3 Keys To A Chicago Cubs Wild Card Series Victory Over The San Diego Padres

With the Padres' super-bullpen looming, the Cubs would like to avoid entering the late innings facing a deficit at all costs. That will be easier said than done with San Diego ace Nick Pivetta on the mound to start Game 1, but Chicago does not want to see Jeremiah Estrada, Adrian Morejon, Mason Miller and Robert Suarez pitching with the lead.

That means jumping on the Padres' starting pitchers and making adjustments the second time through the lineup, because the Cubs' hitters are unlikely to face any of San Diego's starters (except Pivetta) for a third time.

With Games 1 and 2 starting at 2 p.m. local, scoring early is even more important because the shadows will creep up beyond home plate and make the ball harder to track by the middle innings.

Keep the ball in the park

With Cade Horton on the Injured List due to a broken rib, the Cubs are forced to rely on the rest of their starting rotation, with veteran left-hander Matthew Boyd starting Game 1. Boyd had been in the midst of a stellar season but has worn down lately, likely due to his heaviest workload by far since 2019.

Among the signs that Boyd is not at his best? He has allowed at least one home run in seven of his last eight starts, after giving up just 11 long balls in his first 23 starts. Shota Imanaga has had an even more pronounced issue with homers, and Jameson Taillon allowed 24 home runs despite two separate stints on the Injured List in the second half.

The Padres are not a particularly power-heavy lineup as only the St. Louis Cardinals and Pittsburgh Pirates have hit fewer homers, but Fernando Tatis Jr. and Manny Machado are a threat to go yard any time. And if the weather conditions at Wrigley favor hitters, Chicago's pitchers will have to prioritize keeping the ball down and limiting pulled fly balls.

Make the right pitching decisions

Every decision is magnified in such a short series, and managers are more likely to make a pitching change at the first sign of trouble. The good news for the Cubs is they have several pitchers who are comfortable taking the mound in any role. Javier Assad, Michael Soroka and Aaron Civale have been both starters and relievers during their careers and can fill multiple innings if Chicago's starters don't last long.

The challenge for manager Craig Counsell is figuring out the right spots for those pitchers, as well as the Cubs' higher-leverage bullpen arms. What's the best role for Daniel Palencia, who was the closer for most of the year but missed most of September with a shoulder injury? Who do you trust with a one- or two-run lead in the ninth? Who's going to face the heart of San Diego's lineup in a tie game in the seventh? Decisions like these can make or break a game and even the entire series.

The same goes for how Counsell will utilize his bench against the Padres' excellent bullpen. Could he bring Moises Ballesteros up for a key pinch-hit plate appearance? Is there a role for utility man Willi Castro, who has struggled offensively since joining the Cubs at the trade deadline? Will Kevin Alcantara be a late-game defensive replacement? All these little things make a big difference when the crowd is hanging on every pitch.