25 MLB players who will determine this season's pennant races

The fact that the Brewers are in a heated race to capture the National League Central is not all that surprising, but if I'd told you in February the Reds and Cubs would be the two teams hot on their tail, that may have raised your eyebrows. Milwaukee is certainly the most battle-tested and strongest on paper of the three, but it would really help them pull away if ace righty Corbin Burnes could turn it on. Burnes hasn't been bad by any stretch, but the 3.60 ERA he's posted through his first 24 starts is by far his highest total since becoming a full-time starter. 

Baltimore sports the best record in the American League, and the high-flying O's look poised to secure one of the two byes in the AL. The only team standing in their way of accomplishing that is the pesky Tampa Bay Rays, who at time of writing are just three games behind them in the AL East. First baseman Ryan Mountcastle has been on an absolute tear for two months, and has been particularly dominant in August, slashing .452/.529/.643. He's been an important right-handed bat in the middle of the Orioles lineup for several years now, and if he keep up his current level of production, it could be a fun October in the Charm City. 

The AL Central has been by far the weakest division in baseball in 2023, but all you need to do is get a ticket to the dance in October to make some noise. That's exactly what the Twins are hoping to do, and if they get in, nobody will be excited to face their pitching staff in a short series. Veteran Sonny Gray has quietly been very good for Minnesota this season, pitching to a 3.04 ERA across 136.1 innings through his first 24 starts. The Twins currently have a little bit of cushion over the Guardians in the Central, but the two clubs still have six games left head-to-head, so this race is far from over. 

J.T. Realmuto has long been the standard for two-way catchers in baseball, but it's no secret 2023 has been a challenging campaign for the veteran, particularly offensively. Realmuto's current .249/.313/.464 slash line is by far the weakest of his career, and his power numbers are noticeably down as well. The NL East has long been over with thanks to the Braves dominance, but the defending National League champion Phillies aren't scared to head into October as a wild card again. They're currently in the NL's top wild-card position, but will have to play well down the stretch to hold on — and if Realmuto can get hot, it would really give them a boost. 

Right behind Philadelphia in the wild-card standings is the Giants, and in fact, if the season ended today the two would play each other in the first round. San Francisco got off to a sluggish start but has been playing strong baseball for several months at this point, and are not a club anyone would be eager to play in the postseason. Outfielder Michael Conforto sat out all of 2022 recovering from an injury, and has certainly made an impact in his first year in the Bay Area. At the time I'm writing this he's currently one of three former Mets — along with J.D. Davis and Wilmer Flores — who are tied for the team lead in home runs, and a strong September from Conforto could help the Giants secure a return to October. 

Seeing this picture of Max Scherzer in a Texas Rangers uniform would have been hard to fathom just a few months ago, but that's how far the New York Mets have fallen here in 2023. The return New York got for Scherzer at the deadline was praised by industry rivals, and this could be a trade that works out for both sides. In his first two starts for the Rangers the veteran righty has pitched to a 2.77 ERA, and with Texas headed towards a fierce fight to the finish with Houston for the AL West crown, he certainly has the potential to be a difference maker. 

The Guardians are simply too far behind and have too many teams in front of them for a wild-card berth to even be a remote possibility, making their only path to the postseason an AL Central crown. To accomplish that, they're going to have to really get hot over the final month and a half, and with two series left with Minnesota, they'll have an opportunity. Cleveland's best player, third baseman Jose Ramirez, has had a good year in 2023, slashing .282/.357/.487 with 18 homers and 28 doubles in his first 113 games, but he'll have to take it to a whole other level if he's going to carry this club to October. 

Sticking with the Guardians, Cleveland obviously has its work cut out for it to catch Minnesota, but rookie righty Tanner Bibee could end up having a lot to say about this race before it's over. Since debuting in late April, the Cal State Fullerton product has been the Guardians' best starter, working to a 2.90 ERA in his first 19 starts. He's never thrown more than 132 innings as a professional, and with more than 120 already under his belt in 2023, an innings limit could become an issue. But it sure would be tough for Cleveland to stomach taking him off the mound, particularly with big series against the Twins coming up. 

Justin Verlander's situation essentially mirrors the earlier-discussed Max Scherzer. When he signed in New York with the Mets last winter, the veteran certainly expected to be cruising into October and trying to help the the team make some noise in the postseason. Welp. After a disastrous first four months, the Amazins' made the decision to reset, and Verlander was shipped back to Houston, the club he'd previously won two rings with. In his first two starts back with the Astros the righty has pitched to a 3.46 ERA, and ironically, he now finds himself locked in a heated AL West race with Scherzer's Rangers. 

Reds infielder Elly De La Cruz made his long-awaited MLB debut in early June and instantly became a sensation. Before the All-Star break, De La Cruz was raking, slashing .325/.363/.524 with 15 extra-base hits and 16 steals. As the league has gotten more looks at him, though, his production after the break has been a much different story. In the 28 games since, the switch-hitter has slashed just .195/.254/.398 with nine extra-base hits and two steals. Cincinnati is very much alive in both the NL Central race and the NL Wild Card chase, and if it's going to claim its first postseason berth since 2020 it will need the rookie sensation to rediscover his groove. 

The Giants are trending towards an NL Wild Card berth, but with teams like Miami, Cincinnati, Chicago and Arizona all right behind them, it will take a strong finish for them to qualify for the postseason. San Francisco relies heavily on an offense that gets contributions from a lot of places, and in fact, it doesn't have a single hitter with more than 15 home runs. In tight meaningful games down the stretch, pitching is going to be what makes the difference, though, which leads me to righty Logan Webb. The Rocklin, Calif. native has been this team's best starter for several years now, but the 3.26 ERA he's currently sporting is noticeably higher than where it was in each of the last two campaigns. With roughly nine starts to go, the Giants need to win almost every time Webb takes the mound, and they'll need the veteran to turn it up a notch down the stretch. 

The Baltimore Orioles have been able to ride a dynamic young offensive core to the American League's best record, while getting enough from a relatively unknown pitching staff to keep churning out wins. Young hurlers like Tyler Wells, Dean Kremer, and Kyle Bradish have stepped up to lead this rotation, but every one of those three have already thrown more innings than they ever have — which is where veteran righty Kyle Gibson comes in. The 35-year-old has been okay in 2023, working to a 4.89 ERA in 25 starts with 11 wins on his ledger — though those are largely because of how good the O's offense has been. But if Baltimore starts to ease off some of its young starters down the stretch to keep them fresh for October, Gibson could end up making some big starts for this team as Baltimore tries to hold off the Rays in the AL East. 

Rangers' right-handed hitting outfielder Adolis Garcia has led the American League in RBI for most of this season, though he's currently in the midst of his least-productive month. Midway through August, the 30-year-old has driven in only five runs, largely due to opponents unwillingness to pitch aggressively to him with Josh Jung now on the injured list. Texas currently holds a small 2.5 game lead over the Astros in the AL West in a race that should be exciting all through September and come right down to the wire. A productive Garcia would go a long way towards helping Texas come out on top. 

The Marlins were unfortunately without energetic and exciting center fielder Jazz Chisholm Jr. for more than two months while he recovered from turf toe, but he's been back for a few weeks now and is eager to help Miami get over the hump in their chase for a postseason berth. Since returning, Chisholm Jr. has slashed just .250/.308/.472 with four extra-base hits, but this is player who was an all-star just a year ago and was primed to put up monster numbers in '22 had he not gotten hurt then. At time of writing, the Marlins are a half game ahead of both the Reds and Cubs for the final playoff spot in the National League, and if Chisholm Jr. can round into shape and stay healthy down the stretch it would really help in their effort to reach October. 

As mentioned a bunch already in this gallery, the AL West race may be the most compelling divisional fight remaining, with a pair of heavyweights, the Rangers and the Astros squaring off in a ferocious sprint to the finish. While Houston is currently looking up at their instate rivals, it has reason for optimism considering the most dynamic offensive player involved in the race is its DH, Yordan Alvarez. The big left-handed slugger was slowed by an oblique injury earlier this season but is back now, and he's as big of a difference maker as there is in all of baseball. In well less than half a season's worth of work in 2023, Alvarez has blasted 21 homers and driven in 64 runs already. 

There was not a better starting pitcher in Major League Baseball a season ago than Miami's Sandy Alcantara, who easily cruised to the National League Cy Young award. Unfortunately for him, 2023 has been much less kind. In his first 24 starts, Alcantara has pitched to a 4.09 ERA with a 1.17 WHIP. Opponents are hitting .244 against him as opposed to the measly .212 clip they managed a year ago. His walks are up, his strikeouts are down, and the season has just been a slog in general. But there's still time to flip the script. Miami is involved in a several team dogfight for a National League Wild Card spot, and if Alcantara can rediscover last year's form down the stretch it would go a long, long way towards pushing them over the top. 

The young Reds have certainly outperformed their preseason expectations, but they still have a lot of work to do if they're going to ultimately snag a postseason berth either via the NL Central crown or a Wild Card. Right now, Cincinnati is on the outside looking in, but a potential difference maker for them is nearing a return. Right-handed starter Hunter Greene was the team's first round pick in 2017, and while it took him a while to reach the sport's highest level, he's thrived in 2023. In 14 starts, he's pitched to a 3.93 ERA and struck out 100 hitters in only 73.1 innings, but a hip injury has kept him out since the middle of June. Greene is currently making minor-league rehab starts, and if he can come back and pitch well in September, it would represent a huge boon for Cincinnati's postseason aspirations. 

Cody Bellinger was the MVP of the National League in 2019 before dramatically falling off a cliff over the next several seasons with the Dodgers. He signed a one-year pillow contract with the Cubs as a free-agent last winter in an effort to rebuild his value, and that decision has paid major dividends for him. Thus far in '23, the left-handed slugger has slashed .328/.379/.556 with 18 homers, 59 RBI, 19 doubles, and 17 stolen bases. He's been a huge reason for the Cubs' success, and with Chicago still in the mix for both the NL Central and a wild-card berth, he could have a big say in how the pennant races finish. 

The Brewers currently lead the NL Central and they're widely expected to hold off the Cubs and Reds and take the division crown. And while the majority of the team's offensive pieces have had solid campaigns here in 2023, it's been a rough go for shortstop Willy Adames. Through his first 107 games, the veteran has slashed just .203/.290/.380, and while he's contributed 18 homers, 17 doubles, and 51 RBI, his production has been largely inconsistent. If Adames can put together his best stretch as the season nears its conclusion, this team will be that much more difficult to leapfrog. 

Seattle ended a more than two decade-long playoff drought a year ago, and for most of 2023 it looked like back-to-back October appearances were just not in the cards. The Mariners spun their wheels for most of the first few months of the season, and the team even chose to be sellers at the deadline, Funny how quickly things can change. Seattle has been on a furious run over the last few weeks, and has pulled within 1.5 games of Toronto for the final playoff spot in the American League. Center fielder Julio Rodriguez easily won the AL Rookie of the Year award in '22 when he hit .284 with 28 home runs in 132 games, and while he hasn't been nearly as good as a sophomore, if he can turn it on down the stretch, the M's may just sneak into the postseason. 

Arizona led the NL West for a lot of the first half, but the Diamondbacks have come crashing back down to earth over the last few weeks. That said, at time of writing they're still only 2.5 games out of a wild-card berth with plenty of time left to go on a run and claim a spot. For that to happen they'll need their best players to step up and carry them, beginning with veteran second baseman, Ketel Marte. The switch-hitter has been excellent in 2023, slashing .281/.357/.492 with 19 home runs, 60 RBI, 19 doubles, and seven triples, and for his team to get back in the race, he'll have to kick it up another notch. 

Tampa Bay was the best team in baseball early on, but a plethora of injuries, especially to its pitching staff, have begun to take a toll. The Rays are without four starters: Shane McClanahan, Drew Rasmussen, Jeffrey Springs, and Shane Baz, and have been forced to piece things together. One of their top prospects, righty Taj Bradley, got a chance to start 16 games for them earlier this year and had mixed results, working to a 5.67 ERA in 74.2 innings. He's currently back in the minor leagues but pitching well, and you have to believe he'll be back shortly to help Tampa Bay attempt to chase down Baltimore in the AL East. 

First baseman Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has as much raw power as anybody in baseball, which is why it's downright puzzling how his power numbers have steadily declined over the last few years. Guerrero Jr. crushed 48 long balls in 2021, 32 last year, and here in mid-August has only cleared the fence 18 times. His batting average, RBI, and OBP have all also plummeted during that timeframe, and the Blue Jays simply need him to get back to being a terrifying force in the middle of their lineup. Toronto currently holds a 1.5 game lead over Seattle for the final postseason spot in the AL, with the Red Sox and Yankees not much further behind. If Guerrero Jr. can find a way to get hot and dominate during the final month, it would make Toronto exceedingly difficult to pass. 

For the first four months of the 2023 season, the New York Mets and San Diego Padres were in heated competition for the distinction of the biggest disappointment in baseball. Then the two clubs took dramatically different approaches to the trade deadline. The Mets shipped out almost all of their useful veterans and brought back of horde of highly talented young prospects. The Padres doubled down on their core and even added more veterans to the mix. Midway through August San Diego's season is hanging in the balance. They're 5.5 games out of the final NL Wild Card spot with several teams in front of them. The situation is bleak, and if they're going to stand any chance they'll need left-handed slugger Juan Soto to go on a six-week tear. Thus far, the 24-year-old has slashed .268/.407/.507 with 24 home runs, 75 RBI, and 25 doubles, but the Padres desperately need even more down the stretch. 

The Cubs currently sit just outside the NL Wild Card race and are still within striking distance of the Brewers in the NL Central. But if there's going to be playoff baseball in the Windy City they'll need to go on a late-season run. Marcus Stroman was excellent for Chicago before getting hurt and Justin Steele made the all-star team, but as a whole, the Cubs rotation has been a little shaky. Right-hander Jameson Taillon signed in Chicago as a free agent last winter and has struggled in his first year with the club, pitching to a 5.71 ERA with a 1.39 WHIP in his first 21 starts. That said, the veteran owns a lifetime 4.06 ERA and is clearly capable of better. If he can pitch his best baseball down the stretch, it would go a long way towards helping the Cubs steal one of the last postseason spots.