
Coming off a great season in 2025, the Cincinnati Reds gave Emilio Pagan a 1 year/ $10 million deal for the 2026 season. At the time, it was absolutely the right decision. He had just saved 32 games, and his ERA was 2.88. He earned that extension and deserved the trust of the organization and its fan base.
Pagan left Tuesday's game against the Cubs in agonizing pain after just one pitch. They had to help onto the cart and it was clear something was very wrong. It appears to be a devastating hamstring injury. He is a leader of this ball club, and hopefully it will not be a long term set back.
Given this injury and his struggles so far this season, it is time to make a change at the closer position.
Since his major league debut in 2017, he has given up the most home runs by any reliever in Major League Baseball. No other reliever is within 20 home runs given up. His strikeout rate isn't anywhere near where it should be, his velocity isn't great, and he walks way too many batters.
In the postgame interview on Monday night, Pagan stated, "We've played a lot of close ball games. Quite honestly, I haven't held up my end of the bargain."
There are three names that come to mind when talking about stepping into the closer role. The first is Tony Santillan. He has a 2.87 ERA and has pitched in high-leverage spots the past few seasons. He has been about as reliable a reliever as you could have.
The second name is Graham Ashcraft. He has been flat-out fantastic this season, rocking a 1.02 ERA with 19 strikeouts in 17 innings. The last earned run he gave up was against the Rangers on April 3rd. Ashcraft has found his role in the bullpen after being a serviceable starter for the Reds, and has looked good for the most part.
The third and final name would be Connor Phillips. This would be the biggest risk out of the three, but in high-leverage situations, hitters are 0-16 with nine strikeouts this season, and he does have a solid 3.36 ERA. The issue here is that he tends to get in a lot of trouble that he has to get himself out of. Phillips has 19 walks in 17 innings of work. Is that someone you can trust getting the final three outs of the game?
The Cincinnati Reds aren't a team that is going to score many runs. That means wins are going to come down to the ninth inning. Pagan should have a role as a reliever this season, but his role as a closer needs to be looked at by Terry Francona. They simply can't afford blown saves with how competitive the NL Central is, and how tough the National League as a whole is.
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