2026 PECOTA Projections: Dodgers Lead MLB In Wins

The Los Angeles Dodgers are looking to become MLB’s first three-peat champion in 26 years after signing Kyle Tucker and Edwin Díaz to lucrative contracts during the offseason.

With one of their most talented rosters in recent memory, the 2026 PECOTA projections from Baseball Prospectus unsurprisingly have the Dodgers remaining a juggernaut by posting an MLB-best 104-58 record.

It’s the fourth time in the last seven years that Baseball Prospectus has estimated the Dodgers would win at least 100 games.

Next-closest in the National League are the Atlanta Braves and Chicago Cubs, who PECOTA has finishing with identical 89-73 records.

In the American League, the projection model forecasts the Seattle Mariners to lead the standings with a 94-68 record. That’s six games better than the defending AL-champion Toronto Blue Jays and New York Yankees, who are both projected to go 88-74.

PECOTA also gave the Dodgers a 99.9% chance of making the playoffs in 2026, and within that is a 98.3% probability of winning their 13th NL West title in the last 14 seasons.

Furthermore, the Dodgers have the best odds to win the World Series in 2025 at 20.8%. Behind them are the Mariners (14.2%), Blue Jays (8%), Yankees (6.5%) and Cubs (6.4%).

Last year, PECOTA gave the Dodgers a 100% chance of making the playoffs. They were the only team that Baseball Prospectus projected as a guaranteed lock for the 2025 MLB postseason.

The 2026 PECOTA projections also have the Dodgers leading baseball with 851 runs scored. Their lineup includes three former MVP Award winners in Shohei Ohtani, Mookie Betts, and Freddie Freeman, as well as four All-Stars in Tucker, Will Smith, Max Muncy, and Teoscar Hernández.

On the pitching and defense side, the Dodgers are estimated to allow 649 runs. The club will be a little shorthanded in their starting rotation to begin the year with Blake Snell and Gavin Stone on the injured list, but they still have plenty of talent to get by.

Ohtani is entering his first full season with the Dodgers as a two-way player, and Sasaki is returning to a starting role after ending his rookie campaign in the bullpen. Meanwhile, the addition of Díaz gives the team their first dedicated closer since Kenley Jansen, and Tanner Scott is hoping to have a bounce-back year as well.

Dodgers’ PECOTA projections since 2013