20 X-factors who will determine the MLB playoff races

To say this has been a strange season in the Bronx is an understatement. The Yankees got off to a phenomenal start, and even with some serious struggles at times, they've consistently boasted one of the best records in the American League. Thanks almost entirely to the exploits of two players. Aaron Judge and Juan Soto are both enjoying sensational seasons, but the rest of the New York offense has been a catastrophic weakness. The Bombers are locked in a neck-and-neck race for the AL East crown, and if they're going to finish ahead of Baltimore, they desperately need a third offensive weapon to emerge. This is where Giancarlo Stanton comes in. The powerful right-handed slugger has launched 20 homers in only 313 at-bats this season, but both his batting average and OBP have not been inspiring. That said, he was recently sidelined for a month with a hamstring injury and was sorely missed. Stanton is clearly the most accomplished hitter on the Yankees' roster after Judge and Soto, and the team is desperate for him to get hot over the next six weeks. 

Sticking with the Yankees, if they are going to ultimately win the American League East, they'll unquestionably need their best pitcher, Gerrit Cole, to pitch much better down the stretch. After winning the Cy Young award last season, 2024 has been a frustrating year for the veteran righty. An elbow injury in spring training kept him out for most of the first half, and in the 10 starts he's made since returning, he has not resembled the dominant ace he was a year ago. Cole is currently sporting a 4.15 ERA with a 1.37 WHIP, and for a New York club that has more questions than you'd think based on its record, Cole needs to find consistency in September. 

It's no secret that the Baltimore Orioles possess the most dynamic young core in baseball. From Adley Rutschman, to Gunnar Henderson, to Colton Cowser, to Jordan Westburg and Heston Kjerstad, this team is loaded with young star power. And I haven't even mentioned the consensus number-one prospect in the sport coming into 2024. Infielder Jackson Holliday has had an uneven beginning to his Major League career, but it's important to remember he's only 20 years old. In his first 29 games in the show, Holliday has slashed .183/.227/.356 with five home runs. He's currently playing every day at 2nd base for the O's, and if he can get more comfortable at this level and get hot, Baltimore could potentially run away from the Yankees in the AL East. 

In a rare swap of Major League pieces between two of the best teams in baseball, the Orioles sent outfielder Austin Hays to the Phillies at the trade deadline in exchange for right-handed reliever Seranthony Dominguez, who has quickly taken over as the O's closer. After struggling for much of 2024 in Philly, Dominguez has pitched better in Charm City, turning in a 2.53 ERA with an 0.84 WHIP across his first 11 appearances. Home runs have been his only weakness in an Orioles uniform, as he's already been victimized by three long balls in 10.2 innings. With every game critical coming down the stretch, Baltimore will need Dominguez to be lights out if he continues pitching in the 9th inning. 

The Guardians have been in control of the American League Central for essentially all of 2024, but in the last few weeks, both the Royals and Twins have made strong pushes to catch up. Heading into play on 8/21, Cleveland holds a 3.5-game lead over both of their rivals--far too close for comfort. If the Guardians are going to hold on to win the division, they'll need a strong finish, and as is typically the case in Eastern Ohio, third baseman Jose Ramirez will be the one tasked with leading the charge. The veteran switch-hitter has had a sensational 2024 to date, slashing .275/.331/.534 with 32 homers, 101 RBI, and 27 doubles already. Cleveland will ask him for more of the same over the next six weeks. 

Shortstop Bobby Witt Jr. has developed into everything and more the Royals hoped he'd become when they selected him 2nd overall in 2019. After two very good seasons to begin his Major League career, here in year three, Witt Jr. has blossomed into perhaps the most dynamic all-around player in the sport. Through his first 126 games, the 24-year-old is slashing .352/.401/.618 with 25 home runs, 92 RBI, 37 doubles, 11 triples, and 25 stolen bases. Kansas City is currently in Wild Card position in the American League but have not given up hope of catching the Guardians in the Central. A strong finish from their superstar will go a long way towards helping the Royals secure their first playoff berth since 2015. 

Sticking with the Royals, let's talk about one of Witt Jr.'s teammates, left-hander Cole Ragans. A former first-round pick of the Rangers, Kansas City acquired the young hurler in exchange for reliever Aroldis Chapman at the deadline last summer in a deal that has really accelerated the club's rebuild. Ragans pitched well down the stretch for his new team in 2023, and here in '24 he's emerged as one of the sport's most reliable starting pitchers. Through his first 26 starts, Ragans has worked to a 3.31 ERA with a 1.15 WHIP, while holding opponents to a .220 batting average and striking out 183 hitters in 152.1 innings. He's partnered with Seth Lugo to give Kansas City a really good 1-2 punch atop its rotation, and if he can continue to pitch well the rest of the way there's every reason to expect he could be making postseason starts in October. 

The Twins are in the same boat as the Royals, entering play on 8/21 with an identical 70-56 record. Both clubs are in Wild Card position in the American League, but with the Guardians just 3.5 games ahead, the division is still firmly in play. The Twins have had an up-and-down season that, at many junctures, could have been compromised by injuries, and it's a testament to their fortitude that they're still in the position they are. Speaking of health concerns, as is always the case, injuries remain the only thing holding the Twins' best overall player, Royce Lewis, back. When he's on the field Lewis is a legitimate superstar--he's hit 15 homers and driven in 36 runs in the 48 games he's played in. But two lengthy stints on the injured list in 2024 have dramatically hampered his campaign. Lewis is healthy now, and the Twins desperately need him to stay that way through September--and hopefully October too. 

Staying with the AL Wild Card race, the closest threat to stealing a playoff spot away from either the Royals or Twins is the Red Sox who enter play on 8/21 3.5 games in back of both Kansas City and Minnesota. If the 'Sox are going to be able to make that ground up a big September will be imperative, and the return of their first baseman should help. Left-handed swinging Triston Casas went down in April with rib strain, and missed almost four full months. He finally made his long-awaited return a week ago, and perhaps he can serve as the spark Boston needs to get back in the hunt. 

Heading into 2024 the Dodgers appeared---at least on paper--to be so far above everyone else in their division and were expected to cruise to yet another NL West title. And while Los Angeles has led the West for most of the season, they haven't exactly ran away and hid like most pundits predicted they would. San Diego is currently just three games in back of them, with Arizona right behind them at four back. Both of the Dodgers rivals have positioned themselves to make a run, and Los Angeles understands it needs to finish strong and close the door. Superstar Mookie Betts missing two months with a broken hand certainly did not help, and with the veteran returning last week, LA hopes that it will be able to put the West to bed sooner rather than later. 

Young Jackson Merrill was unanimously considered one of baseball's best prospects seemingly from the day the Padres drafted him 27th overall in 2021. It took the Baltimore, MD native three years to navigate his way through the San Diego system, but now that he's here, he's clearly here to stay. Merrill has slashed .289/.320/.484 as a rookie with 17 home runs, 69 RBI, 21 doubles, six triples, and 13 stolen bases. He's become a critical component on one of baseball's hottest teams and is a big reason why the Padres are comfortable in a Wild Card position and threatening the Dodgers in the NL West. 

The Padres were one of the game's most aggressive teams at this summer's trade deadline, and the moves they made- particularly in the bullpen- have helped catapult them in the playoff race during the last month. The Padres now sit comfortably in the Wild Card standings, and at this point, it would be stunning if they aren't playing in October. But their furious surge has them thinking even bigger than that. San Diego is well within striking distance of catching the Dodgers in the West, and to do so they'll need a massive finish from their superstar third baseman, Manny Machado. By his own standards, 2024 has been a down year for the veteran, as he's slashed .269/.319/.450 to date. He has hit 20 homers and driven in 73 runs, but he clearly expects even more from himself. If Machado can catch fire in September, the Dodgers could legitimately be in trouble. 

Just like the Padres, the Diamondbacks have been on an absolute tear since the trade deadline. Like San Diego, Arizona has distanced itself from the rest of the NL Wild Card hopefuls and now have their sights set on taking home the NL West crown. With so much going right for the Diamondbacks recently, the struggles of their ace starting pitcher, Zac Gallen, have gone largely unnoticed. In three starts in August, Gallen has pitched to an ugly 5.51 ERA in 16.1 innings. If Arizona is going to continue its hot streak and perhaps even try to overtake the Dodgers and Padres in the West, they'll simply need him to be better than that. 

Last year, Diamondbacks outfielder Corbin Carroll had one of the best rookie campaigns in recent memory and easily won the NL Rookie of the Year award. Unfortunately, for the 24-year-old, this season has not been nearly as kind to him. To date, Carroll has slashed just .221/.310/.397. He's still contributed 14 home runs, 51 RBI, 16 doubles, 11 triples, and 21 stolen bases so it's unfair to say he hasn't been productive. But the Diamondbacks know he's capable of much more. If Carroll were to get hot and rediscover his 2023 form down the stretch, Arizona would almost instantly become one of the scariest teams on the senior circuit. 

The 2024 season has been significantly more challenging for the Braves than any year in recent memory. Atlanta came into the season stacked on paper but seemingly all year have just been decimated by injuries. Key players like Ronald Acuna Jr., Austin Riley, Sean Murphy, Ozzie Albies, and Michael Harris II have all missed significant time on the injured list, which has really hampered the Braves ability to lock down a playoff spot early. Heading into play on 8/21 Atlanta sits 2.5 games ahead of the Mets for the final Wild Card spot in the National League, and with a strong finish over the next five weeks they should be able to hold on to that. To do so, a big September from Jorge Soler would certainly help. In 14 games since returning to Atlanta at the deadline, Soler has already crushed four bombs and driven in 11 runs. With Acuna Jr. and Riley both out for the long haul, Soler's right-handed power has become even more important to this team's offense than it even was at the time of the trade. 

One of the best stories in baseball in 2024 has been the reemergence of lefty Chris Sale, who, after so many injury-riddled seasons in Boston, has found a way to turn back the clock with the Braves. Atlanta acquired the veteran in a winter trade--one is looking extremely one-sided at the moment--and Sale has rewarded them big time. Through his first 23 starts, the 35-year-old has gone 14-3 and pitched to a 2.62 ERA with a 1.00 WHIP. He's been a huge reason why the Braves pitching staff has been able to stay afloat even without Spencer Strider and at times Max Fried, and has been easily this team's most reliable starter. The only concern coming down the stretch is Sale's workload, as he's already thrown more innings than he has in the previous three seasons combined. The Braves might want to back off of him a little soon, but until they can get a firmer grasp on a playoff spot that just won't be an option. 

Sticking with the Braves, one of the few Atlanta everyday players who has not had to miss time on the injured list is their shortstop, Orlando Arcia. With so much uncertainty around who has been in the line-up for this team daily, Arcia is someone the Braves could've used more from without question. At the time I'm writing this, he owns a slash line of 225/.273/.348, and his 30 extra-base hits are significantly down from what he was able to produce a year ago. That said, a big September would go a long way towards making Atlanta fans forget about these first five months and would really help the club in its push towards October. 

The Mets endured such a terrible May that the fact that they're even remotely in a playoff race three months later is nothing short of incredible. New York went on a tremendous run from June 1st through the all-star break, and while they've kind of played around .500 since then, it's hard to ignore that they're firmly in the hunt. Which brings me to Pete Alonso. The slugging Mets first baseman has been one of the sport's most prolific power hitters ever since debuting back in 2019, but his contract year here in 2024 has not gone the way he'd hoped. Alonso's numbers are down across the board, and he's often appeared to be pressing. To date, the 29-year-old has slashed .242/.329/.420 with 27 home runs, 69 RBI, and 28 doubles. His power numbers are noticeably down from where he's consistently been throughout his career, but should he go on a home run tear in September the Mets may just sneak into October. 

Speaking of Mets power bats. As a rookie last season young catcher Francisco Alvarez emerged as one of the brightest young stars in the game, crushing 25 home runs in only 382 at-bats. Unfortunately, 2024 has not been nearly as kind to him. Alvarez missed more than two months this season with a thumb injury, and when he's been on the field he hasn't been nearly as effective offensively. The 22-year-old has struggled to lay off breaking pitches in the dirt and opposing pitchers have consistently peppered him with off-speed pitches out of the strike zone. He recently crushed a walk-off home run against the Orioles, which will hopefully help get him out of his rut. Similar to Alonso, if Alvarez can get hot in September, it would go a long way towards helping the Mets break their postseason drought. 

One of the best moves new Mets President of Baseball Operations David Stearns made last winter was the free-agent signing of veteran right-hander Luis Severino. After a series of injury-riddled seasons across town in the Bronx, Severino has firmly gotten his career back on track in Queens. In his first 24 starts, Severino has delivered a 3.91 ERA with a 1.22 WHIP across 142.2 innings, and he even delivered a complete game shutout against Miami his last time out. In the absence of Kodai Senga, Severino has stepped up as the Mets most reliable starting pitcher, and the team will need him to keep it up over the next five weeks.