
Picking late in the first round in fantasy baseball leagues is a classic bad news/good news scenario. The bad news is you have little certainty about who will be available to be the cornerstone of your franchise this season. The good news, though, is that you are among the first teams to have two players.
In this column, we’ll explore the approach I generally take with a late pick in the first round, but I’m specifically going to act as if I own the 12th pick, and thus, the turn on the even/odd rounds. If you own the end pick in the first round, you can create chaos in the draft if you choose — and if others take the bait.
Fantasy Baseball Draft Strategies:Picks 1-4 | Picks 5-8 | Picks 9-12
Obviously, you will have your own ranks of the top 13 players so you know, worst case, who you will get. But in 30 years of drafting, I have seen only one draft go 11-for-11 before getting to the last pick of the round.
So before we talk about our picks and preferences, let’s go over some of my pre-draft guidelines and practices.
There are a few things I do very early in the spring to guide my draft-day decisions. They have been pretty helpful to me, and I recommend you do the same.
We all know there are plenty of pitchers and outfielders, but you should be curious about where and when the second basemen and catchers, for example, are going. I joined a league this year that is married to the concept of two starting catchers, so I have to slightly adjust my thinking. If you are a tier person, know the cutoffs, but just know where positions are grouped and where younger, higher-ceiling talent lives later in the draft.
At the end of 10 rounds, what positions will you have rostered? For me, generally, I want three starters, one closer, two OF, and one each at 1B, SS, 3B, and C. I can easily swap a C for another closer if a good one falls a bit. And if Ketel Marte is available in a spot where I thought he’d be gone, I will jump for him. But generally, I’m not concerned with the weaker positions.
In most drafts, pitchers are going earlier than before, but I know there will be good or forgotten arms around and after 100, along with more OF choices. Still, I like to get top ones early.
Maybe you’re a tier person, but for me, I always ask myself, “Who is the last starting pitcher I would take as my ace?” I try to do that with most positions and familiarize myself with their ADP. Keeping tabs on how far away those players are is critical to meeting standards at your positions.
Print the ADP chart for your platform, comb through each round, and mark the players you would like on your team. It could be a late young catcher you think will be a sleeper. It could be starters you like at affordable draft slots. Whomever you like — mark them, highlight them, know them on that ADP sheet.
Make sure to run the ADPs for the most recent 7- or 14-day stretch close to your draft to get a more accurate read on where those players are being drafted, and call their name a round early if you have to have them.
Here we go, let’s draft.
So someone you didn’t expect is going to fall to you. Even if your 11th player comes back, you should get at least a small prize. While you are content taking players 12 and 13 on your list, if you have multiple players fall to you, think about the package. Every time you pick, you will pick two players, and you’ll have had 22 other picks to think about who those picks will be.
I want Skenes or Skubal to fall, but assuming they don’t, I won’t take a pitcher, as I think all others don’t have the talent to be worth the risk. With so many good bats available, I’ll be taking Corbin Carroll and Fernando Tatis Jr. Unless someone falls.
Roster So Far: 2 OF
If I had taken a starter with one of the first two picks, I love taking two top closers here. If I got Skenes, I would take Edwin Díaz and Mason Miller here, assuming they are available. But without a starter, I need to grab an ace. Doing that at 3 and 4 establishes you as bold and might force owners into premature decisions before you later in the draft.
If Hunter Brown is gone, I like Bryan Woo as my ace, and I’ll add Díaz or Miller.
Roster So Far: 2 OF, SP, RP
I’m not targeting anything specific here, but I’m less likely to take another OF. Josh Naylor is the player I hope falls to me, but let’s assume he does not. The choice here is easy. Geraldo Perdomo will be a pick, but because some leagues start keepers in Round 6, I will take him second and will take either Joe Ryan or George Kirby with my fifth pick.
I didn’t love the offense here, though if I had just one OF, I would have jumped at Jackson Merrill.
Roster So Far: 2 OF, 2 SP, RP, SS
Here is where you need to start really shaping the roster. According to ADP, I might get Vinnie Pasquantino if he falls a spot or two, but if not, I’m happy getting Tyler Soderstrom. If I want to reach 10-15 spots for a 3B, Eugenio Suárez or Alex Bregman can be had.
Instead, I reach a bit for Oneil Cruz simply because I think he’s the best player in the round, and I have plenty of time.
Roster So Far: 3 OF, 2 SP, RP, SS, 1B
Here I’m hoping Spencer Strider falls to me. I just think he’s worth the risk. If he doesn’t, I’ll be happy with Brandon Woodruff or Tyler Glasnow as my third starter. I’m going to punt on 3B and take Kyle Stowers because I think he’ll easily outproduce any 3B I get here.
Roster So Far: 4 OF, 3 SP, RP, SS, 1B
This point in the draft is a good time to double-check your plans. I know I’ve drafted more OF than I planned and still need a 3B and 2B. So the infield and bullpen should be priorities here. But here is where I care much less about ADP. I have to fill roster spots, and I’ll reach for the guys who I think do it better than others and take advantage of those who might fall to me to fit those needs.
When I see what is available here, it is easy, though my offense won’t be happy. Zack Wheeler and Jeff Hoffman make my staff much deeper while providing me a solid second closer at this point in the draft.
Waiting for the 13th round, I see 2B Brandon Lowe and 3B Isaac Paredes here. I’ll take Lowe here and hope he likes Philly cheesesteaks.
Roster So Far: 4 OF, 3 SP, 2 RP, SS, 1B, 2B
Assuming Lowe and Paredes did make it to this spot in the draft, I’ll consider Paredes here, but his inconsistency in recent years worries me. I have another option looking forward, so I’ll reach down a few spots for one of those players I tagged as someone I wanted and I’ll take SS Colson Montgomery and slot him at MI.
According to current ADP — though I’d be surprised if he doesn’t move up during the spring — I see that Munetaka Murakami is available. The “rookie” from Japan has 30-HR power and despite a likely lower batting average, I like him as my 3B, particularly almost 200 picks into the draft.
I’m also looking for starters — I’ve been lax in picking them and I realize this has been a fault of my draft. So as a fourth starter, I will take Gerrit Cole, who is expected back around June 1, and hope he provides at least SP3 numbers in those four months.
Roster So Far: 4 OF, 4 SP*, 2 RP, SS, 1B, 2B, 3B, MI
Here I want to work on starting pitching depth, though I won’t pass up a bargain elsewhere. These four rounds are important.
In the 17th, I like Matthew Boyd and in the back-to-back 18/19 turn I like Shane Baz and Zac Gallen. With that 20th pick (and 21st, since they are back-to-back), I’m looking at youth and take Jac Caglianone and rookie JJ Wetherholt.
Roster So Far: 5 OF, 7 SP, 2 RP, SS, 1B, 2 2B, 3B, MI
I have obvious needs and weaknesses on this team — you will too on your roster. I didn’t do a great job of getting more RP for more saves (or holds if your league uses that stat), and I still don’t have a CI. I’m happy to have backfilled my rotation with the last group.
The risk with picks at or near either end of the draft is that you can go up to 22 picks between turns and your general plan for your next pair of players goes south. But if you know the positional distribution of your platform’s ADP and you identify players you specifically want to roster, you can adjust and exceed your original expectations.
Also, don’t pass up really great sleepers just to bolster your weak positions. My team looks strong in the OF and with starters (though one is out probably for two months), so I have trade chips that could help strengthen the weaker parts of my roster.
You may not like my approach, or the execution of the plan. If you draft in late March, the ADPs here won’t be as realistic, but this column is a snapshot in time.
Mock draft and remember:
Best picks 9-12 in 2026 fantasy baseball drafts?
Fernando Tatis Jr., Kyle Tucker, or Julio Rodríguez if available; prioritize elite five-category hitters.
What is the ideal early second-round strategy from the late first?
Assess falling aces like Tarik Skubal, or continue stacking elite bats if pitching tiers hold.
Should you ignore positional runs drafting late first?
Yes—stick to Best Player Available rather than chasing OF or SS runs.
Is 2B or 3B scarce in 2026 mid-drafts?
Depth exists — Rafael Devers and Brice Turang offer stability without early-round pressure.
How should you build from picks 9-12?
Secure an offensive anchor first, then balance with pitching at the turn.
Where is late-round ADP value in this range?
Josh Naylor and Ceddanne Rafaela profile as category stabilizers at cost.
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