money but teams don’t usually make these commitments to middle relievers. Each year of the deal was also a player option, another surprising element as those have historically been given more to star players.

Peralta has continually posted decent results without taking any of his opt-out opportunities. This is his third straight year with an ERA in the 3.00 to 4.00 range. His strikeout rates are always modest but he gets opponents to hit the ball into the ground. This one could go either way. If Peralta were a free agent, he’d probably get something like $4.45MM. Given his age and results, he probably can’t get another multi-year deal. He could explore the open market but he might prefer to just take the bird in the hand and avoid the headache of being a free agent during the lockout.

• Nick Pivetta (34): opt-out negated by injury

This one is now off the table. Previously, on Pivetta’s four-year, $55MM deal with the Padres, the last two years were player options. However, there was an injury provision in there for the Padres. If Pivetta missed 130 or more consecutive days in 2025 or 2026 due to a specified injury or surgery, the 2027 season would become a $14MM club option. A flexor strain put Pivetta on the IL in April of this year and he wasn’t able to come back until September. That was more than 130 days, so the Friars are now the ones in control of the contract.

• Luis Severino (33): $22MM player option

This one should be a lock. Severino only made 12 starts this year with a 4.16 ERA before a shoulder strain put him on the IL in May. He hasn’t returned and there hasn’t been any indication he will make an appearance before the season is done.

He also had a middling 2025 season, with a 4.54 ERA. There was some attention paid to his home/road splits, as the A’s have been playing in a minor league park and Severino had a 6.01 ERA in that facility, compared to a 3.02 ERA on the road. However, blaming the park is fairly simplistic. That road ERA was pretty fluky. His 17% strikeout rate in away games was subpar, while his .249 BABIP was on the fortunate side.

In his small sample of work in 2026, Severino’s 24% strikeout rate was a nice jump from his 17.6% rate in 2025, but his walk rate also climbed from 7.1% to 11.4%. After some uninspiring results and a major injury, he should take the $22MM. The only reason for doubt is that Severino has publicly complained about the quality of the amenities at the temporary home of the A’s. Even though his stock is down, he might prefer to just leave and not have to spend another year there. That wouldn’t be the best financial decision but only he knows his priorities.