2026 Fantasy Baseball ADP Guide: Draft Strategy (1-50)

Pete Crow-Armstrong – Rolling the Dice at #30

Pete Crow-Armstrong has all of the tools to be a top-flight fantasy player and showed that in 2025. The blend of power and speed is always an attractive combination, and the Cubs’ improved lineup should help with run production opportunities.

At only 23 years old, Crow-Armstrong has plenty of room to grow and develop into a more complete player.

However, a 41.7% chase rate and 28.9% whiff rate are massive red flags for a top 30 player. He’s still going to hit for power and steal enough bases to avoid his value tanking, but there’s an avenue where his value is not top 50, as well.

We saw that on display in the second half, where Crow-Armstrong posted a lousy .634 OPS across 62 games. Granted, this was mostly due to a disastrous August, but a player with that much swing and miss and a lack of plate discipline is susceptible to bad stretches.

I’d still draft Crow-Armstrong, but personally, I’d wait a little longer.

Zach Neto – A Fast Riser

As a Neto fan myself, I have often said he did not get the type of love and respect his game deserves.

However, I did not expect him to get the amount of respect that pushes him just outside of the top 30. He is an ascending player, which should help his value, but in this range, it comes at a risk.

Neto has steadily improved in each of his first two full seasons and launched 26 home runs in only 128 games in 2025. Pair that with 30 stolen base potential, and you can see why he’s climbing up the draft board. The concern is similar to PCA’s – swing and miss is a problem.

A 29% whiff rate and only 6% walk rate puts a lot of pressure on his bat to produce.

Keep in mind, we are talking about a top 35 player here. Of course, I’d still draft him and see the upside, but this range is simply too rich for me.

The Angels have made some moves I like, but still are a team that might struggle to produce runs. Neto had 26 home runs, but only 62 RBI and 82 runs scored. There are not enough ancillary ways to add value outside of power and speed, which gives me hesitation for a pick this high.

Mason Miller – San Diego’s Strikeout Artist

Where you draft relief pitchers is going to vary drastically depending on the type of league you are in. Because of this, it’s hard to really say if Miller’s ADP is worth it or not.

The reason I want to highlight him is that he’s currently ranked third behind Edwin Diaz and Andres Munoz, who land in the two spots before him.

Edwin Diaz is the clear number one option for obvious reasons, but I would take Miller right behind him. The Padres have a good team and a great bullpen, which should give Miller a ton of opportunities to rack up saves. The Padres did use Miller on more than one occasion, at times that will help him rack up more stats throughout the year.

By now, you know the stuff Miller has to offer. A 37% whiff rate on his 100+ mph fastball, a 54% whiff rate on the slider, and 62% whiff rate on his changeup.

A lethal combination that rivals anyone in the game. The walks went in the wrong direction last season, but I expect him to see his control sharpened in 2026.

Jacob deGrom – Crossing Your Fingers and Hoping for Health

The fact that deGrom can miss as much time as he has and come back to a 2.97 ERA across 30 starts, at age 37, speaks volumes to the talent in his arm.

We are still talking about one of the best pitchers in the game, but for how much longer?

DeGrom saw his strikeouts dip below 10 K/9 for the first time since 2016. As he continues to age, I’m sure his pitch mix will adjust, but his fastball is not trending in a positive direction. Luckily, the slider and changeup still produce at a 40% whiff rate.

You know exactly why I brought up deGrom. No one has ever questioned his talent, only his health. Perhaps I’m being too risk-averse, but I will not draft a pitcher with an injury track record like deGrom’s who turns 38 during the season. Not this high. The variations of outcomes are simply too drastic to use a top 50 pick on, in my opinion.

Matt Olson – A Great Value at 50

Matt Olson has had some up-and-down seasons throughout his career, but has been pretty steady since joining the Braves. He has now played in every game over the past four seasons, which carries value that people often underrate.

No, I don’t think we will get another 50+ home run season, but back-to-back 29 home run seasons give you a comfortable baseline. He’s going to draw a ton of walks, drive in runs, and the batted ball contact is too good to write off a potential 40 home run season, even if recent history suggests 30 is his new standard.

Depending on your draft in the top 75, Olson could be your high-floor, predictable addition to offset risk elsewhere. You know about what you are going to get, and the floor is still high enough to justify a selection this high. The best-case scenario is much higher than 50 overall, in my opinion.