A Breakout Year Is Coming For Cam Smith

In 2025, 22-year-old Cam Smith posted a .670 OPS in his 493 plate appearances as a rookie. ln 2026, he’s currently rocking a .676 OPS in 144 plate appearances. It might look like two seasons are mirroring one another, but Houston’s right fielder has looked much better in his sophomore season.

For a guy drafted less than two years ago with just over 200 professional games under his belt, Smith has already been through a lot: a trade, a positional change, and adjustments to the quality of pitching at every level.

Since breaking camp with the 2025 Houston Astros, it’s been a roller coaster career for the former third baseman. Although his results haven’t improved much, a breakout is coming.

Stats were taken prior to play on May 6.

Quicker Swings

As a former first-round pick and top prospect, Smith’s quick bat speed was on display in the majors starting in March of last year. He finished his rookie year with an average bat speed of 74.5 mph, good enough to rank in the 84th percentile of the league. This year, things have been different.

Smith’s average bat speed has worked its way up to 77.5 mph in 2026. It’s a three-tick increase from last year, the steepest jump by any hitter. Smith recorded 55 swings of at least 80 mph by the end of April. It nearly surpasses the 60 he posted in all of last season. Now featuring the sixth-fastest swing in the game, some underlying numbers suggest the faster swing is paying off.

Smith’s barrel rate is up 8.2% from last year — 6.9% to 15.1%. It’s the fifth-best increase for any hitter. Despite this, results have not yet come. This is because Smith has had trouble getting the ball to the pull side.

Only 15.4% of Smith’s barrels have been pulled. It’s tied for the second-lowest rate among the 74 hitters with at least 10 barrels. This means a lot of warning track fly balls that don’t leave the yard. Even when barreled, fly balls that are pulled are 30% more likely to result in home runs than those hit straightaway or to the opposite field.

Once Smith starts pulling the ball more, the numbers will come. Until then, the rise in bat speed will bring hope that the breakout will come.

Taking a Step Back

Smith finished the 2025 season by posting a .153 AVG and .479 OPS in his final 59 games of the year. After spending three months as one of the league’s worst hitters, a change needed to be made. So Smith took a step back. Literally.

Throughout 2026, Smith has stood seven inches further back in the batter’s box than he did last year. He went from standing 25.4 inches in the box last year to 32.1 inches this year. Doing this allows him more time to see the ball and to get out in front of it. His average point of contact is back four inches compared to last year, an intended result of this change.

Standing further back in the box has also changed Smith’s average attack angle from 8° last year to 11°. This means Smith’s bat is further through the zone when he makes contact, which enables more fly balls.

Naturally, his fly-ball rate is up six percent from last year. The combination of a higher bat speed and fly-ball rate can explain Smith’s four-percent increase in HR/FB%.

Crushing the Right Pitches

A large part of the reason why Smith struggled through much of last season was his inabilities to hit four-seam fastballs and sliders, the two most commonly thrown pitches to him last year. So far in 2025, that has changed.