
After two consecutive playoff berths, the postseason is not guaranteed for the Padres by any stretch of the imagination. The Padres’ offense stalled at times this season, which is why, entering the break, the club was last in runs scored.
| Stat | Number | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Runs Scored | 379 | 30th |
| Home Runs | 99 | 22nd |
| OPS | .672 | 30th |
| Whiff% | 25.9 | 19th |
| Hard Hit% | 39.8 | 12th |
| Stat | Number | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Starters’ ERA | 4.78 | 27th |
| Relievers’ ERA | 3.68 | 6th |
| Strikeouts | 778 | 20th |
| Whiff% | 26.0 | 9th |
| Chase% | 29.4 | 20th |
Believe it or not but the Padres’ offense has been able to keep it going thanks to two of the more underrated names in the game.
One was Gavin Sheets, who broke out last year in a platoon role with San Diego. Sheets entered the break with 14 home runs, second-most on the club behind Manny Machado (19). And then there’s Ty France, the 2025 AL Gold Glove winner who found his way back to San Diego this past winter in free agency.
France, originally drafted by San Diego, slashed .267/.325/.490 with 11 home runs and 22 extra-base hits.
However, the real success for the Padres this season has been the pitching staff, which is the primary reason why the club is still in playoff contention.
The Padres have to get Joe Musgrove back, while Nick Pivetta went down with a flexor strain in April and has yet to return. But Michael King, who missed time last year, came back with a vengeance over the first half. A 3.41 ERA, as well as 92 strikeouts over 108 innings with the Padres this season.
And then there’s the bullpen, now led by Mason Miller after Robert Suarez left to join the Braves via free agency. No reliever had a better opponents’ wOBA than Miller (.173), and there’s not much that needs to be stated. With consistent triple-digit heat, coupled with a plus-plus slider, it’s hard to hit him.
What also helps is that the Padres’ bullpen has been able to get the ball to Miller in save situations consistently. The likes of Wandy Peralta, Yuki Matsui, and rookie Bradgley Rodriguez have been among those who’ve pitched well for the Padres this season.
Look, the Padres’ offense has been among the league’s worst this season — and that’s by virtually every metric. But for those scapegoating just Fernando Tatis Jr., it goes much deeper than that.
Granted, this would go down as Tatis Jr.’s worst offensive season since he debuted back in 2019. Tatis Jr. only had five home runs entering the break, and he didn’t pick up his first until May 30. However, Tatis Jr. has been able to get on base, plus steal 23 bases to rank in the top ten.
Jackson Merrill is a curious one. This would mark the second straight time that Merrill’s offensive numbers have declined since that gaudy rookie season in 2024 that earned him a monster extension. This season, through 93 contests, the third-year outfielder slashed .219/.278/.350 with 10 home runs. His dip in OPS ranked among the 10 worst in the league year-to-year.
Xander Bogaerts, like Merrill, also produced subpar numbers. Ramon Laureano, acquired alongside now-Pirate Ryan O’Hearn last summer, only played in 53 contests. And then there’s Nick Castellanos, who slashed .191/.221/.339 over 39 contests before the Padres released him.
It’s also been a rough run for Walker Buehler and Griffin Canning, both of whom sported ERA figures over 5.00. The two were picked up in the offseason via free agency. But it is worth noting that Buehler’s numbers are better than what it looks like, as those are somewhat skewed after three difficult starts before the break.
At 48-48 after 96 games, the Padres are in it. However, San Diego lost a lot of ground over the last week, highlighted by a sweep at the hands of the Cubs in early July, one of the clubs currently in control of a NL Wild Card spot.
That leaves the Padres in a precarious position. Generally speaking, the Padres love to go for it if possible. But with so many assets traded away over the years, the Padres don’t have a ton of bullets to burn in the trade market.
But before anything else, a hot start out of the break would help.
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