20 potential MLB fantasy busts for 2017

What's wrong with Allen? Absolutely nothing based on a track record that includes four straight sub-3.00 ERA seasons and back-to-back 32-plus save seasons. However, he sits in front of arguably the best reliever in baseball in Andrew Miller, so there's no margin for error. That's alarming for a closer who is priced in the top 10.

Bird returns from injury to be New York's likely starting first baseman, but the Yankees also signed Chris Carter late in the offseason. Carter led the NL in home runs last season, while Bird only has 11 MLB home runs to his name. The Yankees have no reason to stick with Bird if he gets off to a slow start.

Diaz came out of nowhere for the Cardinals last season, hitting .300-17-65 in his rookie campaign. Those numbers were particularly surprising after struggling in the minors before last season and being exposed to waivers. He will have to prove last year wasn't a fluke.

A very strong power and speed option before last season, Dozier took his game to another level by hitting 42 home runs and 99 RBI. The power came as a result of a great second-half streak, hitting 23 home runs over the last two months. While still a strong fantasy option, that power could be difficult to repeat, especially if Dozier loses plate appearances being moved out of the leadoff spot.

Estrada has maintained a sub-3.50 ERA in each of the last two seasons despite having home run issues, relying on a low BABIP as a result of his spin rate and deception. That would seem like a risky proposition for long-term success if the long ball continues to hinder him.

Familia led the NL with 51 saves last season, putting together his second straight year as an elite closer. However, he could be set for a suspension after an alleged domestic event in the offseason. Such a suspension could allow Addison Reed, another terrific reliever, to gain momentum as the Mets' closer.

Finnegan has the plus arm you'd expect from a former first-round pick, but his peripherals last season don't support his resulting 3.98 ERA. The lefty allowed an awful 1.5 home runs per nine innings and 4.4 walks per nine innings, which show a more likely ERA above 5.00.

Hendricks was the ERA leader last season at 2.13 and also won 16 games for the Cubs. There's no questioning his pinpoint control, but it's worth nothing that he had nearly identical peripherals in 2015 and produced a 3.95 ERA. Therefore, it's not a great value to pay for last season's numbers.

Hitting had never been a major part of Galvis' game until he hit 20 home runs last season, topping his previous career high of seven. Philadelphia continues to season top shortstop prospect J.P. Crawford, who should replace Galvis sooner than later if the power doesn't continue.

Gomez is being drafted like a closer this spring, but the role is far from assured. Hector Neris emerged late last season, and Joaquin Benoit was added in the offseason after Gomez produced an awful 4.85 ERA in 2016.

Coming off a down year, Greinke has been plagued by decreased velocity this spring. Formerly a very durable ace, Greinke's health started to break down last season, which could be a warning sign.

Gsellman was a savior for the Mets late last season and is likely to win the fifth starter job this spring. However, his minor league history doesn't show much upside, with a career 6.5 strikeouts per nine innings rate. Mixed league owners could turn up disappointed.

There's no denying Manaea's talent, but there's also no denying his injury history, mainly to his hip and lower body. That injury history is likely why the Royals were so willing to move him for Ben Zobrist in 2015 and should make fantasy owners cautious of paying the going rate.

Madson was Oakland's closer for most of last season, but the A's have suggested they'll go with a committee this year after signing former Giants closer Santiago Casilla. Added is Madson's struggles last season, with a 3.62 ERA and sub-7.0 strikeouts per nine innings.

Perez came out of nowhere to hit 13 home runs and steal 34 bases for Milwaukee last season. The production was appreciated, but Perez had a career .664 OPS in the minors and never swiped 30 bases.

Pomeranz is likely to start the year in the rotation due to David Price's elbow injury, but he could have a tough time maintaining a spot if and when Price returns. He struggled after being traded to Boston last season, producing a 4.59 ERA as he had elbow issues and struggled to keep the ball in the park.

Rodney's control has always been inconsistent during his career, and he was terrible after being traded to Miami last season with a 5.89 ERA in 39 appearances. Arizona is trusting him with the closer role, but that seems risky at age 40.

Straily helped the Reds with a 3.76 ERA and 191.1 innings last season, but the peripherals don't support his success. He allowed a league-high 31 home runs and had a mediocre 2.22 strikeout-to-walk ratio. Moving to a larger park like Miami could help, but this is still a poor value.

Villar produced first-round value last season with a league-leading 62 steals along with 19 home runs. The steals aren't foreign to his track record, but Villar had struggled to hit consistently before last season. Paying for last year is very risky.

Watson inherited the closer role last season after Pittsburgh traded Mark Melancon and converted 15 saves on the year. Still, his strikeouts per nine innings rate was below 8.0 for the second straight year, and his ERA metrics showed an ERA above 4.00. After the Pirates signed Daniel Hudson, Watson has some competition if he falters.